IrishRob17 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year to All!! Let's see if we can all crank up our snow totals and get in on some decent clippers, overrunning and swf events over these next few months Yes, let's! It's a balmy 54 here now, glad this won't last too long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Years ! Hope for some winter fun for everyone but most of all, a healthy and great year to you and your famlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New to all of you also. It hit 42 here today with mostly cloudy skies. 38 now. About 4 to 5 inches of wet snow left in the undisturbed woods. In the open areas plenty of areas with nothing and then the drifts.....biggest about 30 inches. That's where all the snow on my back lawn went. Yes, let's! It's a balmy 54 here now, glad this won't last too long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 56* this afternoon and now 32* and snowing (very lightly.) Hopefully this means winter is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12Z NAM bufkit totals for kswf below lol.I just hope for a few inches to cover the ice pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I hear ya, anything over 3" is bonus to me. Even if it's more of an ice pack rather than snow I love a snowfall on top of snow already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol... 0z NAM FTW.. MGJ -- 1.19" SWF -- 1.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol... 0z NAM FTW.. MGJ -- 1.19" SWF -- 1.14" That would drop a foot for the area. Not bad at all. Sometimes the NAM QPF totals could be overdone. I would cut this in half and still be happy. We'll see. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kswf.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That would drop a foot for the area. Not bad at all. Sometimes the NAM QPF totals could be overdone. I would cut this in half and still be happy. We'll see. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt We also might have ourselves some good ratios to boot.. 12:1 or maybe even 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We also might have ourselves some good ratios to boot.. 12:1 or maybe even 15:1 Could have higher than the 10:1 normal. That could make things up if the NAM is a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like watches are up for the Catskills. Sounds like NWS Albany thinks the amount of downsloping in the upper Hudson Valley is overdone by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Latest NAM 12Z hammers the Catksills and central NY State.. Less for us lower Hudson Valley folk but still a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z Nam KSWF cut the qpt to .49 and prints out 8' of snow relying on mega ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z Nam KSWF cut the qpt to .49 and prints out 8' of snow relying on mega ratios 12z NAM gives SWF .64" I think overall look for a general 6" snowfall for the area with locally up to 10" in some of the intense bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here is a post from Don Sutherland from the main forum that I thought I would share. After having seen the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS for the January 7-9, 2011 event, my initial thoughts in terms of snowfall accumulations are: Albany: 6"-12" Allentown: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Caribou: 4"-8" Concord: 4"-8" Danbury: 3"-6" Harrisburg: 1"-3" Hartford: 3"-6" Islip: 2"-4" New York City: 2"-4" Newark" 2"-4" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Pittsfield: 5"-10" Poughkeepsie: 5"-10" Providence: 2"-4" White Plains: 3"-6" Details are still subject to possible large changes in some cases depending on later data concerning mesoscale banding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z Nam KSWF cut the qpt to .49 and prints out 8' of snow relying on mega ratios Ok I see where the different is. I am assuming the model extract shows raw qpf output and the sounding I posted uses the Cobb snowfall algorithm bufkit add in. Maybe the algorithm manipulates the qpt to adjust for "noise" or nonproductive qpt that evaporates before reaching the ground. The extraction shows qpf for a much long time compared to the sounding. Maybe a met can chime in and explain. http://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94815.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z NAM gives SWF .64" I think overall look for a general 6" snowfall for the area with locally up to 10" in some of the intense bands. I've been watching you and HudsonValley21 post in the NYC threads and sometimes wonder why you guys bother to be perfectly honest. That's not a judgement on the two of you but by how you tend to get treated by some. I've said it before and I'll say it again now, I'm glad we broke out over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've been watching you and HudsonValley21 post in the NYC threads and sometimes wonder why you guys bother to be perfectly honest. That's not a judgement on the two of you but by how you tend to get treated by some. I've said it before and I'll say it again now, I'm glad we broke out over here There is definitely a weird dynamic in that sub-forum.. There are some really good posters over there - e.g. earthlight, tombo, tornadojay, am19psu, ALEX etc.. but there are some folks that seem to want to create a hostile atmosphere.. When I compare it to the New England forum dynamic, it is still night and day. The NE guys always seem so laid back and the banter works well over there, without disrupting the good analysis they also tend to come up with. It's nice to come over here and post outside of the huge "crowds" of people in the NYC forum... I am intrigued by this up coming event, sort of a snow lottery, where there is that outside chance that somebody could get a heavy accumulation, but regardless, it will be nice to see the flakes flying again tomorrow afternoon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've been watching you and HudsonValley21 post in the NYC threads and sometimes wonder why you guys bother to be perfectly honest. That's not a judgement on the two of you but by how you tend to get treated by some. I've said it before and I'll say it again now, I'm glad we broke out over here I remember when a few of us said enough is enough and petitioned to start our own thread. At the end of the day we technically are still part of the NYC metro but snowfall wise its a different world. Its funny how they think Orange county is soo far away yet Suffolk county is "down the block" so to speak..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's cuz we live upstate I work downtown and the people I work with think I live in never never land. "Oh my god it's like 60 miles man, that's far." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You get downsloped to hell on any west or northwest winds there. I know having lived in Saugerties for over 30 years. But this is mainly an easterly component so shouldn't be a problem from the Hudson Valley west. Looks like watches are up for the Catskills. Sounds like NWS Albany thinks the amount of downsloping in the upper Hudson Valley is overdone by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You get downsloped to hell on any west or northwest winds there. I know having lived in Saugerties for over 30 years. But this is mainly an easterly component so shouldn't be a problem from the Hudson Valley west. Yes, having lived here for only 1 year I can safely conclude that NW winds are not good for this area at all when it comes to sustaining decent snow intensities. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's cuz we live upstate I work downtown and the people I work with think I live in never never land. "Oh my god it's like 60 miles man, that's far." 80% of my street by itself consist of city workers... Including myself Distance wise ..Monroe to Manhattan is the equivalent of Smithtown to Manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah though it isn't as hopeless in Wappingers as it is around Kingston to Saugerties. They lie just east of the 3000 Ft plus escarpment and once the wind goes nnw or nw like on the backside of a Noreaster...it shuts right off. Now on the other hand my Dad worked at IBM POU and used to compare the WX.....and that extra 35+ miles inland often helped a lot with changeover situations so it isn't all bad there. Yes, having lived here for only 1 year I can safely conclude that NW winds are not good for this area at all when it comes to sustaining decent snow intensities. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Orange County is really a NYC bedroom area now I guess...though the west end you still see farms etc... Traditionally POU was about the demarcation point between ALB and NYC in terms of media, services etc. and most of Ulster and northern Dutchess got their tv out of Albany. Most of us had never seen a NYC station. POU got both.... Now at some point Nielsen designated the DMA's (designated market areas) and included all of Ulster and Dutchess in NYC Metro. Slowly they just kept shoving it down our throats and putting us in the NYC zone. They dropped the ALB tv stations in much of Ulster and Dutchess. A couple years ago the city run PBS station (13) forced the long time Albany station (17) out of the two counties where they had 50 years of contributors etc. Very few people use antennas so that was basically it. Saugerties and a few towns at the north end of the counties have an exemption to get ALB nets on their cable systems also. This extends beyond TV to every kind of service, etc....they always direct you to call south now to a Westchester or NYC #... even if you are in Saugerties (40 miles from ALB) and 105 miles from NYC. So it goes.... but anyway I live up here now. 80% of my street by itself consist of city workers... Including myself Distance wise ..Monroe to Manhattan is the equivalent of Smithtown to Manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've been watching you and HudsonValley21 post in the NYC threads and sometimes wonder why you guys bother to be perfectly honest. That's not a judgement on the two of you but by how you tend to get treated by some. I've said it before and I'll say it again now, I'm glad we broke out over here Me too. They have some strong posters there as Radders said but is like reading DT's facepage page Its simply a very populated area with lots of people posting. Orange County is really a NYC bedroom area now I guess...though the west end you still see farms etc... Honestly I'd dread doing that commute everyday. Driving? Forget it. Drive to the train, train to Hobbo, PATH, Subway I would if I had to but its like having a second job... I'm at the point .I can;t stand going to Rockland every day now.To the guys who do the city run every day, you have my respect. . What are you guys expecting tomorrow? 4 - 8 sounds good to me at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I remember when a few of us said enough is enough and petitioned to start our own thread. At the end of the day we technically are still part of the NYC metro but snowfall wise its a different world. Its funny how they think Orange county is soo far away yet Suffolk county is "down the block" so to speak..lol Most of my family on Long Island are shocked that we get Saturday Night Live on Saturday night 'all the way up there'. I once met one of my cousins from Suffolk County at The Garden for a concert and it blew her mind that we both got on the train at around the same time in our respected areas and then got to the City at around the same time. I agree with the Rad Man that there are some very good posters in the NYC thread but there are also some real dolts and whiners too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Honestly I'd dread doing that commute everyday. Driving? Forget it. Drive to the train, train to Hobbo, PATH, Subway I would if I had to but its like having a second job... I'm at the point .I can;t stand going to Rockland every day now.To the guys who do the city run every day, you have my respect. . Well being that I work in transit I'm rather familiar with the transit patterns and I honestly don't know how people do it on a regular basis from Orange to Manhattan but more and more people are doing it and some from further than Orange now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have to go into the city on average a couple days a month. If I am really busy I will take a motel such as in Ardsley or like Bellerose, Queens and do a two day stint. I need to get documents for my research business at the courts etc. down there and some can only be obtained terrestrially. Also I occasionally have to testify in Surrogate's Court in one of the boroughs. I can't imagine how anyone could deal with that traffic and pace of life as a regular commuter. I am adept at it .....know the city very well all over, but a couple days is all I could take. LOL I can't tell you how happy I am when I leave it in the rear view mirror and keep driving further and further north. Me too. They have some strong posters there as Radders said but is like reading DT's facepage page Its simply a very populated area with lots of people posting. Honestly I'd dread doing that commute everyday. Driving? Forget it. Drive to the train, train to Hobbo, PATH, Subway I would if I had to but its like having a second job... I'm at the point .I can;t stand going to Rockland every day now.To the guys who do the city run every day, you have my respect. . What are you guys expecting tomorrow? 4 - 8 sounds good to me at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My family came out of Brooklyn and Queens and the diaspora began in about the 1940's. Now I have only a few cousins left Downstate. Some came Upstate such as my father and grandparents about 60 years ago. Others scattered all over. When people moved Upstate such as POU or Kingston in the 1950's they essentially became Upstaters because nobody would consider commuting back to the city. Now you have people commuting 75 + miles and tons of weekend home owners that are only part time Upstaters. Most of my family on Long Island are shocked that we get Saturday Night Live on Saturday night 'all the way up there'. I once met one of my cousins from Suffolk County at The Garden for a concert and it blew her mind that we both got on the train at around the same time in our respected areas and then got to the City at around the same time. I agree with the Rad Man that there are some very good posters in the NYC thread but there are also some real dolts and whiners too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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