IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 You guys around Orange County must have been closer to that snow/ice demarcation in that winter of 93-94. I got 95% snow from those series of storms in Saugerties, but I remember the city was having mostly ice. None of those storms were huge in a KU sense, but I think the biggest at my place was about 15 inches. I remember one crazy day where we had an overunning event and a cold high seeping low level cold down the HV. We had a snow event where it started snowing at like -8F in Saugerties and peaked at like 10-15F. SWF was also like 10F, but they actually had FZRA at least for awhile. NYC was an ice storm. Yes, we were closer than you but on the right side for most of the winter You're correct there were no KU storms but there was some wild weather. I really wish I kept a detailed weather log but then but I can't go back, I was too busy in college for it then. There was a storm mid January that gave me 6-8" of snow and then changed over to rain, I remember the warm front coming through as I was outside wearing glasses and they fogged up as the warm breeze moved through, it was pretty cool. It then rained for a good part of the day off and on and then the arctic front come through at night. Whatever snow was not cleared off of cars/walks/ roads froze in place. The schools were closed for a week with many road impassable. NYSDOT was using graders to try to scrape the ice off of the roads because it was too cold for road salt to be effective and the other chemical treatments used today were not widely used back then. I'll never forget it. That storm really set up the snowpack for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 All I have to say is wow.. A sub 970mb low tucked under LI is ideal for these parts. Lets hope the 12z euro holds firm with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 All I have to say is wow.. A sub 970mb low tucked under LI is ideal for these parts. Lets hope the 12z euro holds firm with this. If the Euro verifies as depicted, you guys get a once in 50 year or more storm! Sub 970, slowing down, originating from the GOM....30"+ amounts would be common....esp. in the hills.....let's all breathe!!!! Even in CNY, less qpf, but better ratios.....probably 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I can live without the disruption and work heavy snow causes. I can too but now that I have a generator it doesn't 'scare' me nearly as much. All I have to say is wow.. A sub 970mb low tucked under LI is ideal for these parts. Lets hope the 12z euro holds firm with this. It would be sweet. If the Euro verifies as depicted, you guys get a once in 50 year or more storm! Sub 970, slowing down, originating from the GOM....30"+ amounts would be common....esp. in the hills.....let's all breathe!!!! Even in CNY, less qpf, but better ratios.....probably 18" Nice to see you here in this thread! I'd love to see that kind of powder, there would be some wild drifts near my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 So much for that storm, they are doing a radio show tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So much for that storm, they are doing a radio show tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So much for that storm, they are doing a radio show tonight LOL! Combine the radio show and the raging weenies discussing the merits of the JMA and KMA this is a goner..... next. I think if we pick up a few inches from this we'll be lucky. I am not digging the pattern so far this year, not buying the storm making a 90 degree turn to come straight up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I dunno if I can sit through a radio show this soon. Also they won't have the benefit of the ECMWF at that hour and what good will it be to analyze the GFS in it's "brain dead" mode right now. Not saying anything as extreme as the Euro will happen, but I think the GFS is in its dead zone of losing the storm right now. LOL! Combine the radio show and the raging weenies discussing the merits of the JMA and KMA this is a goner..... next. I think if we pick up a few inches from this we'll be lucky. I am not digging the pattern so far this year, not buying the storm making a 90 degree turn to come straight up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I dont have access to the 6 hour ecmwf but if I remember correctly, yesterday it was tracking the low from the deep se due north up to NYC and then ne from there while the gfs tracked the low ne from the coast and ots . Today the ecmwf and the GFS are more or less in track agreement with the low off the mid atlantic coast and then out to the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ECMWF still looks like warning criteria for your area though taken verbatim. Andy made comments on it in the Upstate thread. I dont have access to the 6 hour ecmwf but if I remember correctly, yesterday it was tracking the low from the deep se due north up to NYC and then ne from there while the gfs tracked the low ne from the coast and ots . Today the ecmwf and the GFS are more or less in track agreement with the low off the mid atlantic coast and then out to the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm just sitting tight and hoping that we get in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know years ago there was a young guy that called himself Codman from around SWF (or so)....are any of you him with a new name? Or heard of him... I was just curious. He was on the BB's and IRC for a long time. I'm just sitting tight and hoping that we get in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hey all.. how's it going. I always forget that there's a hudson valley thread and I'm in the hudson valley... i guess.. kind of.. you gonna follow the GFS at the main thread this evening. I'd be happy to give a bit of a play by play in this thread for a change. I've got that sneak peak subscription thingie like Tombo so I can give you a bit of a heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hey all.. how's it going. I always forget that there's a hudson valley thread and I'm in the hudson valley... i guess.. kind of.. you gonna follow the GFS at the main thread this evening. I'd be happy to give a bit of a play by play in this thread for a change. I've got that sneak peak subscription thingie like Tombo so I can give you a bit of a heads up That would be awesome tornadojay!! I have SV subscription, so can generally get the frames a few minutes ahead of NCEP. I will happy throw in some thoughts on the GFS (and Euro if people are still up) in this thread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That would be awesome tornadojay!! I have SV subscription, so can generally get the frames a few minutes ahead of NCEP. I will happy throw in some thoughts on the GFS (and Euro if people are still up) in this thread too. awesome! you got SV too. It's pretty cool. I subscribed about a month ago. I wish it wasn't so pricey but I like the simple to use interface and how it updates without having to hit the refresh button like this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 awesome! you got SV too. It's pretty cool. I subscribed about a month ago. I wish it wasn't so pricey but I like the simple to use interface and how it updates without having to hit the refresh button like this place. yeah, it is a bit pricey, but I like the interface, especially the auto update, and the regional views. Wish it had the 500 Vorticity maps for the Euro though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah, it is a bit pricey, but I like the interface, especially the auto update, and the regional views. Wish it had the 500 Vorticity maps for the Euro though! yea, exactly. I was thinking the same thing. I'm not crazy about the 500 mb chart. Vorticity would be much more helpful. Also, I wish there was jet stream level available too.. unless I'm missing it, I don't recall ever seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I figured I would stop and say hello to my fellow Huson Valley neighbors.I am probably way north of you guys,and for this storm,but hello anyway and good luck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I figured I would stop and say hello to my fellow Huson Valley neighbors.I am probably way north of you guys,and for this storm,but hello anyway and good luck!!! hey! how's it going. hope you get in on some of the snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yea, exactly. I was thinking the same thing. I'm not crazy about the 500 mb chart. Vorticity would be much more helpful. Also, I wish there was jet stream level available too.. unless I'm missing it, I don't recall ever seeing it. No, it doesn't have that either. I think accuweather may have those charts now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 No, it doesn't have that either. I think accuweather may have those charts now though. ahh ok.. i subscribed for a whopping 1 day and cancelled and went to storm vista right after. I thought accu would come out quick, but it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ahh ok.. i subscribed for a whopping 1 day and cancelled and went to storm vista right after. I thought accu would come out quick, but it didn't Interesting... I was going to check Accu out.. I won't now!!! I can handle just waiting a while and seeing the vorticity maps on EWALL in 24 hour incrementts You can kind of depict what is happening with the energy phasing using the H5 charts anyway.. .Not ideal, but the speed of the update more than makes up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well.. here we go with the GFS. hopefully more folks will come in here.. everybody's probably in tombo's thread or the main one... so crowded in there sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Out to 18 on the GFS.. I am comparing to the 12Z Euro since that is our favorable baseline! No major changes vs. the Euro at 30 thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Out to 18 on the GFS.. I am comparing to the 12Z Euro since that is our favorable baseline! No major changes vs. the Euro at 30 thus far cool.. maybe I'll compare to the last run of the GFS and see where any differences start happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 30, the GFS is looking a little slower than the NAM, i think the proceeding frames will tell us if it moves the S/W starts to move at a faster rate, like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 39, the shortwave over texas is a bit northeast of 18z, the northern stream looks fairly similar at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i think the boards may crash lol.. it's getting slow.. i'm sure we'll be breaking attendance records again this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ok... at 42, the GFS is a little faster with the southern S/W than the Euro at 54.. 50 miles or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 45, the northern stream is a bit concerning to me.. it doesn't look oriented to dig quite like it looked at 18z, but let's wait and see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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