TJay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Giddy up! We will be a bit too far west? I think it was the Dec 2003 storm when I had 18" in New Windsor, there was like 6" in Middletown and maybe 3" in Port Jervis. As long as it tracks west of the BM we should do well I think. The bufkit totals are insane - they print out some outrageous ratios during the height of the storm. Earlier I posted them along with the total qpf and snow fall using a simple 12.1 ratio for comparing - even then it was an impressive snowfall. We should have better ratios than the coast due to colder column temps and less wind. Looking at the 0Z NAM it looks like it shifted east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 About 30 to 40 miles southeast as it makes the closest pass to LI. Maybe within model error, but that small shift moved areas west of the HV from 1.25" at 18Z to .75" now.... But it's only one model. As long as it tracks west of the BM we should do well I think. The bufkit totals are insane - they print out some outrageous ratios during the height of the storm. Earlier I posted them along with the total qpf and snow fall using a simple 12.1 ratio for comparing - even then it was an impressive snowfall. We should have better ratios than the coast due to colder column temps and less wind. Looking at the 0Z NAM it looks like it shifted east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 About 30 to 40 miles southeast as it makes the closest pass to LI. Maybe within model error, but that small shift moved areas west of the HV from 1.25" at 18Z to .75" now.... But it's only one model. 18z SREFs did too along with lower probabilities for .3 and .5 qp across ENY. This said I still think during the rapid Intensification period of this storm it will slow (and possibly loop) and/or jog some to the NW more towards BID Sound then pass off to the NW of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 18Z NAM BUFKIT totals KSWF 26.5 KPOU 28.0 0Z NAM cut back QPF KSWF 11.9 snowfall QPF ,89 KPOU 18.4 snowfall QPF 1.09 0Z GFS KSWF 29.5 snowfall QPF 1.31 KPOU 29.7 snowfall QPF 1.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 0Z GFS just looks like an optimal track for the biggest snows in the HV overall. I was a little surprised that qpf amounts tapered so fast west of the HV because it pushes the deformation pretty far west into Central NY at its furthest extent. If it takes that track, I think some of this heavy banding in the deformation is being underdone in terms of the qpf that will actually be realized. The time to really watch is 30-36 hours when the best banding should be sitting over the HV and Catskills. The qpf is underdone IMO. 0Z NAM cut back QPF KSWF 11.9 snowfall QPF ,89 KPOU 18.4 snowfall QPF 1.09 0Z GFS KSWF 29.5 snowfall QPF 1.31 KPOU 29.7 snowfall QPF 1.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Here are some Time Sections (TSEC) from the OOZ GFS. RH is color contoured. Temps are overlayed WITH snowgrowth region highlighted in lavender. Wind barbs usual convention in knots and upward vertical motion contoured in yellow. First station is HUDSON NY, 2nd is POU, 3rd is ALB, last is GFL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 631 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... VERY LIGHT SNOW NEAR KGON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AT 11Z WITH BAND OF PCPN BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DELMARVA AND STRETCHING NEWD. WATER VAPOR INDICATES THIS IS THE WAA ZONE. TD/S STILL IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA. WITH MAIN LIFT S OF THE CWA AND MOISTURE LIMITED OVER THE CWA...WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY AT SUNRISE..WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH NOON. SIGNS OF THIS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AT KMTP WITH CLOSING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOS. 6Z MODEL UPDATE...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUPPORT A GENERAL 12-16 INCH SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON RIVER EAST. BANDING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALIZED 2 FT AMOUNTS. GFS LOW TRACK IS 40-60 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SREF AND NAM. .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES...YET. TWO MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE WIND. SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS ERN LI. MODEL STORM TRACK HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE ECMWF TRACKS ALONG THE 3Z SREF. GFS ABOUT 20MI NW OF THE ECMWF...AND THE NAM SLIGHTLY E OF THE ECMWF. QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL FCST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A GENERAL 6-18 INCHES LIKELY. LEAST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS E...WHERE RAIN DOESNT HOLD THE NUMBERS DOWN. WITH REGARD TO THE RAIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW MAY ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PENETRATE WWD INTO ECNTRL LI. THE TWIN FORKS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. AS THE LOW MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH HOWEVER IT UNDERGOES OCCLUSION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT H85 TEMPS NEVER RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY SNOW BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL LI WWD WILL BE ALL SNOW. THE DEEP LOW WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND FIELD. BL WINDS IN THE GFS OVER 60KT. NAM WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER...BUT THE DEEPER ECMWF GIVES SUPPORT TO THE GFS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-60 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF LI. HAVE KEPT THE WARNINGS INTACT...BUT WILL INCLUDE WORDING STATING THAT AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE THE HIGHEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WILL BE TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL TIME TO OBSERVE WHAT ENSUES OVER THE OCEAN. THE STORM WINDS DOWN MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS IT WILL BE OVER BY 15Z ATTM. DRY WITH LESS WIND TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Trends are a bit east today, I think we have a large drop off the further west of the river you are .Still a decent hit. ATM I think Orange gets 6-12, higher side for elev and/or closness to the thruway and of course Harriman lol, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Blizzard Warning POU!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Trends are a bit east today, I think we have a large drop off the further west of the river you are .Still a decent hit. ATM I think Orange gets 6-12, higher side for elev and/or closness to the thruway and of course Harriman lol, . RUC....SREFS & the MM5 still nail the area with intense banding. I thought I saw something mentioned by HPC that the low is now expected to be riding the western side of solutions. I would say a 10-20" snowfall is possible with the highest amounts near Monroe--Harriman area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow Albany beats Upton with the Bliz inland warnings. I guess Upton will expand a bit more soon maybe Rockland and Putnam and inland CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 DONE! From NYC Office .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON EARLIER THINKING...AND WITH 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON LOW TRACK AND QPF...HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS AND ALSO EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO NYC METRO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG ISLAND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD DELIVER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 15-20 INCHES...LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA SHOULD SEE 12-18 INCHES. WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1 GIVEN INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WITH ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NAM/GFS ALSO IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON MIXING BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY 6-12 INCHES THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 DONE! From NYC Office . Yep kinda surprised Orange was included. I guess the NWS alert system malfunctioned my alert radio didn't go off and I didnt get the orange blizzard warning from the OKX skywarn emaili list.. This is going to be an interesting afternoon/night for sure. First flakes here about 11:30am light snow now for about 20 minutes. The snow is not in flake form, its graupel. 21F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Let's do this! 60mph gusts tonight and Monday possible! The drifting will be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Getting a few flakes here in Kingston...radar shows light precip has reached us. 23 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 1/2" on the ground, wind NNE and temp at 21*. Waiting on the thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ratios are already impressive.. Surface low is clearly west of all 12z guidance and RUC along with the SREFs continue to zero in on the hudson valley for intense banding.. Interesting day/night ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Let's do this! 60mph gusts tonight and Monday possible! The drifting will be awesome. Game on!! I don't remember Orange county was under a Blizzard Warning. Tonite will be insane! Keep those flashlights nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The latest RUC has an extremely optimum position of the 700 mb low. It wraps the deformation banding across all of Eastern NY and reaches as far west as BGM. The surface low sits near Montauk ultimately. It is so wound up that most of SNE gets into a dry slot situation eventually. Ratios are already impressive.. Surface low is clearly west of all 12z guidance and RUC along with the SREFs continue to zero in on the hudson valley for intense banding.. Interesting day/night ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Game time!!! I have been tracking this thing for like 10 days and everything has finally come together - I am staying up for the overnight duration if banding sets up... This is looking to be an epic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm a little skeptical of how far north the heavy bands get... I'm thinking a line from Newburgh to Sharon is as far north/west as the real major accumulations get. Poughkeepsie seems in line for a decent 10" or 12" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Game time!!! I have been tracking this thing for like 10 days and everything has finally come together - I am staying up for the overnight duration if banding sets up... This is looking to be an epic setup. More epic than the snowcaine we had last Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 More epic than the snowcaine we had last Feb? Those 30"+ amounts in that storm were truly epic.. I highly doubt we see those amounts.. Maybe 20-24" if good banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Those 30"+ amounts in that storm were truly epic.. I highly doubt we see those amounts.. Maybe 20-24" if good banding sets up. There will be more drifting with this storm, I'm hoping to see some epic drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm a little skeptical of how far north the heavy bands get... I'm thinking a line from Newburgh to Sharon is as far north/west as the real major accumulations get. Poughkeepsie seems in line for a decent 10" or 12" storm. I think you may be wrong based on the 15z SREF LP track so far west and also jump west on its QPF progs. Just my take. I think POU will definitely get 10-12 but there's a MOD probability 40% for 18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Check the car windows. If they're open, you may face this tomorrow morning. http://www.joe-ks.com/archives_mar2005/SnowCar.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 moderate snow for the last 2 hours, little accm less than 1/2' majority of snow is very small "flakes" - graupel like and very wet. 21F Heard from family on Staten Island, 5+ on the ground. What type of snow structure are you guys seeing?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 moderate snow for the last 2 hours, little accm less than 1/2' majority of snow is very small "flakes" - graupel like and very wet. 21F Heard from family on Staten Island, 5+ on the ground. What type of snow structure are you guys seeing?. Same here. Been snowing little pingers for a few hours (though they're now starting to transition into real flakes) and very little accumulation so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey I wonder if the former "Flurries" from Rochester is around now? Speak up if you are here. He was going to be moving to Dutchess County this year and we teased him about the lower snowfall. But now it would appear that his move has paid off ..at least for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Same here. Been snowing little pingers for a few hours (though they're now starting to transition into real flakes) and very little accumulation so far. Yeah every now and then some larger flakes appear and disappear, never more than 5% I think. Its a concern for large accums. I've had some good radar returns passing over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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