Pitmaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like Wednesday is another "work from home day" for me. : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NAM run today has backed off on the QPF to 0.78 for KSWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I read this as watches going up from ALY.. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=201101101511-KALY-FXUS61-AFDALY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6-10 sounds like a good bet for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro QPF .5 for the whole area .75 straddles the border of NY/CT Moderate hit I would go with a 5-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks for the euro qpf Radders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upton latest [/url] AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 119 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOW REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --SHORTWAVE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING CLOSED LOW ROTATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SW..BUT PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ENSURE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF MIXING UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. WINDS FINALLY ABATE LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPS...SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH...TEMPS AROUND FREEZING FOR HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS AT ALL LEVELS AS TROUGH DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST AND MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A ECMWF/SREF/GFS BLEND HERE...WITH EMPHASIS ON OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THAT SOLUTION CLUSTERS WELL WITH GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES OVERALL. NAM IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH REGARD TO TRACK. NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. NAM IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE...THUS THE WESTERN TRACK. AGAIN...THIS COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD CLUSTERED GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. BY DOING THAT...LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN WESTERN TRACK OF THE NAM PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS STRONGER WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MIXTURE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS WOULD OCCUR IN A NAM SOLUTION WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HEAVY SNOW JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL LI. DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...AND FRONTOGENESIS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE STORM...BANDING AND HEAVIER PRECIP A GOOD BET. ASSUMING A TRACK NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TOTAL FROM NYC EAST. IF NAM IS CORRECT...A SHIFT IN THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE WEST WOULD BE WARRANTED...PLACING BULLSEYE FROM AROUND NYC NORTH AND WEST. AT THIS TIME...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED FAST TRACK TO THE SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. LI AND SRN CT WOULD HOLD ON TO THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL BUT NOT GET TOO DETAILED WITH REGARD TO TIMING YET AS UPPER TROUGH STILL TRIGGERS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...THUS HAMPERING ANY CLEANUP EFFORTS. LOOKING FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES GENERALLY. OF COURSE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER BANDS WHICH IS TOUGH TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. AMOUNTS COULD BE TEMPERED IF A MIX OCCURS OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Andy;s map in his storm thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7912-jan-11th-12th-snow-threat-is-real/page__view__findpost__p__264922 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hopefully it verifies. I just can't believe the way the storm pattern has been since last winter. At least we get in on the action more this season but it really is a pretty incredible stretch for the NYC area. I'll take another 6+" though to add to our snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah it is pretty amazing how the coast continues this run of monster storms. 6-10 looks like a solid call for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah it is pretty amazing how the coast continues this run of monster storms. 6-10 looks like a solid call for the area. It's amazing.. I sometimes feel like it is a cruel joke. I moved up here from Brooklyn in Nov 2009, and ever since then, they have had epic snowstorms This year is certainly better, but I feel like I have yet to experience a more "typical" HV winter, where we cash in as those south and east get relatively screwed with BL issues. Having said that, Feb 26th 2010 still wins in terms of prolific snowfall totals, but as Rob has said, it was a miserable wet snow with so much damage. I am hoping we can get a foot out of this one. West trends are encouraging... We need to see the upper level vort coming across the MW, come in a tad stronger, and the coastal a tad weaker, then the precip shield should expand west a little, and the larger totals would move closer to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's amazing.. I sometimes feel like it is a cruel joke. I moved up here from Brooklyn in Nov 2009, and ever since then, they have had epic snowstorms This year is certainly better, but I feel like I have yet to experience a more "typical" HV winter, where we cash in as those south and east get relatively screwed with BL issues. Having said that, Feb 26th 2010 still wins in terms of prolific snowfall totals, but as Rob has said, it was a miserable wet snow with so much damage. I am hoping we can get a foot out of this one. West trends are encouraging... We need to see the upper level vort coming across the MW, come in a tad stronger, and the coastal a tad weaker, then the precip shield should expand west a little, and the larger totals would move closer to our area. Ahhh... I see whos to blame now.. Whats great is knowing 2/26/10 trumps all these recent KU events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bm555 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ahhh... I see whos to blame now.. Whats great is knowing 2/26/10 trumps all these recent KU events Yes 2-26-10 is still the storm of all storms in terms of accumulations, 34" here in Harriman. Unless there is a sharp cutoff, which doesn't seem likely with this storm, the HV should do well with this storm, even though the soundings look better for the coast. Higher ratios here should put the HV over double digits, depending on the banding. Upton right now has me in the 8" range with a qpf of around .70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My Call for the HV and WNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 My Call for the HV and WNE I'm just south of your map, near KMGJ but I think I get what you're thinking, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Finally a snowfall map out of NWS Albany http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1000 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 1000 AM...FLURRIES STILL TAKING PLACE BUT RADAR RETURNS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. APPARENTLY SOME SORT OF SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS GOING ON WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS...AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM UPSTREAM. LOW CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN SHIPPED FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE FLURRIES ARE MOVING FROM THE NORTH. THE H20 LP ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBLE VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE. EITHER WAY...INNOCUOUS SNOW AND CERTAINLY NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE UPCOMING STORM. MENTION FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM THE CD NORTHWARD. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOKS FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST. THE COASTAL STORM AS OF 1000 AM...WAS SITTING ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE STORM IS ALREADY TIED INTO THE VORTICITY TRAIL TRAILING NORTHWEST FROM IT...ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX BACK TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My Call for the HV and WNE I assume the 14-18 range extends down to Dutchess, Putnam, Westchester, Rockland and Orange? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 1148 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone got the 12z ECMWF precipitation totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone got the 12z ECMWF precipitation totals? 0.5 for the area... it backed off due to a weaker surface low.. I think at this juncture a 5-9 or 6-10 range is a sensible forecast.. I hope I bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks. Does sound a little lower than 0z. Hope it trends west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 0.5 for the area... it backed off due to a weaker surface low.. I think at this juncture a 5-9 or 6-10 range is a sensible forecast.. I hope I bust low. Hey Radders, I 'm getting from some other threads that theres another storm around this time next week, did you see anything with that, snow around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Radders, I 'm getting from some other threads that theres another storm around this time next week, did you see anything with that, snow around here? Yeah, there is something brewing around 180 hours that points to a low pressure developing on an arctic front... Looks like it could be interesting for our area, especially to our north. Higher heights/thicknesses would take NYC out of the game verbatim right now, but obviously this is a ways out. What is your prediction for tonight? I would be happy with anything in the 6-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I too would be happy with 6-10 but would like more so I don't have to go to work early tomorrow. I really want this to start and end later so I don't have to go in at all. I really expect the trip into the city to suk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Finally a snowfall map out of NWS Albany http://www.erh.noaa....now_PNS/WSW.htm Does anyone have the link for the similar map out of upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does anyone have the link for the similar map out of upton? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, there is something brewing around 180 hours that points to a low pressure developing on an arctic front... Looks like it could be interesting for our area, especially to our north. Higher heights/thicknesses would take NYC out of the game verbatim right now, but obviously this is a ways out. What is your prediction for tonight? I would be happy with anything in the 6-10 range. I threw 8-12" out there a couple of days ago and haven't really strayed from it although I was thinking, this morning anyway, that western Orange may be around 6". I think that higher ratios will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I threw 8-12" out there a couple of days ago and haven't really strayed from it although I was thinking, this morning anyway, that western Orange may be around 6". I think that higher ratios will save us. High ratios FTW! Albany snow map shows me straddling the 11" contour in Dutchess. We will see. I think there could be some surprises (good and bad!) with this storm. Such an explosive set-up. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Love this latest AFD from Albany. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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