Ian Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 nam keeps advertising one in the general region (focused north toward the md/pa border for now) sat night into sunday morn... then there's another that seems to be on its heels 24-36 hrs later. gfs has the idea of both.. maybe moreso the second. fragile.. especially the one furthest out, but the pattern supports it as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 If it doesn't storm I am going to blame Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 If it doesn't storm I am going to blame Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Muppets Chasing Storms potential....yeah...sounds fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 If it doesn't storm I am going to blame Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 In MCS, storm chases you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 In MCS, storm chases you! Oh and If it doesn't storm I am going to blame Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 My plan worked Ian better hope it storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 LWX agrees with EON: SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AS IT SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE AN EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE LWX CWA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IS NOW POSSIBLE. WHILE THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF DC...WHERE LIKELIES WERE ENTERED...HIGH CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO THE BALT-WASH METRO FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MCS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY...THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF PASSING THE APPALACHIANS ARE ALWAYS A QUESTION. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORE DETAILS AND THE SVR POTENTIAL /THE SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2 END WITH THE APPALACHIANS/. MIN TEMPS UPR 60S INLAND...LOW 70S URBAN/NEAR SHORE UNDER THICK CLOUDS. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FURTHER MCS ACTIVITY...BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION IS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. MAX TEMPS UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...DEPENDS ON CLOUDS AND STORMS. MIN TEMPS MID 60S WEST...NEAR 70F EAST.-- End Changed Discussion -- But if it doesn't happen, still blaming Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 The timing kinda sucks but maybe it'll speed up a bit. Rain would be good either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 new nam a bit weaker/earlier with the first and way north with the second.. mcs forecasting ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Midget cyclone. I'd say it was a gridscale feedback error but it's not on the GFS and many SREF members are showing it. It is located along a stationary, front where you'd expect a real MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 0z nam has no first mcs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 sref does but it looks diminishing coming out of the apps based on qpf http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_x12_039s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 sref does but it looks diminishing coming out of the apps based on qpf http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x12_039s.gif ARWS look wayy different than all the other models, likely throwing off the SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 996 over MI. You show them RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 So it appears the MCS potential is lowered significantly. I actually was planning on taking a drive down to film it, as i notice MCS's have alot of lightning, much more then i ever see here locally. would have been a great filming chance. I have seen some amazing lightning shots from many in the region and all of them blow away what i typically get up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Pretty cool twin MCSs in the OH and TN Valleys today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Pretty cool twin MCSs in the OH and TN Valleys today. Any thoughts on Potential for down in your region or this regional sub-forum for the chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Pretty cool twin MCSs in the OH and TN Valleys today. Yeah, I had to save some sat pics with this one. Absolutely amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 gfs seems to like tomorrow during the day now. hard to imagine these s/w passing by can't produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 gfs seems to like tomorrow during the day now. hard to imagine these s/w passing by can't produce something. Ian around what time, As i previously said earlier i am willing to drive down to the region to film for some good storms. I know i am a pain in the ass at times and some dont like me but we all share our passion for the weather and the extremes it has, and i just want to be in the thick of the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ian around what time, As i previously said earlier i am willing to drive down to the region to film for some good storms. I know i am a pain in the ass at times and some dont like me but we all share our passion for the weather and the extremes it has, and i just want to be in the thick of the good stuff. You know where the models are... go take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 You know where the models are... go take a look. I know that, I am also trying to get the perspective of the thoughts of yous in here. I dont want to waste time and money if the thing isnt gonna work out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 I know that, I am also trying to get the perspective of the thoughts of yous in here. I dont want to waste time and money if the thing isnt gonna work out right. I wouldnt plan on driving here for it (if anything happens). Too uncertain. I guess watch tomorrow if the GFS is right tho even that might be mainly a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 hi res ncep models got nada (not surprising given nam). looks like tonight's is dead. they do have a bit of t-storm activity later moving in from the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 LWX evening update: However...the upper-level disturbance is expected to pass through the area overnight while the cold front stalls out near northern Virginia. Warm and humid conditions ahead of the front will provide limited instability overnight. The combination of the instability along with forcing from the upper- level disturbance will likely trigger showers and thunderstorms especially across central Virginia into lower southern Maryland after midnight. Have bumped up probability of precipitation across these areas. Instability and shear should be limited enough to prevent widespread severe T-storms from occurring. However...gusty winds...small hail and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in some of the stronger storms. Convection will be less widespread further north with little or no precipitation expected across northeastern Maryland where the atmosphere will be more stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 LWX evening update: However...the upper-level disturbance is expected to pass through the area overnight while the cold front stalls out near northern Virginia. Warm and humid conditions ahead of the front will provide limited instability overnight. The combination of the instability along with forcing from the upper- level disturbance will likely trigger showers and thunderstorms especially across central Virginia into lower southern Maryland after midnight. Have bumped up probability of precipitation across these areas. Instability and shear should be limited enough to prevent widespread severe T-storms from occurring. However...gusty winds...small hail and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in some of the stronger storms. Convection will be less widespread further north with little or no precipitation expected across northeastern Maryland where the atmosphere will be more stable. we need some rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 bands of rain trying to break out across the dc area now, one overhead.. light (very light) so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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