TJay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm thinking 12Z with all data available to the models should bring solutions that agree with each other. Until then, I'm turning in. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ratios should be pretty decent out here as well.... 15:1? 18:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ratios should be pretty decent out here as well.... 15:1? 18:1? Yes, i think so... Looks like a warning criteria snow up here... Given that this is still 100 hours out, I hope we can keep it in this range now... I feel nervous about a further east shift though, but who knows, it could trend west ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know years ago there was a young guy that called himself Codman from around SWF (or so)....are any of you him with a new name? Or heard of him... I was just curious. He was on the BB's and IRC for a long time. Wow, that goes a way back. Yeah, I remember that name but I don't honestly remember from which board, I've been on the various boards since late 1997. Not sure who his was but I haven't seen that name in a long time, that much I know. hey all.. how's it going. I always forget that there's a hudson valley thread and I'm in the hudson valley... i guess.. kind of.. you gonna follow the GFS at the main thread this evening. I'd be happy to give a bit of a play by play in this thread for a change. I've got that sneak peak subscription thingie like Tombo so I can give you a bit of a heads up I'm rarely able to stay up for the overnight runs but I still read through the threads in the morning if theres something of interest, like tese days. So even though i wasn't here last night I enjoyed reading through everyones comments just now, so THANKS! Happy Festivus as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've been perusing the 00z & 06Z GEFS ensembles...some interesting features of note. First both times have near the same amount of members showing a left of track low with 3 showing a hit and 6 a glance. There are now 2 members of the 06z set that are slower with the storm's track and onset. However overall the 06z ensemble/ensemble meant for 06z has a more ene track and appears to track over 120 miles or so south of the New Engalnd BM. Right now I still think we will be dealing with 2 distinct cut-offs with this storm. The first will be where snow doesn't fall and where it does. The second will be within the snow area, that is very light to light accumulation and moderate or heavier amounts. Right now I think the potential for latter accumulation amounts is exist along an Ulster-S'rn Columbia and Duchess Counties east to the S'rn Berkshires and Litchfield county. As for the HV north of Albany I am not too excited for much if any snow fall or snowfall accumulation. I still think time IS on our side for a more widespread snowfall but we'll have to start seeing more ensembles and the ensemble mean shift north and west over the nxt 36 hours. Tomorrow will be telling IMO. If we start to see more of shift then north and west then its game on if we see either more of a shift south and east or the same current mix of data then prospects for what I posted above are more likely, perhaps even less than what I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've been perusing the 00z & 06Z GEFS ensembles...some interesting features of note. First both times have near the same amount of members showing a left of track low with 3 showing a hit and 6 a glance. There are now 2 members of the 06z set that are slower with the storm's track and onset. However overall the 06z ensemble/ensemble meant for 06z has a more ene track and appears to track over 120 miles or so south of the New Engalnd BM. Right now I still think we will be dealing with 2 distinct cut-offs with this storm. The first will be where snow doesn't fall and where it does. The second will be within the snow area, that is very light to light accumulation and moderate or heavier amounts. Right now I think the potential for latter accumulation amounts is exist along an Ulster-S'rn Columbia and Duchess Counties east to the S'rn Berkshires and Litchfield county. As for the HV north of Albany I am not too excited for much if any snow fall or snowfall accumulation. I still think time IS on our side for a more widespread snowfall but we'll have to start seeing more ensembles and the ensemble mean shift north and west over the nxt 36 hours. Tomorrow will be telling IMO. If we start to see more of shift then north and west then its game on if we see either more of a shift south and east or the same current mix of data then prospects for what I posted above are more likely, perhaps even less than what I posted. Thank you for dropping by with this information. In the areas that you mentioned bolded above would that be a stripe of heavier snow or is it from those areas south and east would see heavier snow. Sorry for the kinda IMBY question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thank you for dropping by with this information. In the areas that you mentioned bolded above would that be a stripe of heavier snow or is it from those areas south and east would see heavier snow. Sorry for the kinda IMBY question. No problem. Right now the bolded area that you highlighted IMO stands the best chance for moderate to heavy snow fall (at this time). All this said I still have not and won't come out with any firm numbers this early; probably won't see anything from me until late Saturday at the earliest. We (I) just need to see some more swing W by N in the ensembles over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 No problem. Right now the bolded area that you highlighted IMO stands the best chance for moderate to heavy snow fall (at this time). All this said I still have not and won't come out with any firm numbers this early; probably won't see anything from me until late Saturday at the earliest. We (I) just need to see some more swing W by N in the ensembles over time. Thanks. Completely understand the numbers thing as it's way too early for that sort of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 :gun_bandana: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 :gun_bandana: :axe: Did I miss something??? Is it that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 So much for that storm, they are doing a radio show tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So......What are you folks all thinking with regard to the latest storm threat? High risk, high reward setups like this coastal storm threat make me nervous these days, I just can't get the winter of 2009-2010 out of my head, with all the near misses to our south. Seems with this level of historic blocking in place, it just feels like we might get fringed while those to the south (or east) cash in. The next two days of model consensus building are going to be huge, but at this point, I am not ready to get too emotionally involved yet.. The h5 set up really is beautiful though.. The potential is there for sure. But there is still time for it to trend west!! Rant over, but seriously, I sort of expected this would happen, so didn't get too excited... I will still keep an eye on it though, you never know what might happen next... In the long term, I would not mind seeing this pattern changing and either seeing some miller b's or some sw flow events where we get some 3-6 or 4-8 type storms.. Fed up with these coastal threats.. I want to leverage my latitude to get in on some of the white stuff!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 :blahblah: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Radders is the euro showing a warm up next week?\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Radders is the euro showing a warm up next week?\ Pattern seems to breakdown and we do get warmer per the Euro.. About 200 hours out, there looks to be another MSP special while the east coast warm sectors and torches with a rainstorm followed by a frontal passage lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18Z GFS looked much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z GFS looked much better. Yes it does but didnt wnt to say anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Nice hit on the 12z GFS for the valley rockland then east of the river do very well. Mid western valley does slightly less with a phase just in time to track it west. 12Z NAM does not phase and is farther east. With the GFS standing alone with the hit atm, some drama for the holidays. . Upton's morning disco before the 12Z GFS TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST IS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW...FOR NOW HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA (LIKELY FAR EAST)...BUT EVEN THE GFS BARELY HAS MEASURABLE QPF INTO ORANGE COUNTY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHSN/FLURRIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND USED...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A HIGH END CHANCE TO A LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE SNOW FALL EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND - NOT SAYING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ARE NOT POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...JUST THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THEM IS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IN ORDER TO GET WARNING LEVEL SNOWS WEST OF THE HUDSON...IT WOULD TAKE A SHIFT IN TRACK ABOUT 100 MILES TO THE WEST...THIS IN UNLIKELY BUT STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IT ALSO POSSIBLE (AND MORE LIKELY THAN A 100 MILE WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK) THAT THE STORM COULD TRACK FURTHER EAST THAN FORECAST...BRINGING AT MOST ADVISORY SNOWS TO EASTERN AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Nice hit on the 12z GFS for the valley rockland then east of the river do very well. Mid western valley does slightly less with a phase just in time to track it west. 12Z NAM does not phase and is farther east. With the GFS standing alone with the hit atm, some drama for the holidays. . Did you see this? From BOX AFD: "WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. " Not sure yet how that affects this run if at all, it's still up for debate. Maybe we'll have a better idea after seeing the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did you see this? From BOX AFD: "WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. " Not sure yet how that affects this run if at all, it's still up for debate. Maybe we'll have a better idea after seeing the euro. HPC is disregarding the 12Z GFS solution Said the errors effect GFS, NAM and Euro 12Z runs now we wait again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Check out the 18Z NAM, phases and west but not quite west enough for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Check out the 18Z NAM, phases and west but not quite west enough for NYC. Are you saying that the trend is our friend? Hey, I hope it works out but I also know that in 30 minutes my brother-in-law arrives with the Sam Adams with the rest of the family to follow shortly there after so i won't be able to track much tonight. Merry Christmas to all my weather board buddies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Are you saying that the trend is our friend? Hey, I hope it works out but I also know that in 30 minutes my brother-in-law arrives with the Sam Adams with the rest of the family to follow shortly there after so i won't be able to track much tonight. Merry Christmas to all my weather board buddies! Merry Christmas Rob and everyone else!! The 18Z GFS is a huge hit for the low and mid valley. I honestly don't know what to make of this soap opera of models fliping away, HPC tossing out 12Z GFS because of data errors but not tossing the 12Z NAM that had the same data ingested and now a dream hit on the 18Z GFS. It is truely stange and I feel the same way I did last Feb when we were tracking the snowcane when the models started showing the fully bombed out super storm doing a loop tour of NYC, CT, HV, NEPA, NJ. I don't know what to make of this. OT : I was in Fridays last night and they had a Blue Moon Draft special. It was served with a slice of orange. the beer was unfiltered, it was fantastic. Anyone have a guess as to what Blue Moon version it might have been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Blue Moon is made by Coors. I was surprised to get that fact. I prefer the lime version of Blue Moon,Rising Moon!! It's out in the spring as a seasonal beer. MERRY CHRISTMAS TO EVERYONE!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Blue Moon is made by Coors. I was surprised to get that fact. I prefer the lime version of Blue Moon,Rising Moon!! It's out in the spring as a seasonal beer. MERRY CHRISTMAS TO EVERYONE!!!!!!! It was Belgian White Ale. Wow coors? Thats a shocker given their tasteless, watery mainstream beers I think I'll snek a peek at tonights 12Z runs if I get a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Merry Christmas! Hopefully Santa can keep this thing west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 It was Belgian White Ale. Wow coors? Thats a shocker given their tasteless, watery mainstream beers I think I'll snek a peek at tonights 12Z runs if I get a chance I've actually had that before, it was ok, im more of a lager guy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas my fellow HV posters! I will of course be keeping a watchful eye on the all important 0Z model suite... What a soap opera, but here's to hoping for a nice christmas present from our foreign models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Holy Hudson valley run on 0z gas. There is a peak of qpf here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Holy Hudson valley run on 0z gas. There is a peak of qpf here We NEED consensus from the Euro now... I won't feel comfortable until I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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