Isopycnic Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 One more Mesoscale Discussion 1294< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...CNTRL/SERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191729Z - 191830Z A THREAT OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 17Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER NC/SC...THOUGH A LEADING VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOW PROGRESSING INTO ERN KY/TN...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS QUICKLY ADVANCING EWD...AND WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAR SWRN NC SSEWD INTO CAE...THEN EWD TO NEAR ILM. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN INITIAL FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A TEMPORARILY WEAKENING MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING INTO FAR WRN TN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INITIALLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION...BUT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG FROM GA INTO SC. GIVEN MODEST WLY FLOW...AS CONVECTION BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...EWD PROGRESSING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. ..HURLBUT.. 06/19/2011 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... This seals the deal... nothing here expected. Maybe tomorrow will be wetter here. Good luck SW NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Here comes round two... Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 This seals the deal... nothing here expected. Maybe tomorrow will be wetter here. Good luck SW NC Have you been hanging with Widermann again One day soon I will see a huge blob of red over my house.....one day....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Tornado Watch KY/TN/NC - hail to 2 inches and winds to 80 mph as well. Only cherokee and clay counties in NC are in the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Severe thunderstorm watch now up: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES MDTLY UNSTABLE. INITIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG E/W BOUNDARY SC...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AS STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OH VALLEY APPROACHES AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 This next line of rain is really weakening as it passes over the mountains. Perhaps it will strengthen again once it reaches the sunnier skies of southern NC and into SC. I have barely seen the sun today and thus the instability is just not there for me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The sun popped out here in Spartanburg at around noon. Temperatures have quickly responded as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Still looking anemic out there. I am fearing a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Another crazy day at GSP yesterday. I think that makes for 8 crazy days so far this year. lol. Ferril tho...420 SVRs issued this year, compared to 173 at this time last year. Geez... not to mention you guys at GSP have been ground zero for some of the damage (the most recent being this past Wednesday). This next line of rain is really weakening as it passes over the mountains. Perhaps it will strengthen again once it reaches the sunnier skies of southern NC and into SC. I have barely seen the sun today and thus the instability is just not there for me right now. Seems like a lot of the morning convection across Western North Carolina really killed the instability when the second line came through... however, its likely that the boundary that this MCC generated will push into SC and will strike the match for some more convection this afternoon. I'm working on a blog update and hope to have it up within the hour, as it looks like another pretty active afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Still looking anemic out there. I am fearing a bust. I'm thinking the primary threat will be further into SC where more daytime heating (and less debris from the MCCs that moved through this morning) has allowed a good chunk of the reason to get into some really high CAPE (3000+ in spots per the RUC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I'm thinking the primary threat will be further into SC where more daytime heating (and less debris from the MCCs that moved through this morning) has allowed a good chunk of the reason to get into some really high CAPE (3000+ in spots per the RUC) Yeah that is pretty consistent with the current Mesoanalysis too which is of course RUC based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I can hear thunder...so close...yet so far...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Any chance the activity gets down into Hilton Head, or is this mainly Charleston based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 SPC Short wave upper ridging and convective debris clouds appear to have inhibited more widespread coverage of storms across the ww area...though a vorticity maximum observed on 20z WV imagery over northern Kentucky is gradually progressing eastward...with favorable upper ascent just beginning to glance the ww area. A remnant northwest-southeast oriented outflow boundary remains over SC...while an additional outflow from a decaying mesoscale convective system in western NC is surging southward to near Greer and eastward. Westerly flow has gradually been increasing across the ww area...and should support damaging winds and large hail in association with convection given the presence of moderate instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Here are my thoughts on this afternoons severe weather threat... I still think the stage is set for convective activity as the outflow boundary from the MCC earlier has dropped into the very high CAPE environment of SC, and this should help convection to rapidly blossom over this state into the afternoon hours. http://www.avlweatherblog.com/ Here is the outflow boundary I am alluding too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 It'd be cool if it rained here once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Big hailcore developing on the storm right over Greenville, SC. Heading right for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 ... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 545 PM EDT for east central Greenville and northwestern Laurens counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Wow... certainly didn't expect this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I seen 70knot rotation south-east of Greenville, South Carolina from the NWS Columbia radar. At 531 PM EDT... a tornado was strongly indicated by radar. This tornado was located near Fountain Inn... or 14 miles southeast of downtown Greenville... moving southeast at 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 SPC is optimistic for the Tornado threat in Tennessee. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm has developed upstream of ww 511 along the confluence of the MS/Ohio rivers. Although this has occurred in the wake of a short wave trough over the central Ohio Valley...an apparent weak impulse may be tracking across the mid-MS/lower Ohio Valley...supporting this renewed development. Additional towering cumulus remain noted eastward along outflow boundary extending along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Given presence of strong instability S of the boundary and sufficient westerly middle-level flow for supercells ...a new ww or replacement of ww 511 may be needed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 No surprise from RAH this evening... " WE HAVE CANCELED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A COUPLE OF OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS MCS ACTIVITY HAVE GREATLY STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Ye Olde Fail. I am shocked SPC kept up the slight risk past the 4pm update. This really sucks and now 100F weather is on the way. :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Ye Olde Fail. I am shocked SPC kept up the slight risk past the 4pm update. This really sucks and now 100F weather is on the way. :gun_bandana: Feeling your pain. If we are going to continuously get screwed...bring on winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Ye Olde Fail. I am shocked SPC kept up the slight risk past the 4pm update. This really sucks and now 100F weather is on the way. here. :gun_bandana: FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Have you been hanging with Widermann again One day soon I will see a huge blob of red over my house.....one day....lol Nope, just calling it as I see it... a bust x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Here's a picture of a wall cloud from the tornado warned stormed over Greenville. This was taken from my parents house in Simpsonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 We managed to eek out a nice little storm earlier this afternoon here at the beach , couple pretty good wind gusts , nice light show and even managed to spit a couple peasized hail stones ,,, Not to shabby all things considering .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 This was taken in Mauldin, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Tornado Watch extended to our west in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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