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The Hudson Valley Thread


IrishRob17

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The sub zero party was ended around here though as the clouds have now come in. :devilsmiley: Up to 0F now.....

Temps. are busting on the low side.

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1100 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

HUDSON VALLEY

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

NEWBURGH CLEAR 1 -2 85 VRB3 29.86S

MONTGOMERY CLEAR -3 -7 82 CALM 29.84F

POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 0 -3 87 CALM 29.87F

ALBANY CLOUDY 6 3 87 CALM 29.88F

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I don't know exactly what I got down to last night but the local high school made it to 3*. When I drove by there last night on the way home it was 10 and when I got home it was 6 so "extrapolated" I'm guessing I got to about -1 :whistle:

So, what's the current thinking for Wednesday? I like the map DT put up that has the lower HV in 12+ :weight_lift:

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I don't know exactly what I got down to last night but the local high school made it to 3*. When I drove by there last night on the way home it was 10 and when I got home it was 6 so "extrapolated" I'm guessing I got to about -1 :whistle:

So, what's the current thinking for Wednesday? I like the map DT put up that has the lower HV in 12+ :weight_lift:

I really don't know what to think about Wednesday's event... I think we see some snow, but I have a feeling that we are going to get fringed.. I like the Euro and it's ensembles last night, but I don't know if I buy it yet.. I will be watching the 12Z guidance closely.

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I really don't know what to think about Wednesday's event... I think we see some snow, but I have a feeling that we are going to get fringed.. I like the Euro and it's ensembles last night, but I don't know if I buy it yet.. I will be watching the 12Z guidance closely.

Yea I hear you. Heavy QPF sounds like mixing may be an issue. No mixing then light QPF. What do you make of the 12Z NAM?

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Yea I hear you. Heavy QPF sounds like mixing may be an issue. No mixing then light QPF. What do you make of the 12Z NAM?

NAM looks like it might hit us lightly to moderately, but I just can't look at that model with any seriousness beyond like 60 hours!! The GFS looked better than it's 6Z run, but the energy swinging across the great lakes is still pushing the trajectory to our east too much.

Right now, I am kind of taking the op runs with a pinch of salt and hugging the ensembles... With this many options on the table, and this much complexity, the ens are the only way to try and make sense of this IMO.

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NAM looks like it might hit us lightly to moderately, but I just can't look at that model with any seriousness beyond like 60 hours!! The GFS looked better than it's 6Z run, but the energy swinging across the great lakes is still pushing the trajectory to our east too much.

Right now, I am kind of taking the op runs with a pinch of salt and hugging the ensembles... With this many options on the table, and this much complexity, the ens are the only way to try and make sense of this IMO.

Thanks! 57 models and nothing on!

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

135 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

VALID JAN 23/1200 UTC THRU JAN 27/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES

...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH

TUESDAY...

PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWF

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE REGARDING TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE

LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS...WHICH PRODUCED A FAST AND

DEEP OUTLIER SOLUTION...HAS TRENDED WEAKER/SLOWER...BUT STILL

APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. THUS...ITS

SOLUTION IS IGNORED. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE NEW UKMET/GEM

REGIONAL...RECOMMEND EITHER THE NAM OR ECMWF.

...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST

COAST MON-WED...

PREFERENCE: MIDWAY BETWEEN UKMET/ECMWF...WITH NAM CLOSE AT 78-84

HRS

THE LOW TRACK...AND LIKELY STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AS WELL...APPEAR

DIRECTLY RELATED TO BOTH NORTHERN AND UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES. THE

GFS IS WEAKER AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE

12Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS ATTRIBUTED TO ITS FASTER/DEEPER

SOLUTION ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TO ITS CREDIT...THE GFS HAS

TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM

BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS

INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH ARE BELIEVED TO

CONTRIBUTE TO ITS SLOWER/WEAKER SOLUTION ACROSS THE WEST...AND

ULTIMATELY...TO A LOW TRACK WHICH IS DEEPER AND JUST NORTH OF THE

GFS. THUS...ITS SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. FINALLY...THE NEW ECMWF

HAS TRENDED WEAKER/SLOWER AND TOWARD THE PREFERRED CLUSTER OF

SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR ITS SLOWER LOW TRACK

THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEW ECMWF ALSO SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT

WITH THE PREFERRED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM

ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS...ITS SOLUTION APPEARS EQUALLY

PLAUSIBLE AS THE UKMET WHICH WAS THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. TO

ADDRESS THE CONTINUED SOLUTION SPREAD AND ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL

ERRORS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS...RECOMMEND AN INTERMEDIATE

POSITION/INFLUENCES FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF.

IN TERMS OF NCEP GUIDANCE...THE NAM'S POSITION AT 78-84 APPEARS

QUITE GOOD...BUT IS OTHERWISE CONSIDERED TOO FAR SOUTH AND NOT

SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WITH A SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE

APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE 09Z SREF MEAN IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT ANY

POINT SINCE THE NAM/GFS PARENT MEMBERS FROM THE 00-06Z CYCLE WERE

NOT PREFERRED.

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Temp. at 16.1 as of 6pm. Forcast low of -10 for tonite on the east side of the county,-15 on the west side. :shiver:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

414 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...BITTER COLD...

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-241015-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WC.Y.0001.110124T0000Z-110124T1400Z/

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-

ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

414 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM

EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST

MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR CONNECTICUT...INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON

VALLEY...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. ISOLATED

LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 25 BELOW.

* WINDS...AROUND 5 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS

FALLING TO AROUND 15 BELOW.

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE

VENTURING OUTSIDE.

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Definitely going to be a cold one in the morning. Keep an ear out to the radio's-could be issues with some school district's who's buses don't have them plugged in for the weekend. I know the district I drove for, mechanics came in as early as 4:30 to get 200+ buses going-some need help big time when it's below 0º. Hope this is the only cold snap like this for the winter-snow I can deal with. Waiting out for a school bus in below 0º weather just stinks.

Any calls yet about this up coming storm for this area-or are the models still not in agreement of a big storm?

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