Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JB on Accuweather: " U.S. MODELS ABOUT 50 TO 75 TOO FAR EAST Looking at the JMA and Euro has me confident in the ideas, but some adjustments are needed to big city snow amounts, though the heaviest will be west of these cities from D.C. to NYC. The I-95 cities are looking at a 6-12 inch storm with the storm starting as rain then going to a heavy, thumping snow. Snow amounts over 6 inches should reach back as far west as Beckley to Johnstown to Binghamton, where GFS amounts are much lighter, then northeast to north of Eastport, Maine. The storm will probably have some 18-inch amounts over Pennsylvania west of PHL then in southern New England." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JB on Accuweather: " U.S. MODELS ABOUT 50 TO 75 TOO FAR EAST Looking at the JMA and Euro has me confident in the ideas, but some adjustments are needed to big city snow amounts, though the heaviest will be west of these cities from D.C. to NYC. The I-95 cities are looking at a 6-12 inch storm with the storm starting as rain then going to a heavy, thumping snow. Snow amounts over 6 inches should reach back as far west as Beckley to Johnstown to Binghamton, where GFS amounts are much lighter, then northeast to north of Eastport, Maine. The storm will probably have some 18-inch amounts over Pennsylvania west of PHL then in southern New England." There has been some talk in the NYC thread saying that this could still trend a bit more west. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JB on Accuweather: " U.S. MODELS ABOUT 50 TO 75 TOO FAR EAST Looking at the JMA and Euro has me confident in the ideas, JB plays the JMA card I never thought highly of it but someone mentioned in the NYC thread last night that within 72 hours its very good. Who knows if thats correct but we'll see shortly. ]MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 140 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DAYS 1 AND 2... PREFERENCE: GEM GLOBAL OR UKMET THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THIS CYCLONE EAST OF THE ECMWF...WHICH POPS THE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW RIGHT ON THE DELMARVA SHORE 00Z/27 THURSDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET FORCE THE LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE START OF DAY 2...WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY THE BEST FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH HAS FINALLY SETTLED OUT AFTER DAYS OF DISPARATE MODEL SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here is my best guess for this upcoming storm as far as accumulations go for E NYS. I also included an educated hypothesis for 5 selected cities from the Upper HV down to NYC. May or may not update this pending 0z runs Tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here is my best guess for this upcoming storm as far as accumulations go for E NYS. I also included an educated hypothesis for 5 selected cities from the Upper HV down to NYC. May or may not update this pending 0z runs Tonight... Thanks for the input... This looks very reasonable based on where things stand.. I am personally thinking 6" is a good forecast for the SE areas of the NWS Albany forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks for the input... This looks very reasonable based on where things stand.. I am personally thinking 6" is a good forecast for the SE areas of the NWS Albany forecast area. Agree on all counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is what happens when a 1000 \'s of hit NCEP at the same time The NAM says not much snow for us weird run. SREF looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bm555 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like we are in the screw zone here in the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like we are in the screw zone here in the HV. We could be but it's interesting that the latest NAM doesn't have all of the snow that is currently falling to our south. What that means to how the rest of the NAM run acutally plays out tonight remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I had a bad feeling about getting screwed on this storm even though i called for 6" - I think i could bust here and it might never get further north than southern Putnam. We will see. It just amazes me that the same areas of NJ are getting hit again and again... What a winter for them down there.. At some point, this pattern HAS to change to something more climatologically normal.. These sharp cut-offs are really miserable when you are on the wrong side of them.. We are doing much better than last year at this point, but I really feel for the folks in PA who just can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Light snow changing to heavy snow with huge flakes within two minutes with 2/10 tenths of a mile visibility on I87 from Suffern on east in Rockland. Roads are covered. So much for this thing starting late afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Light snow changing to heavy snow with huge flakes within two minutes with 2/10 tenths of a mile visibility on I87 from Suffern on east in Rockland. Roads are covered. So much for this thing starting late afternoon/evening. I can see the sun here!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can see the sun here!!! lol Back home it looked like it was ready to snow, the air was so moist my Pilot was covered in "dew" @19F. The only reason it didn't freeze is its covered in salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12Z NAM has the triple low that it showed last night, I guess its having feedback issues. Upton threw out last nights 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I had a bad feeling about getting screwed on this storm even though i called for 6" - I think i could bust here and it might never get further north than southern Putnam. We will see. It just amazes me that the same areas of NJ are getting hit again and again... What a winter for them down there.. At some point, this pattern HAS to change to something more climatologically normal.. These sharp cut-offs are really miserable when you are on the wrong side of them.. We are doing much better than last year at this point, but I really feel for the folks in PA who just can't catch a break. All good points but I really can't complain with the 15" or so solid snowpack from various storms that I have at home. It's been a while since I've had that. I can see the sun here!!! lol Back home it looked like it was ready to snow, the air was so moist my Pilot was covered in "dew" @19F. The only reason it didn't freeze is its covered in salt The sun was poking out here in Goshen as well but I did count 3 snowflakes about 45 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The sun was poking out here in Goshen as well but I did count 3 snowflakes about 45 minutes ago wow big difference from when I left,The clouds were socked in good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NYZ067-068-270515- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110127T1100Z/ ORANGE-PUTNAM- 1112 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN PUTNAM. * TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY FALLING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For the lower valley MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NJ/NYC METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND/SRN AND ERN CT/RI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 261612Z - 262015Z ONGOING SNOWFALL WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HIGHER RATES FROM NERN NJ THROUGH NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO SRN EXTENT OF CT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. SNOWFALL RATES /UP TO 1 IN PER HR/ WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN CT INTO RI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA SWWD INTO NERN/CENTRAL NJ MAY TRANSITION TO A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. AT 1545Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EXTENDING FROM BWI/PHL NEWD TO NYC AREA INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND. ENELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE 0 C IN THE 750-850 MB LAYER FROM CENTRAL NJ TO THE NYC AREA...RESULTING IN VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF A TRANSITION TO SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY 17-18Z. THESE THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE RUC AND 09Z SREF. FARTHER NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON /20Z/...AND THEN A POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW. ..PETERS.. 01/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still waiting for that 4th flake to fall up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You had 3 flakes? Im still waiting on my first one..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This sucks at 9am I was just getting into Ramsey and hit heavy snow so I came back home to Monroe to work from home. Just finally getting light snow here now. Clouds are lowering so hopefully we get into some better stuff soon. What happened to the days when NYC And NJ got 6 inhes of slop while HV got all snow and a foot? LOL. Oh well I can't complain as we have still done great here this winter. But I feel for you guys further north. Still plenty of winter to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And as I was typing it has now become a moderate snow. Hopefully I can push it up your way fellas. : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 You had 3 flakes? Im still waiting on my first one..lol And in the past 20 minutes I've seen numbers 4, 5, and 6 and they brought their friends too, very light snow has commenced in Goshen, probably won't last long though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This sucks at 9am I was just getting into Ramsey and hit heavy snow so I came back home to Monroe to work from home. Just finally getting light snow here now. Clouds are lowering so hopefully we get into some better stuff soon. What happened to the days when NYC And NJ got 6 inhes of slop while HV got all snow and a foot? LOL. Oh well I can't complain as we have still done great here this winter. But I feel for you guys further north. Still plenty of winter to go though. Those days are long gone my friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And in the past 20 minutes I've seen numbers 4, 5, and 6 and they brought their friends too, very light snow has commenced in Goshen, probably won't last long though. This one isn't for us,. Its backed off a lot here in Rockland, light snow now. Temps seem to be around 32, most of what came down this moring is quickly melting away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Those days are long gone my friend... Appears so. Up is down! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I saw some interesting images for us in other threads from the HRRR. I'm not famailr with this model but I did find it and ran some loops, tonight could get interesting if this model has a clue. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/reflectivity.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This one isn't for us,. Its backed off a lot here in Rockland, light snow now. Temps seem to be around 32, most of what came down this moring is quickly melting away How much did you get down there in Rockland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Lets start a new thread... This one is 50 pages long.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Lets start a new thread... This one is 50 pages long.. go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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