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GFS MOS will bust too high


Dark Energy

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Anyone see the MEX temps coming up? LOL. with 850 temps and 1000-850 thicknesses so low, they will surely bust at least 3-5F too high. Maybe more. They dont get into reality for NYC until next week. The NAM mos seems closer to reality but the NAM 2m temps are even closer to reality. I know there has been talk of a GFS 2m high temp bias. This may the epic sign of all time for that. LOL.

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Nothing new there, those things are always horrible in the medium-long range when there is going to be an unseasonal cold or warm pattern....too often as well the NWS forecasts do not undercut or increase them...largely because the longer range is generally lower priority, especially if a significant current weather situation is happening.

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Nothing new there, those things are always horrible in the medium-long range when there is going to be an unseasonal cold or warm pattern....too often as well the NWS forecasts do not undercut or increase them...largely because the longer range is generally lower priority, especially if a significant current weather situation is happening.

Yea, this pattern with the trof aloft over the NE is just a good pick for the GFS MOS to bust. But i heard about its bias twds being too warm with the upgrade so i thot it warranted a thread.

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Anyone see the MEX temps coming up? LOL. with 850 temps and 1000-850 thicknesses so low, they will surely bust at least 3-5F too high. Maybe more. They dont get into reality for NYC until next week. The NAM mos seems closer to reality but the NAM 2m temps are even closer to reality. I know there has been talk of a GFS 2m high temp bias. This may the epic sign of all time for that. LOL.

For posterity @ PHL:

Today 40

Saturday 42

Sunday 42

Monday 41

Tuesday 39

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

We'll see how bad they'll do in time...FWIW, today's NAM is three degrees HIGHER than the GFS for PHL.

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Anyone see the MEX temps coming up? LOL. with 850 temps and 1000-850 thicknesses so low, they will surely bust at least 3-5F too high. Maybe more. They dont get into reality for NYC until next week. The NAM mos seems closer to reality but the NAM 2m temps are even closer to reality. I know there has been talk of a GFS 2m high temp bias. This may the epic sign of all time for that. LOL.

I strongly agree with this. I've been going well below MOS guidance for this weekend and through next week on my site as well. Lower to mid 40's my foot, ha!

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For posterity @ PHL:

Today 40

Saturday 42

Sunday 42

Monday 41

Tuesday 39

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex for LGA

Today 44

Saturday 45

Sunday 44

Monday 44

Tuesday 41

Wednesday 40

Thursday 38

Friday 39

We'll see how bad they'll do in time...FWIW, today's NAM is three degrees HIGHER than the GFS for PHL.

12z run thu for lga

fri......45

sat.....45

sun....45

mon.. 46

tue.....44

wed...42

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41

sat.....42

sun....43

mon.. 41

tue.....41

wed...41

thu....40

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FWIW, based on the 0z run on Wed night for Thursday the NAM was dead on (42) and the MAV MOS was a degree too cold (41) for yesterday's highs.

IMO, this may be more of a case where climo is smoothing out the anomaly on the cold but I don't think the bust for Philly be more than a couple of degrees based off of the 0z run.

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I think they'll be pretty close to the actual highs up to Wednesday, then they are probably too high for Wednesday through Friday, the only thing is that the low clouds may keep things a couple of degrees cooler, but at the same time, the lows may be a bit higher. Low 40s look good up to about Wednesday, Wednesday and Thursday could see the coldest weather overall, I don't see a lot of places around here topping 40 for highs. Many locations away from the coast, the higher elevations will probably struggle to rise above freezing for highs.

I think places like PHL and and NYC may only get into the 33-35 range for highs.

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FWIW, based on the 0z run on Wed night for Thursday the NAM was dead on (42) and the MAV MOS was a degree too cold (41) for yesterday's highs.

IMO, this may be more of a case where climo is smoothing out the anomaly on the cold but I don't think the bust for Philly be more than a couple of degrees based off of the 0z run.

I would agree, NYC could reach the low 40s based on the forecast 850mb temps, we're also working on the assumption that the gfs cold bias above the surface is not occurring at this time. The GFS warm bias at the surface is literally skin deep. Its not even showing up at the 1000mb level. If we ran relative to normal maps for sfc, 850 mb, 700mb, etc it probably would show more cold the farther up we go. There is no surface high bypassing the Great Lakes. I've seen GFS MOS bust badily with snow cover in December, IMO its too high (LGA), but not epically too high. We'll know more next week. ;)

post-623-0-61504500-1291383960.png

post-623-0-84124200-1291383971.png

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For a comparison, you can see how NYC did in the first few days of January this year when we had a very similar pattern to what were going to see in the coming days. Cold high temps, but average low temps at best due to the constant pressure gradient winds. 850s will be generally similar, probably can add a couple degrees at the surface for early December vs. January. Not a bad ballpark to consider alongside the mos.

http://www.meteo.psu...2010/us0102.php

One things for sure, it's gonna feel a hell of a lot colder regardless with the winds. I suppose being a couple degrees off on the temperatures may not matter to people when it's going to feel 10 degrees colder with the wind chill anyway. I'll be at the Giants game on Sunday, the "swirling winds" as they say will be in full force.

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Anyone see the MEX temps coming up? LOL. with 850 temps and 1000-850 thicknesses so low, they will surely bust at least 3-5F too high. Maybe more. They dont get into reality for NYC until next week. The NAM mos seems closer to reality but the NAM 2m temps are even closer to reality. I know there has been talk of a GFS 2m high temp bias. This may the epic sign of all time for that. LOL.

This is obvious. If the gridded data is way different than the MOS, the MOS is likely wrong. It's an easy red flag, especially beyond 3 days out. Depending on cloud cover, I wouldn't be surprised if many locations in the NYC area struggle to break freezing on Thursday.

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yea.. Thursday appears to be the coldest of all the days next week. I'd be pretty surpised if NYC got to 40 with 850 temps in and around the -14 to -16 range. Even if you had the most incredible mixing and downsloping, I really couldn't see us doing better than mid 30's.

See post above. I would be surprised if NYC got to 35.

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I find it really strange how the GFS was usually too cold over the last month or so with temperatures, but all of a sudden when it comes to a persistent strong cold air mass, the GFS suddenly seems to have a warm bias... If I was to make an extended forecast for mid-late next week, I'd go slightly colder than the GFS at first, then adjust the forecast to match the GFS by Thursday, with highs in the lower 30s very possible as far as NYC when the cold is at its strongest. Even HPC is showing lower 30s for NYC for Day 7, and they tend to be conservative. The most conservative forecast at this time seems to be from Upton, which is going with highs in the upper 30s, even warmer than the GFS which seems to be the warmest model at this time.

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12z run thu for lga

fri......45..........................actual 42

sat.....45

sun....45

mon.. 46

tue.....44

wed...42

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41.........................actual 42

sat.....42

sun....43

mon.. 41

tue.....41

wed...41

thu....40

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40..................actual 42

Saturday 42

Sunday 42

Monday 41

Tuesday 39

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44.................actual 42

Saturday 45

Sunday 44

Monday 44

Tuesday 41

Wednesday 40

Thursday 38

Friday 39

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This is obvious. If the gridded data is way different than the MOS, the MOS is likely wrong. It's an easy red flag, especially beyond 3 days out. Depending on cloud cover, I wouldn't be surprised if many locations in the NYC area struggle to break freezing on Thursday.

Obvious to another met, yes, to the avg person who looks at the mos, no.

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This is kind of a strange statement. What people, other than mets and hobbyists, actually look at MOS (or even know what MOS is)?

Greg, quit trolling me ok? im talking about hobbyists who dont know as much as you, since you are so smart. i didnt make this thread for mets. got it?

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Greg, quit trolling me ok?  im talking about hobbyists who dont know as much as you, since you are so smart.   i didnt make this thread for mets.  got it?

I dont think having a meteorology degee is any indication of intelligence-- especially with some of the morons that are on TV who are supposedly degreed mets.  The people on here are a different matter (well.... most of them lol).

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I dont think having a meteorology degee is any indication of intelligence-- especially with some of the morons that are on TV who are supposedly degreed mets. The people on here are a different matter (well.... most of them lol).

What Alex? Mr. G doesn't do it for ya? tongue.gif How about Audrey Puente or however you spell her name? They have quite an act.

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I dont think having a meteorology degee is any indication of intelligence-- especially with some of the morons that are on TV who are supposedly degreed mets. The people on here are a different matter (well.... most of them lol).

Most of the on-air "mets" have an AMS seal. All you really have to do is pay for the test, take it, and have someone give you the answers.

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Greg, quit trolling me ok? im talking about hobbyists who dont know as much as you, since you are so smart. i didnt make this thread for mets. got it?

I think most have access to this, as well. That's what living with the Internet does for everyone.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

(sample whatever station you like, of course)

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12z run thu for lga

fri......45..........................actual 42

sat.....45........................actual 41

sun....45

mon.. 46

tue.....44

wed...42

thu....40

12z run thu for phl

fri......41.........................actual 42

sat.....42........................actual 40

sun....43

mon.. 41

tue.....41

wed...41

thu....40

00z mex FRI for PHL

Today 40..................actual 42

Saturday 42.............actual 40

Sunday 42

Monday 41

Tuesday 39

Wednesday 37

Thursday 35

Friday 40

00z mex FRI for LGA

Today 44.................actual 42

Saturday 45............actual 41

Sunday 44

Monday 44

Tuesday 41

Wednesday 40

Thursday 38

Friday 39

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