Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The sub zero party was ended around here though as the clouds have now come in. Up to 0F now..... Temps. are busting on the low side. REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1100 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH CLEAR 1 -2 85 VRB3 29.86S MONTGOMERY CLEAR -3 -7 82 CALM 29.84F POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 0 -3 87 CALM 29.87F ALBANY CLOUDY 6 3 87 CALM 29.88F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The sub zero party was ended around here though as the clouds have now come in. Up to 0F now..... Time to break out the suntan lotion and shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 -5 atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 -5 atm Wow.. Your droppin like a rock! I saw MGJ @ -3 as well.. Currently 0.6* here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow.. Your droppin like a rock! I saw MGJ @ -3 as well.. Currently 0.6* here... Droping like a rock, you should see my guests, this ain't supposed to be amateur hour...,.up to - 4.5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 My low was -10! I didn't expect it to be that low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it got to -8 at the airport (KPOU), haven't checked what my weather station got down to yet, but currently it shows -2F right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Flurrries and 4F here now. We clouded up and had a half inch of fluff snow here in the pre-dawn. The low back around midnight was -8.5C. I think it got to -8 at the airport (KPOU), haven't checked what my weather station got down to yet, but currently it shows -2F right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't know exactly what I got down to last night but the local high school made it to 3*. When I drove by there last night on the way home it was 10 and when I got home it was 6 so "extrapolated" I'm guessing I got to about -1 So, what's the current thinking for Wednesday? I like the map DT put up that has the lower HV in 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't know exactly what I got down to last night but the local high school made it to 3*. When I drove by there last night on the way home it was 10 and when I got home it was 6 so "extrapolated" I'm guessing I got to about -1 So, what's the current thinking for Wednesday? I like the map DT put up that has the lower HV in 12+ I really don't know what to think about Wednesday's event... I think we see some snow, but I have a feeling that we are going to get fringed.. I like the Euro and it's ensembles last night, but I don't know if I buy it yet.. I will be watching the 12Z guidance closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Got down to -3.8 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I really don't know what to think about Wednesday's event... I think we see some snow, but I have a feeling that we are going to get fringed.. I like the Euro and it's ensembles last night, but I don't know if I buy it yet.. I will be watching the 12Z guidance closely. Yea I hear you. Heavy QPF sounds like mixing may be an issue. No mixing then light QPF. What do you make of the 12Z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea I hear you. Heavy QPF sounds like mixing may be an issue. No mixing then light QPF. What do you make of the 12Z NAM? NAM looks like it might hit us lightly to moderately, but I just can't look at that model with any seriousness beyond like 60 hours!! The GFS looked better than it's 6Z run, but the energy swinging across the great lakes is still pushing the trajectory to our east too much. Right now, I am kind of taking the op runs with a pinch of salt and hugging the ensembles... With this many options on the table, and this much complexity, the ens are the only way to try and make sense of this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM looks like it might hit us lightly to moderately, but I just can't look at that model with any seriousness beyond like 60 hours!! The GFS looked better than it's 6Z run, but the energy swinging across the great lakes is still pushing the trajectory to our east too much. Right now, I am kind of taking the op runs with a pinch of salt and hugging the ensembles... With this many options on the table, and this much complexity, the ens are the only way to try and make sense of this IMO. Thanks! 57 models and nothing on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks! 57 models and nothing on! I see what ya did there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I see what ya did there My brain is clearly not working properly this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Low of 1 this moring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 -8 this morning at KPOU (don't know if that's been mentioned yet) and expected to get even colder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 My brain is clearly not working properly this morning! It was a reference to a Bruce Springsteen song with the lyrics "57 channels and nothing on" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 135 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 VALID JAN 23/1200 UTC THRU JAN 27/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY... PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWF THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE REGARDING TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS...WHICH PRODUCED A FAST AND DEEP OUTLIER SOLUTION...HAS TRENDED WEAKER/SLOWER...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. THUS...ITS SOLUTION IS IGNORED. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE NEW UKMET/GEM REGIONAL...RECOMMEND EITHER THE NAM OR ECMWF. ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST MON-WED... PREFERENCE: MIDWAY BETWEEN UKMET/ECMWF...WITH NAM CLOSE AT 78-84 HRS THE LOW TRACK...AND LIKELY STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AS WELL...APPEAR DIRECTLY RELATED TO BOTH NORTHERN AND UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS ATTRIBUTED TO ITS FASTER/DEEPER SOLUTION ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TO ITS CREDIT...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH ARE BELIEVED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ITS SLOWER/WEAKER SOLUTION ACROSS THE WEST...AND ULTIMATELY...TO A LOW TRACK WHICH IS DEEPER AND JUST NORTH OF THE GFS. THUS...ITS SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. FINALLY...THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER/SLOWER AND TOWARD THE PREFERRED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR ITS SLOWER LOW TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEW ECMWF ALSO SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS...ITS SOLUTION APPEARS EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE AS THE UKMET WHICH WAS THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED SOLUTION SPREAD AND ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL ERRORS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS...RECOMMEND AN INTERMEDIATE POSITION/INFLUENCES FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF. IN TERMS OF NCEP GUIDANCE...THE NAM'S POSITION AT 78-84 APPEARS QUITE GOOD...BUT IS OTHERWISE CONSIDERED TOO FAR SOUTH AND NOT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WITH A SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE 09Z SREF MEAN IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT ANY POINT SINCE THE NAM/GFS PARENT MEMBERS FROM THE 00-06Z CYCLE WERE NOT PREFERRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Temp. at 16.1 as of 6pm. Forcast low of -10 for tonite on the east side of the county,-15 on the west side. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 414 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 ...BITTER COLD... CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-241015- /O.NEW.KOKX.WC.Y.0001.110124T0000Z-110124T1400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 414 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR CONNECTICUT...INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 25 BELOW. * WINDS...AROUND 5 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 15 BELOW. * TIMING...TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Temp. at 16.1 as of 6pm. Forcast low of -10 for tonite on the east side of the county,-15 on the west side. 13 here @ 6PM, currently 12F. I haven't gotten below 1F this winter, tonight might be the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 13 here @ 6PM, currently 12F. I haven't gotten below 1F this winter, tonight might be the night. I think it will be for you. Stay warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 8* now. Guess I shoulda put the new battery in the wifes car. Eh, it's a stick so a little roll start... She'll be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 9* here.. Apparently there is a wind shift boundary running down the Hudson.. Once the boundary moves through (next hour or so), and the wind switches from NW to NE, then the temps will start to drop quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Definitely going to be a cold one in the morning. Keep an ear out to the radio's-could be issues with some school district's who's buses don't have them plugged in for the weekend. I know the district I drove for, mechanics came in as early as 4:30 to get 200+ buses going-some need help big time when it's below 0º. Hope this is the only cold snap like this for the winter-snow I can deal with. Waiting out for a school bus in below 0º weather just stinks. Any calls yet about this up coming storm for this area-or are the models still not in agreement of a big storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Down to 2* here.. Forecasted low of -13*.. Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Currently -9F and dropping steadily..... Down to 2* here.. Forecasted low of -13*.. Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Radders where are you...lol I hear the Euro is a thing of beauty for the area.. >1.5" of qpf... Can you confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's a cold start here. -12º. Too cold for me-heading out to put one of my kids on the bus. Brrrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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