Analog96 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 12z run thu for lga fri......45..........................actual 42 sat.....45........................actual 41 sun....45 mon.. 46 tue.....44 wed...42 thu....40 12z run thu for phl fri......41.........................actual 42 sat.....42........................actual 40 sun....43 mon.. 41 tue.....41 wed...41 thu....40 00z mex FRI for PHL Today 40..................actual 42 Saturday 42.............actual 40 Sunday 42 Monday 41 Tuesday 39 Wednesday 37 Thursday 35 Friday 40 00z mex FRI for LGA Today 44.................actual 42 Saturday 45............actual 41 Sunday 44 Monday 44 Tuesday 41 Wednesday 40 Thursday 38 Friday 39 By and large, it is busting too high so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think most have access to this, as well. That's what living with the Internet does for everyone. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR (sample whatever station you like, of course) i used to use that site for the GFS long range data (interpolations). one night i went on there and my PC was zapped with a nasty virus when i refreshed the page. I've never gone back to the site since. can't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 i used to use that site for the GFS long range data (interpolations). one night i went on there and my PC was zapped with a nasty virus when i refreshed the page. I've never gone back to the site since. can't trust it. I don't think it was that site. I don't know, maybe somebody attacked it just that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I don't think it was that site. I don't know, maybe somebody attacked it just that night. no it was that site. i'm sure of it. do the have ads on that site? it coulda had something to do with that. who knows. This was well over a year ago, maybe even longer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 no it was that site. i'm sure of it. do the have ads on that site? it coulda had something to do with that. who knows. This was well over a year ago, maybe even longer than that. I use it all the time, here and at work. I never even had a warning message. I don't know where else you can get good data for free like that. Plus, it has the point and click options and has more maps than I can ever get anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 i used to use that site for the GFS long range data (interpolations). one night i went on there and my PC was zapped with a nasty virus when i refreshed the page. I've never gone back to the site since. can't trust it. get AVAST antivirus, best free antivirus out there, better than most you have to pay for. It will kill any website virus, while still letting you view content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 get AVAST antivirus, best free antivirus out there, better than most you have to pay for. It will kill any website virus, while still letting you view content. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 it has real time protection for websites, emails, IM, and now also for spyware. http://www.avast.com/free-antivirus-download Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 good lord the the mos busted big time today, looks like phl only got to 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z run thu for lga fri......45..........................actual 42 sat.....45........................actual 41 sun....45........................actual 37 mon.. 46 tue.....44 wed...42 thu....40 12z run thu for phl fri......41.........................actual 42 sat.....42........................actual 40 sun....43.......................actual 37 mon.. 41 tue.....41 wed...41 thu....40 00z mex FRI for PHL Today 40..................actual 42 Saturday 42.............actual 40 Sunday 42...............actual 37 Monday 41 Tuesday 39 Wednesday 37 Thursday 35 Friday 40 00z mex FRI for LGA Today 44.................actual 42 Saturday 45............actual 41 Sunday 44..............actual 37 Monday 44 Tuesday 41 Wednesday 40 Thursday 38 Friday 39 Updated above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Some of those temperatures that were forecast were unreasonably too high, I mean mid 40s in a pattern like this, maybe in mid November, but not in December. Looks like another big bust for today, I wonder what the departures are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Wow. that is quite a bust by mos yesterday. probably will be the case most of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Some of those temperatures that were forecast were unreasonably too high, I mean mid 40s in a pattern like this, maybe in mid November, but not in December. Looks like another big bust for today, I wonder what the departures are right now. This doesn't take anything away from Dark Energy's purpose of this thread because the ensemble mex mos mean still would have been too high. The 00z op GFS MEX MOS run on the morning of the 3rd (the time the thread was started) was warmer than any of the ensemble member's mex mos. It just made it fishing in a smaller barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z run thu for lga fri......45..........................actual 42 sat.....45........................actual 41 sun....45........................actual 37 mon.. 46.......................actual 36 tue.....44 wed...42 thu....40 12z run thu for phl fri......41.........................actual 42 sat.....42........................actual 40 sun....43.......................actual 37 mon.. 41......................actual 37 tue.....41 wed...41 thu....40 00z mex FRI for PHL Today 40..................actual 42 Saturday 42.............actual 40 Sunday 42...............actual 37 Monday 41...............actual 37 Tuesday 39 Wednesday 37 Thursday 35 Friday 40 00z mex FRI for LGA Today 44.................actual 42 Saturday 45............actual 41 Sunday 44..............actual 37 Monday 44..............actual 36 Tuesday 41 Wednesday 40 Thursday 38 Friday 39 LGA had only a 4 deg diurnal so far today & PHL 6 deg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 PHL's bust isn't as awful as the one up at LGA...ouch 10 degrees based on the run from 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 PHL's bust isn't as awful as the one up at LGA...ouch 10 degrees based on the run from 12z Thursday. Odd set of guidance because PHL was lower than LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z run thu for lga fri......45..........................actual 42 sat.....45........................actual 41 sun....45........................actual 37 mon.. 46.......................actual 36 tue.....44.........................actual 38 (never below freezing today so far) wed...42 thu....40 12z run thu for phl fri......41.........................actual 42 sat.....42........................actual 40 sun....43.......................actual 37 mon.. 41......................actual 37 tue.....41........................actual 36 wed...41 thu....40 00z mex FRI for PHL Today 40..................actual 42 Saturday 42.............actual 40 Sunday 42...............actual 37 Monday 41...............actual 37 Tuesday 39.............axtual 36 Wednesday 37 Thursday 35 Friday 40 00z mex FRI for LGA Today 44.................actual 42 Saturday 45............actual 41 Sunday 44..............actual 37 Monday 44..............actual 36 Tuesday 41............actual 38 Wednesday 40 Thursday 38 Friday 39 updated for 12/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 it would of been interesting to see how these numbers would of changed if we had some snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 it would of been interesting to see how these numbers would of changed if we had some snow on the ground. MOS accounts for that too, to an extent, so that would have been lower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 MOS accounts for that too, to an extent, so that would have been lower too. If there was snow on the ground when the model run started yes, but lets say 5" fell on 12/5, then for those runs that are being verified, I believe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 12z run thu for lga fri......45........................actual 42 sat.....45........................actual 41 sun....45........................actual 37 mon.. 46.......................actual 36 tue.....44.......................actual 38 (never below freezing today so far) wed...42.......................actual 36 thu....40 12z run thu for phl fri......41......................actual 42 sat.....42......................actual 40 sun....43............... ......actual 37 mon.. 41.....................actual 37 tue.....41.....................actual 36 wed...41.....................actual 35 thu....40 00z mex FRI for PHL Today 40.................actual 42 Saturday 42.............actual 40 Sunday 42...............actual 37 Monday 41.............actual 37 Tuesday 39.............actual 36 Wednesday 37........actual 35 Thursday 35 Friday 40 00z mex FRI for LGA Today 44................actual 42 Saturday 45............actual 41 Sunday 44..............actual 37 Monday 44............actual 36 Tuesday 41............actual 38 Wednesday 40.......actual 36 Thursday 38 Friday 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The results are in...... 12z run thu for lga fri......45........................actual 42 sat.....45........................actual 41 sun....45........................actual 37 mon.. 46.......................actual 36 tue.....44.......................actual 38 (never below freezing today so far) wed...42.......................actual 36 thu....40.......................actual 32 12z run thu for phl fri......41......................actual 42 sat.....42......................actual 40 sun....43............... ......actual 37 mon.. 41.....................actual 37 tue.....41.....................actual 36 wed...41.....................actual 35 thu....40.....................actual 34 00z mex FRI for PHL Today 40.................actual 42 Saturday 42.............actual 40 Sunday 42...............actual 37 Monday 41.............actual 37 Tuesday 39.............actual 36 Wednesday 37........actual 35 Thursday 35..........actual 34 Friday 40...............actual 36 00z mex FRI for LGA Today 44................actual 42 Saturday 45............actual 41 Sunday 44..............actual 37 Monday 44............actual 36 Tuesday 41............actual 38 Wednesday 40.......actual 36 Thursday 38.........actual 32 Friday 39..............actual 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The results are in...... so for the 12z run for phl the model avg 4 degrees to high for the mex for phl it averaged 2.1 degrees to high tony, does mex usually do better in handling temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Anyone see the MEX temps coming up? LOL. with 850 temps and 1000-850 thicknesses so low, they will surely bust at least 3-5F too high. Maybe more. They dont get into reality for NYC until next week. The NAM mos seems closer to reality but the NAM 2m temps are even closer to reality. I know there has been talk of a GFS 2m high temp bias. This may the epic sign of all time for that. LOL. mission accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 so for the 12z run for phl the model avg 4 degrees to high for the mex for phl it averaged 2.1 degrees to high tony, does mex usually do better in handling temperatures? Mex (mav) is better than the nam (met) guidance in our area. We were hearing talk about getting Euro mos guidance, but haven't heard anything lately. The GFS was warmer than the Euro and Canadian next week (mon-wed), could be a repeat performance. If there was snow on the ground, we probably would have lost around 5 degrees each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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