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The Hudson Valley Thread


IrishRob17

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IMO this is another one heading for the snow bulls eye of the Hudson Valley and Catskills. I think when all is said and done LI has P-type issues. Maybe NYC stays all snow....

Got down to 10 last night. Now the eyes turn to the Tues-Wed event. Looks to be trending closer to the coast. Nice write-up by OKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

405 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY INCREASING...

LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A

SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN

OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND

ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK

AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z

WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A

CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING

FOLLOWED.

THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN

AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED

FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION

ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY

TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER

THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND

PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH

THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM

RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A

KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE

RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER

MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR

A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE

GFS.

BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE

1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL

BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO

HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS

INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE

REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN

PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS

CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH

WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE

FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE

LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS

WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS

IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW.

STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID

CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW

DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER

STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

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IMO this is another one heading for the snow bulls eye of the Hudson Valley and Catskills. I think when all is said and done LI has P-type issues. Maybe NYC stays all snow....

Agree, It's not etched in stone yet. More of a west shift will bring those p-type issues to LI but more love for us to the north and west of NYC.:arrowhead:

Also, OKX getting a little stronger with their wording.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A

COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST

BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR

STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE

LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF

THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE

STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE

THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN

NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF

THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK

CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME.

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I hope we do get it-and LI gets buried. Sadistic-nope. Just want the guy who owns our company to share in the wealth-he wants us all to come in-even in snow emergencies. As long was we don't lose power over it all-it could be a snow of epic proportions. :)

Seriously, I am liking what I am reading, but we are still a few days out. I'd like to see us again in the bullseye and no dry slots come in. Right now we are down at 25º and still cloudy. Happy Snow Watch!

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I too was informed that unless it's illegal for me to be out on the roads I'm expected to be at work. The owner is out of the country with his son (asst. mgr) and my other assistants wife is expecting ~20th. My luck she'll pop a bit early :arrowhead:

So did anybody get a look at 0 and 6z info yet? Looks like the jackpot might be ever so slightly east/northeast of us but we look to do alright with a foot or more by the end of the day Wednesday.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1123 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED.

LATEST 12Z DATA CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES

AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK

HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE

MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR

CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT.

DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH

DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS.

SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE

SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN

CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE

SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE

FCST.-- End Changed Discussion --

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How are temps in the upper levels? Surface temps? Ratios? You da man! :)

850s look to be -8C for the area, don't have great graphics so they could be a cooler than that, but we are easily in that contour.

Surface temps are you would expect, are in the mid 20s, maybe lower 20s since this is mainly and overnight hit...

I would say we get decent ratios up here given those stats.

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850s look to be -8C for the area, don't have great graphics so they could be a cooler than that, but we are easily in that contour.

Surface temps are you would expect, are in the mid 20s, maybe lower 20s since this is mainly and overnight hit...

I would say we get decent ratios up here given those stats.

Very nice... Thanks..

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850s look to be -8C for the area, don't have great graphics so they could be a cooler than that, but we are easily in that contour.

Surface temps are you would expect, are in the mid 20s, maybe lower 20s since this is mainly and overnight hit...

I would say we get decent ratios up here given those stats.

Thanks for the breakdown.:thumbsup:

here is the 12z NAM for KSWF showing 1.19 of QPF thru 84 hrs. 850s just a touch warmer.

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt

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I agree 100%.. I can do without the wind. Even without the NAM most models print out a good 8-12" snowfall for the area.

You're going to have very nice ratios up there. Even down here in Southern Westchester at 350' elevation, I'm thinking at least 12:1 ratios for this storm since 850s are like -6C, and I expect the storm to occur overnight which should hold temperatures in the mid 20s. This is another cold storm like 12/26, albeit with less wind, which should promote better dendrite formation. I'm liking the chances for 8-12" for NYC metro including the extreme NW areas...you might see a little less QPF than LI, but you'll be vastly colder.

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You're going to have very nice ratios up there. Even down here in Southern Westchester at 350' elevation, I'm thinking at least 12:1 ratios for this storm since 850s are like -6C, and I expect the storm to occur overnight which should hold temperatures in the mid 20s. This is another cold storm like 12/26, albeit with less wind, which should promote better dendrite formation. I'm liking the chances for 8-12" for NYC metro including the extreme NW areas...you might see a little less QPF than LI, but you'll be vastly colder.

Completely agree with your thoughts... If things stay as they are, I would say a good 8-12" for the area.

BTW, did you see the 15Z SRFs? Very bullish.. Some of the members clobber the mid hudson valley, especially north of here up towards Albany.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

427 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES INTO MON...SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY

EXPECTED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT STRATOCU ATOP THE INVERSION...AND

MIXING BELOW RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY NW WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MON NIGHT.

UNDERCUT COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS

I NORMALLY WOULD FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS...SINCE A 15-20 KT

NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MECHANICAL

TURBULENCE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE

IN LATE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR

SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER

TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z

NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM

THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED

BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2

INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS

PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF

THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL

FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON

THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY

RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF

HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z

WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH

ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET

GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND

COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED

PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR

MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN

REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL

SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD.

WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING

THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH

GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE

BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY

WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE

TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM.

THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6

INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS

WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE

THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL...

AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY

MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO

PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Albany

THE NEXT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE A PHASING OF THE CURRENT GULF COAST

SYSTEM...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN

ROCKIES. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN UNUSUALLY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS

SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE

COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND

POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT

JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO

EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL

GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM

UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE

FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS

OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE

BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM

WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM

ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE.

WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE

CONVERGENCE AND ADVECION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES

LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND

ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C

TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE

ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS

TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+

PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT

WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST

HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST

IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW

ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD

COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS

IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. AREAS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE HUDSON

VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK

VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN

CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWS AS

THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE STRENGTHENING

OFFSHORE SYSTEM. AGAIN...A SLIGHT NORTHWEST SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF

THE SYSTEM...AND HEAVIER SNOWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON

VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VT...STAY TUNED.

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