IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z Nam got juicer from last night, a little over .50" for KMGJ. Let's see what the GFS does in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z Nam got juicer from last night, a little over .50" for KMGJ. Let's see what the GFS does in a bit. It certainly did, big difference from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS Albany just upped the amounts for POU 4-8 now. Also took mix out of next week's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z Nam got juicer from last night, a little over .50" for KMGJ. Let's see what the GFS does in a bit. GFS came in with .26 for kmgj & kswf, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS came in with .26 for kmgj & kswf, Hmm, that's half of the NAM and typically one can cut the NAM amounts down a bit but I recently read in one of the threads that the closer the event the the less the NAM is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS Albany just upped the amounts for POU 4-8 now. Also took mix out of next week's forecast. Off topic but I see you have Bruce in your avatar, did you get The Promise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS came in with .26 for kmgj & kswf, MGJ is .38" SWF is .38" NAM/GFS blend would yield a 4-6" storm for the area. Hi-res models are real juicy for this area so I think 4-8" is the way to go at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 MGJ is .38" SWF is .38" NAM/GFS blend would yield a 4-6" storm for the area. Hi-res models are real juicy for this area so I think 4-8" is the way to go at this point.. We're on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MGJ is .38" SWF is .38" NAM/GFS blend would yield a 4-6" storm for the area. Hi-res models are real juicy for this area so I think 4-8" is the way to go at this point.. .26 :axe: I most remember RIF ! Even closer to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.7" IMBY, easy to clean up and it sparkled with the rising sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.5" here. You mean the new Darkness box set that includes The Promise?? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.5" here. You mean the new Darkness box set that includes The Promise?? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A very pretty 4" today. Driveway is getting narrower as the banks get taller and wider. Where to put what's coming next week...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.5" here. You mean the new Darkness box set that includes The Promise?? yes. 3.8 here. I need to pick that up, How are the DVD video's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.8 here. I need to pick that up, How are the DVD video's? I need to make time to watch the concerts but the documentary on Darkness was very good. It's amazing how many songs he wrote for that album to only use a select few, which is why there is this "new" stuff. Also, you can finally buy the album or songs from the 25th Anniversary of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame concert from 2009. I had a bootleg of that from the night that Bruce and the E Street Band were the house band but couldn't get anything from the first night when U2 filled that roll so I was glad to see this available. So I got all of the Bruce, U2, and Metallica stuff but there's plenty others that were involved. A heads up that if you try to get it from iTunes Jungleland is available only with the album only but if you get it from Amazon you can get it as a single along with everything else. It's all worth checking out. Back on topic, the winds have been steadily increasing here, lots of snow blowing off the rooftops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 4" on the dot here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I need to make time to watch the concerts but the documentary on Darkness was very good. It's amazing how many songs he wrote for that album to only use a select few, which is why there is this "new" stuff. Also, you can finally buy the album or songs from the 25th Anniversary of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame concert from 2009. I had a bootleg of that from the night that Bruce and the E Street Band were the house band but couldn't get anything from the first night when U2 filled that roll so I was glad to see this available. So I got all of the Bruce, U2, and Metallica stuff but there's plenty others that were involved. A heads up that if you try to get it from iTunes Jungleland is available only with the album only but if you get it from Amazon you can get it as a single along with everything else. It's all worth checking out. Back on topic, the winds have been steadily increasing here, lots of snow blowing off the rooftops. The documentary was very good, seen it on HBO. Its interesting to see how he used to create the songs, the quality of his music is refleted in that effort. The 25th Anniversary R&R concert DVD's are fantastic. Thanks for the MP3 tip. I noticed the wind picking up on my way in after clearing the driveway. I was getting blown around a bit. Next weeks storm looks like its going to be fun watching it get nailed down on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Heavy snow squall occurring right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Next weeks storm looks like its going to be fun watching it get nailed down on guidance. All the guidance is pointing to something big, are we going to have flashbacks to the end of last Feb....... I'm in a better place if that's the case with my generator ready to go. What could become an increasing concern will be flooding. Next weeks storm looks very juicy and even if we get all snow around here at some point all of that snow plus what we already have will melt and run off. Hopefully we'll have a long gentle thaw in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No to the long gentle thaw. Sorry I'm at the top of a hill so I want it to all run off before the ground thaws so my basement stays dry. Once the ground thaws hydrologic pressure, melting snow and multitudes of springs soak this hill pretty thoroughly. If you live in a floodplain, well, move uphill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I need to make time to watch the concerts but the documentary on Darkness was very good. It's amazing how many songs he wrote for that album to only use a select few, which is why there is this "new" stuff. Also, you can finally buy the album or songs from the 25th Anniversary of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame concert from 2009. I had a bootleg of that from the night that Bruce and the E Street Band were the house band but couldn't get anything from the first night when U2 filled that roll so I was glad to see this available. So I got all of the Bruce, U2, and Metallica stuff but there's plenty others that were involved. A heads up that if you try to get it from iTunes Jungleland is available only with the album only but if you get it from Amazon you can get it as a single along with everything else. It's all worth checking out. Back on topic, the winds have been steadily increasing here, lots of snow blowing off the rooftops. Sorry, just a little more brain dead than usual. The documentary The Promise -- saw it on HBO the first time it was on. Great stuff! The original version of Factory (same music completely different story/lyrics) was so cool. Glad the second version made the album. I was working in a factory at the time during summer break and that song just floored me. It was so dead on. I got the Darkness box set for Christmas. Still have to watch the Houston show DVD but that will mean a mean hangover the next day so some planning is required. Back on topic... Great AFD out of Albany... .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM IN THAT PRODUCT. MONDAY NIGHT...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL BE 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...AND 10 TO 20 BELOW TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NRN GULF...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TUESDAY...THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GEFS MEAN...AND HPC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/NORTHEAST...AS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEEP SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY ERUPT OVER FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY...AS A STRONG H500 UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LATE TUE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great AFD out of Albany... .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM IN THAT PRODUCT. MONDAY NIGHT...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL BE 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...AND 10 TO 20 BELOW TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NRN GULF...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TUESDAY...THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GEFS MEAN...AND HPC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/NORTHEAST...AS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEEP SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY ERUPT OVER FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY...AS A STRONG H500 UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LATE TUE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS. If this pans out-this could be the biggie of this season. Right now some of these parking lots-Shoprite in Fishkill has HUGE snow mounds -there's nowhere left to put it. But if it's tapping the moisture and dragging it north-that's always a dumping around here-just hope we avoid dry slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Before we get to the storm....we have the bitter cold tomorrow night and Monday. I wonder how far below zero it will get in the Mid Hudson Valley. The NWS point forecast says -7F in Saugerties. I am considering going down and putting a space heater in the garage underneath our small house in Saugerties that we rent out. The coldest I have recorded there this January was -2F so it isn't the greatest radiational spot, but tomorrow night looks colder. Back in the super cold winter of 1994, we recorded -24F at that location. My all time record there was -26F in January 1982. In that 1994 outbreak some people in the coldest hollows of Saugerties had -30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I got to 0 this year but it's been 2 years since I've gone below zero, I'm confident breaking that streak but not sure by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Rick it was forecasted at +7 for the Rhinebeck area last night... but our low (milan FD rt 308) -8F . THAT IS A HUGE BUST... Before we get to the storm....we have the bitter cold tomorrow night and Monday. I wonder how far below zero it will get in the Mid Hudson Valley. The NWS point forecast says -7F in Saugerties. I am considering going down and putting a space heater in the garage underneath our small house in Saugerties that we rent out. The coldest I have recorded there this January was -2F so it isn't the greatest radiational spot, but tomorrow night looks colder. Back in the super cold winter of 1994, we recorded -24F at that location. My all time record there was -26F in January 1982. In that 1994 outbreak some people in the coldest hollows of Saugerties had -30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hey Sean...glad you found your way over to this new BB . Wow Re: that -7F. I hope the pipes haven't already had a problem there - but no bad news from the tenant. Tomorrow night definitely looks frigid. Hope we get a good storm next week then. Rick it was forecasted at +7 for the Rhinebeck area last night... but our low (milan FD rt 308) -8F . THAT IS A HUGE BUST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think all the snow cover can insulate away some of the arctic attack.....lose power..then its a big problem very fast.... I worry about this in multiple places as you know each winter..hope to be in town Monday or Tuesday.. - In southern Maine we are being punished for the mild winter of 09-10 this month.... Sean btw 12572 zip forecasted 5 f for the lows overnight.... already 3 and not thinking it will be much warmer around midnight..... Hey Sean...glad you found your way over to this new BB . Wow Re: that -7F. I hope the pipes haven't already had a problem there - but no bad news from the tenant. Tomorrow night definitely looks frigid. Hope we get a good storm next week then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The bottom has dropped out here. Down to -7F. I think we are supposed to get clouds later as a trough moves by....to end this free fall. I think all the snow cover can insulate away some of the arctic attack.....lose power..then its a big problem very fast.... I worry about this in multiple places as you know each winter..hope to be in town Monday or Tuesday.. - In southern Maine we are being punished for the mild winter of 09-10 this month.... Sean btw 12572 zip forecasted 5 f for the lows overnight.... already 3 and not thinking it will be much warmer around midnight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 -2 already, hawaiian shirt party here, nuff said. Hope everyone else is ramroding tonight too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 -2 already, hawaiian shirt party here, nuff said. Hope everyone else is ramroding tonight too! Temps. are busting on the low side. REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1100 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH CLEAR 1 -2 85 VRB3 29.86S MONTGOMERY CLEAR -3 -7 82 CALM 29.84F POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 0 -3 87 CALM 29.87F ALBANY CLOUDY 6 3 87 CALM 29.88F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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