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GFS MOS will bust too high


Dark Energy

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12z run thu for lga

fri......45..........................actual 42

sat.....45........................actual 41

sun....45

mon.. 46

tue.....44

wed...42

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41.........................actual 42

sat.....42........................actual 40

sun....43

mon.. 41

tue.....41

wed...41

thu....40

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40..................actual 42

Saturday 42.............actual 40

Sunday 42

Monday 41

Tuesday 39

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44.................actual 42

Saturday 45............actual 41

Sunday 44

Monday 44

Tuesday 41

Wednesday 40

Thursday 38

Friday 39

By and large, it is busting too high so far.

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I think most have access to this, as well. That's what living with the Internet does for everyone.

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR

(sample whatever station you like, of course)

i used to use that site for the GFS long range data (interpolations). one night i went on there and my PC was zapped with a nasty virus when i refreshed the page. I've never gone back to the site since. can't trust it.

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i used to use that site for the GFS long range data (interpolations). one night i went on there and my PC was zapped with a nasty virus when i refreshed the page. I've never gone back to the site since. can't trust it.

I don't think it was that site. I don't know, maybe somebody attacked it just that night.

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I don't think it was that site. I don't know, maybe somebody attacked it just that night.

no it was that site. i'm sure of it. do the have ads on that site? it coulda had something to do with that. who knows. This was well over a year ago, maybe even longer than that.

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no it was that site. i'm sure of it. do the have ads on that site? it coulda had something to do with that. who knows. This was well over a year ago, maybe even longer than that.

I use it all the time, here and at work. I never even had a warning message. I don't know where else you can get good data for free like that. Plus, it has the point and click options and has more maps than I can ever get anywhere else.

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i used to use that site for the GFS long range data (interpolations).   one night i went on there and my PC was zapped with a nasty virus when i refreshed the page.  I've never gone back to the site since.  can't trust it.

get AVAST antivirus, best free antivirus out there, better than most you have to pay for.  It will kill any website virus, while still letting you view content.

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12z run thu for lga

fri......45..........................actual 42

sat.....45........................actual 41

sun....45........................actual 37

mon.. 46

tue.....44

wed...42

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41.........................actual 42

sat.....42........................actual 40

sun....43.......................actual 37

mon.. 41

tue.....41

wed...41

thu....40

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40..................actual 42

Saturday 42.............actual 40

Sunday 42...............actual 37

Monday 41

Tuesday 39

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44.................actual 42

Saturday 45............actual 41

Sunday 44..............actual 37

Monday 44

Tuesday 41

Wednesday 40

Thursday 38

Friday 39

Updated above

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Some of those temperatures that were forecast were unreasonably too high, I mean mid 40s in a pattern like this, maybe in mid November, but not in December. Looks like another big bust for today, I wonder what the departures are right now.

This doesn't take anything away from Dark Energy's purpose of this thread because the ensemble mex mos mean still would have been too high. The 00z op GFS MEX MOS run on the morning of the 3rd (the time the thread was started) was warmer than any of the ensemble member's mex mos. It just made it fishing in a smaller barrel.

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12z run thu for lga

fri......45..........................actual 42

sat.....45........................actual 41

sun....45........................actual 37

mon.. 46.......................actual 36

tue.....44

wed...42

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41.........................actual 42

sat.....42........................actual 40

sun....43.......................actual 37

mon.. 41......................actual 37

tue.....41

wed...41

thu....40

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40..................actual 42

Saturday 42.............actual 40

Sunday 42...............actual 37

Monday 41...............actual 37

Tuesday 39

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44.................actual 42

Saturday 45............actual 41

Sunday 44..............actual 37

Monday 44..............actual 36

Tuesday 41

Wednesday 40

Thursday 38

Friday 39

LGA had only a 4 deg diurnal so far today & PHL 6 deg

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12z run thu for lga

fri......45..........................actual 42

sat.....45........................actual 41

sun....45........................actual 37

mon.. 46.......................actual 36

tue.....44.........................actual 38 (never below freezing today so far)

wed...42

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41.........................actual 42

sat.....42........................actual 40

sun....43.......................actual 37

mon.. 41......................actual 37

tue.....41........................actual 36

wed...41

thu....40

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40..................actual 42

Saturday 42.............actual 40

Sunday 42...............actual 37

Monday 41...............actual 37

Tuesday 39.............axtual 36

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44.................actual 42

Saturday 45............actual 41

Sunday 44..............actual 37

Monday 44..............actual 36

Tuesday 41............actual 38

Wednesday 40

Thursday 38

Friday 39

updated for 12/7

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12z run thu for lga

fri......45........................actual 42

sat.....45........................actual 41

sun....45........................actual 37

mon.. 46.......................actual 36

tue.....44.......................actual 38 (never below freezing today so far)

wed...42.......................actual 36

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41......................actual 42

sat.....42......................actual 40

sun....43............... ......actual 37

mon.. 41.....................actual 37

tue.....41.....................actual 36

wed...41.....................actual 35

thu....40

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40.................actual 42

Saturday 42.............actual 40

Sunday 42...............actual 37

Monday 41.............actual 37

Tuesday 39.............actual 36

Wednesday 37........actual 35

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44................actual 42

Saturday 45............actual 41

Sunday 44..............actual 37

Monday 44............actual 36

Tuesday 41............actual 38

Wednesday 40.......actual 36

Thursday 38

Friday 39

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The results are in......

12z run thu for lga

fri......45........................actual 42

sat.....45........................actual 41

sun....45........................actual 37

mon.. 46.......................actual 36

tue.....44.......................actual 38 (never below freezing today so far)

wed...42.......................actual 36

thu....40.......................actual 32

12z run thu for phl

fri......41......................actual 42

sat.....42......................actual 40

sun....43............... ......actual 37

mon.. 41.....................actual 37

tue.....41.....................actual 36

wed...41.....................actual 35

thu....40.....................actual 34

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40.................actual 42

Saturday 42.............actual 40

Sunday 42...............actual 37

Monday 41.............actual 37

Tuesday 39.............actual 36

Wednesday 37........actual 35

Thursday 35..........actual 34

Friday 40...............actual 36

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44................actual 42

Saturday 45............actual 41

Sunday 44..............actual 37

Monday 44............actual 36

Tuesday 41............actual 38

Wednesday 40.......actual 36

Thursday 38.........actual 32

Friday 39..............actual 36

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Anyone see the MEX temps coming up? LOL. with 850 temps and 1000-850 thicknesses so low, they will surely bust at least 3-5F too high. Maybe more. They dont get into reality for NYC until next week. The NAM mos seems closer to reality but the NAM 2m temps are even closer to reality. I know there has been talk of a GFS 2m high temp bias. This may the epic sign of all time for that. LOL.

mission accomplished.

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so for the 12z run for phl the model avg 4 degrees to high

for the mex for phl it averaged 2.1 degrees to high

tony, does mex usually do better in handling temperatures?

Mex (mav) is better than the nam (met) guidance in our area. We were hearing talk about getting Euro mos guidance, but haven't heard anything lately.

The GFS was warmer than the Euro and Canadian next week (mon-wed), could be a repeat performance. If there was snow on the ground, we probably would have lost around 5 degrees each day.

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