June part 2

[UNCCmetgrad]

Hey all, thought this was a very cool program I found on DT's facebook page. Its free so all you have to do is register. Here is the link. Enjoy!

Simuawips.com

[Lookout]

Well I wasn't around to see it but my area FINALLY saw some appreciable rain..and severe weather too. That line the other night dropped about 1.25 and caused quite a bit more wind damage..including a tree in my neighbor's yard being taken out. It also bent my flagpole some. I don't recall ever seeing so much wind damage around here in a single year.

Plus I was told power was knocked off for about 10 hours. I was really irritated I was going to miss that line moving through (was in gainesville at the time) but I don't regret not sitting here with no power for 10 hours. It was knocked out around 7 pm and didn't come back on till nearly 5am from what I was told and that would have sucked big time because I can't sleep without a fan.

Meanwhile, I didn't get to see much in gainesville. The area I was at went through the narrowest and weakest part of the line. Just a few miles to the south in cumming it was an entirely different ballgame from what I was told. At least I got to see some awesome lightning.

I had another brief t-shower last evening. Didn't last but about 10 minutes though and got about 0.15. For the first time in a very long time, things are a little greener. Still need a lot more though as lakes have dropped quite a lot.

[FoothillsNC]

Going to be an active day in TN, Al, GA for certain, and then what happens with the MCC directly following this one, is even stuming SPC. Right now the cloud tops are diminishing /warming with the one dropping into TN but , but only barely, and actually just may be phase cycle, and reform strongly somewhere else. No one really knows yet, but the second one already has a Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) and those are really amazing in their lifespan, since they can travel many miles (several states) and maintain and actually create their own environment, so that's definitely a feature to watch today and tonight. There's instances where they hit the Atlantic and develop into tropical storms (not saying that will happen of course...just an idea of how strong and dynamic they are). Just looking at the 6 hour loop, its possible this turns into a major derecho for the Tenn Valley and part of the Southeast today. I'm surprised there are no watches out yet anywhere. I'm certain boxes will pop up soon though. With LI's very negative and strong shear, the cold pools are probably going to propogate easily south and southeast bound this afternoon. If I were drawing a line, it would be all of TN into northern half of GA, Al and ne MS. For now and then wait and see for the Carolinas tonight.

[Isopycnic]

Going to be an active day in TN, Al, GA for certain, and then what happens with the MCC directly following this one, is even stuming SPC. Right now the cloud tops are diminishing /warming with the one dropping into TN but , but only barely, and actually just may be phase cycle, and reform strongly somewhere else. No one really knows yet, but the second one already has a Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) and those are really amazing in their lifespan, since they can travel many miles (several states) and maintain and actually create their own environment, so that's definitely a feature to watch today and tonight. There's instances where they hit the Atlantic and develop into tropical storms (not saying that will happen of course...just an idea of how strong and dynamic they are). Just looking at the 6 hour loop, its possible this turns into a major derecho for the Tenn Valley and part of the Southeast today. I'm surprised there are no watches out yet anywhere. I'm certain boxes will pop up soon though. With LI's very negative and strong shear, the cold pools are probably going to propogate easily south and southeast bound this afternoon. If I were drawing a line, it would be all of TN into northern half of GA, Al and ne MS. For now and then wait and see for the Carolinas tonight.

[widremann] I'm pretty sure it will miss central NC [/wideremann]

[november rain]

Going to be an active day in TN, Al, GA for certain, and then what happens with the MCC directly following this one, is even stuming SPC. Right now the cloud tops are diminishing /warming with the one dropping into TN but , but only barely, and actually just may be phase cycle, and reform strongly somewhere else. No one really knows yet, but the second one already has a Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) and those are really amazing in their lifespan, since they can travel many miles (several states) and maintain and actually create their own environment, so that's definitely a feature to watch today and tonight. There's instances where they hit the Atlantic and develop into tropical storms (not saying that will happen of course...just an idea of how strong and dynamic they are). Just looking at the 6 hour loop, its possible this turns into a major derecho for the Tenn Valley and part of the Southeast today. I'm surprised there are no watches out yet anywhere. I'm certain boxes will pop up soon though. With LI's very negative and strong shear, the cold pools are probably going to propogate easily south and southeast bound this afternoon. If I were drawing a line, it would be all of TN into northern half of GA, Al and ne MS. For now and then wait and see for the Carolinas tonight.

Just wondering about a time line to watch for development here in the Union, Gaffney area this evening. May need to tune up the chain saw and battery up the flashlights if its gonna be anything like the last batch

[buckeyefan1]

Mesoscale Discussion 1274< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NERN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...SWRN NC AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181338Z - 181515Z STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA AND SWRN NC. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPANSIVE MCS FROM THE TN/KY BORDER WWD TO SERN MO IS MOVING SSEWD AT 25 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM NASHVILLE...BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA INDICATED 2000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION. AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THROUGH THE 80S...LITTLE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING. FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER MODEST...BUT SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2011 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

[Psalm 148:8]

Going to be an active day in TN, Al, GA for certain, and then what happens with the MCC directly following this one, is even stuming SPC. Right now the cloud tops are diminishing /warming with the one dropping into TN but , but only barely, and actually just may be phase cycle, and reform strongly somewhere else. No one really knows yet, but the second one already has a Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) and those are really amazing in their lifespan, since they can travel many miles (several states) and maintain and actually create their own environment, so that's definitely a feature to watch today and tonight. There's instances where they hit the Atlantic and develop into tropical storms (not saying that will happen of course...just an idea of how strong and dynamic they are). Just looking at the 6 hour loop, its possible this turns into a major derecho for the Tenn Valley and part of the Southeast today. I'm surprised there are no watches out yet anywhere. I'm certain boxes will pop up soon though. With LI's very negative and strong shear, the cold pools are probably going to propogate easily south and southeast bound this afternoon. If I were drawing a line, it would be all of TN into northern half of GA, Al and ne MS. For now and then wait and see for the Carolinas tonight.

I was wondering about timing too....say around atl and south.....planning a father's day fish fry with the fish they caught on the deep sea trip last weekend....big family event.....asking you because I got more faith in you than most mets.

[Psalm 148:8]

Mesoscale Discussion 1274< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NERN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...SWRN NC AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181338Z - 181515Z STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA AND SWRN NC. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPANSIVE MCS FROM THE TN/KY BORDER WWD TO SERN MO IS MOVING SSEWD AT 25 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM NASHVILLE...BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA INDICATED 2000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION. AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THROUGH THE 80S...LITTLE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING. FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER MODEST...BUT SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2011 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

exactly the area Footlhills said.....see....your're awesome Robert!

[FoothillsNC]

Just wondering about a time line to watch for development here in the Union, Gaffney area this evening. May need to tune up the chain saw and battery up the flashlights if its gonna be anything like the last batch

I was wondering about timing too....say around atl and south.....planning a father's day fish fry with the fish they caught on the deep sea trip last weekend....big family event.....asking you because I got more faith in you than most mets.

As Buckeye fan just pointed out the new discussion is out. Its odd to have 2 MCC so close together and the 2nd one is a big rainmaker already in Ill, Mo and western KY, yet it's holding its on with severe despite going over worked over environment already. All I can tell you is to pay attention to the meso disc. from SPC as they're usually good, and try to stay up with the radar today. I don't know if one will decay at the expense of the other, or both will maintain, or they join as one. Any blend of the three is possible, also a lot of times the initial squall line fizzles but the outflow ahead of it or near it can instigate a new line quickly....seen that already several times as well. With it arriving at peak heating and intensity, its going to get ugly and maybe devastating for some counties if the full range of potential gets realized...meaning a swath of 70mph+ winds will be possible and very large hail, Pretty much whats happened a lot this season.

This one may be different because of how much 5H energy is lined up to come east right after this one, so I'm pretty sure as soon as this one is out of the picture, yet another one develops quickly. The ridge over southern MS and LA will help to steer this east and southeast as time wears on, despite the models keep going east (like RUC,...but that won't happen, esp this first set). There's good dynamics and very strong 5H support with divergence over eastern TN and GA especially this afternoon, so this could really develop if the 2 don't interact and interfere with each other's development. We'll see soon. As for what happens on the east side of the Apps, usually these have strengthened but this one is tougher, just wait and see how it looks later on. Could be another major downburst/straightline wind event esp. in SC again.

[november rain]

Looking at the Tri-City Tenn radar site it looks as if a line is forming with a general East to SE movement

[Marion_NC_WX]

Weather Watches now out for East Tennessee and WNC until 6 pm...

[buckeyefan1]

I'm not looking forward to days two through seven

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND

CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100

DEGREES COULD COMBINE WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY AND RESULT IN HEAT

INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES...SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[1234snow]

I'm hoping that this first complex can hold together, unlike the one Wednesday which weakened and developed further south.

[LithiaWx]

Ready for some action today!!! Thanks for all the insight today guys, it's much appreciated.

[FoothillsNC]

The line dropping south in western TN right now looks really strong. Cloud tops show no sign of warming yet on IR and cloud tops are over 55K !!

[jrips27]

It looks to me like the first MCC will miss me to the east if its current heading holds. I guess I'll have to hold out hope that the second line gives me some excitement. Thanks for the great discussion this morning!

[FoothillsNC]

with those 55K tops in TN,

AT 1058 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE

STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF

MCKENZIE TO BRADFORD TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWBERN...OR ALONG A

LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF MCKENZIE TO 12 MILES

NORTHEAST OF TRENTON TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF DYERSBURG...AND

MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

Also, very strong wording coming from GSP:

UPSTREAM MCS OVER SRN KY IS EXHIBITING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND

DRAMATICALLY INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINE. HAND

ANALYSIS OF THE MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS +16 DEG C H8 DEWPOINTS

POOLED UP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND A GOOD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX BEHIND

IT. THEREFORE...THE LINE SHOULD BOTH SURGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

THE BEST MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE LINE PRETTY MUCH

RUNS RIGHT THROUGH THE FA ATTM AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NRN GA HAVE

DELAYED WARMING. THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE LINE IS ABOUT 35 KTS

AND THE NAM CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT A BRISK SE MOVEMENT.

MOST INTERESTINGLY THE WORKSTATION WRF-ARW HAS INITIALIZED ALMOST

PERFECTLY WITH THE LINE...AND IT BRINGS IT ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING

ABOUT 18 UTC OVER THE NC MTNS...WITH THE COLD POOL SPREADING RAPIDLY

ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS LOOKS

VERY REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT AIRMASS

CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND

EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA

FOR THE AFTN HOURS AS THE MCS SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. I/VE GREATLY

INCREASED POPS AND ADDED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WORDING TO ALL THE

ZONES AS A RESULT. SPC IS ALREADY CONSIDERING A WATCH BOX FOR PART

OF THE FA.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looks to my amateur eye that both mesoscale systems are starting to seperate from each other again...as Foothills noted earlier this morning, they were really close in proximity. I think that allows both features to sustain itself independently.

As far as the squall heading into East Tennessee...my gut feeling is that this will sustain itself and we could end up in a situation very similar to earlier in the week...places like Bryson City, Sylva, Waynesville and maybe into Asheville could get it really bad. Seems like storms coming in from the current trajectory affect the French Broad Basin and west.

That said, you cannot discount the area from Avery/Mitchell/Yancey and southeast towards the Catawba River Basin (McDowell/Burke). If what I'm thinking verifies, then the Northern and Western Upstate better be ready come late afternoon. If the northern area can hold together, then the US 74 Cooridor will be targeted eventually.

[Lookout]

As Buckeye fan just pointed out the new discussion is out. Its odd to have 2 MCC so close together and the 2nd one is a big rainmaker already in Ill, Mo and western KY, yet it's holding its on with severe despite going over worked over environment already. All I can tell you is to pay attention to the meso disc. from SPC as they're usually good, and try to stay up with the radar today. I don't know if one will decay at the expense of the other, or both will maintain, or they join as one. Any blend of the three is possible, also a lot of times the initial squall line fizzles but the outflow ahead of it or near it can instigate a new line quickly....seen that already several times as well. With it arriving at peak heating and intensity, its going to get ugly and maybe devastating for some counties if the full range of potential gets realized...meaning a swath of 70mph+ winds will be possible and very large hail, Pretty much whats happened a lot this season.

This one may be different because of how much 5H energy is lined up to come east right after this one, so I'm pretty sure as soon as this one is out of the picture, yet another one develops quickly. The ridge over southern MS and LA will help to steer this east and southeast as time wears on, despite the models keep going east (like RUC,...but that won't happen, esp this first set). There's good dynamics and very strong 5H support with divergence over eastern TN and GA especially this afternoon, so this could really develop if the 2 don't interact and interfere with each other's development. We'll see soon. As for what happens on the east side of the Apps, usually these have strengthened but this one is tougher, just wait and see how it looks later on. Could be another major downburst/straightline wind event esp. in SC again.

By the looks of the radar, the first one is going to miss ga and head toward western nc. The second one on the other hand has good potential. There is some differential heating across north ga currently due to widespread low level cloud cover over west ga. Meanwhile, it's been totally sunny here all day. Temp here is up to 87 while it's in the upper 70s/low 80s to the west. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this has on our mcc.

It's a little bit rare for north Ga to experience these types of systems that dive truly southeast since most of the time upper level winds steer these to the east and effect mainly nc on north. There are some concerns in my mind with regard to these storms dropping down over the mountains and downslope flow. Could mean a collapse of the system which could produce a huge area of strong winds, similar to a few weeks ago when that line collapsed to the west of me and took down my sweetgum. Not saying it will happen but there is a long history of storm systems dying as they dive southeast over north ga.

I'm just hoping we get some rain out of it. Maybe the upper level support will counteract the effects of going from high elevation to low elevation. I'm actually hoping we get some storms to fire ahead of the system as well. There are now tropical looking cumulus developing here so if things can get going ahead of the primary system, that would be great.

[Psalm 148:8]

This is from Birmingham.....Looks like east Al/West Ga(me) and northern GA are the target of the 2nd complex.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

A BIT OF A TOUGH FORECAST SHAPING UP...AS TYPICAL...THE MODELS DO

NOT SHOW OR DO NOT CORRECTLY SHOW THE MULTITUDE OF MCS WAVES THAT

ARE INBOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CERTAIN AT THIS POINT

THAT THE FIRST ONE WILL OR HOPEFULLY WILL COMPLETELY MISS US TO THE

EAST. HOWEVER...WHAT TO DO WITH THE SECOND ONE. CURRENTLY CROSSING

THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH OF MEMPHIS...THE BATTLE WILL BE ON AS THE

MOTION VECTORS WANT TO BRING IT ALMOST DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH

CENTRAL ALABAMA. YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THAT MOTION...NOT NECESSARILY

IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR...BUT MORE IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY...AS THE COLD POOL RACES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN

TENNESSEE. ONCE IT REACHES OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS

REMAIN ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN. WE ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS

OF NOW...AND WILL BECOME MORE SO BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES.

HOWEVER...I CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SUPPRESSION WITH

THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING ITS BEST TO BUILD EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN

MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. I WOULD HAVE TO THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR

DEVELOPMENT WOULD REMAIN IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND

SUBSTANTIALLY GET LESS AS YOU GO SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT

THAT SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM 50 PERCENT IN THE NORTHEAST TO ONLY 15

PERCENT SOUTHWEST. JUST HAVE THE FEELING THAT MUCH LIKE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI YESTERDAY...THE SUPPRESSION IS JUST TOO STRONG

TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT...EVEN THOUGH THE COLD POOL IS MORE THAN

OVERLY DOMINANT. COUNTIES NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST SHOULD BE

READY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND/OR

WARNINGS A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TYPICAL

SUMMER WEATHER.

17/KLAWS

[buckeyefan1]

They have expanded the slight area to cover all of SC, western half of NC and northern/central/eastern GA

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1121 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH

PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WRN U.S...DOWNSTREAM

THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW

EXTENDING EWD THRU THE SCENTRAL STATES. THE PRIMARY SURFACE

BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY

EXTEND FROM THE COLD POOL GENERATED BOUNDARIES NOW CROSSING TN

VALLEY WWD ALONG MO/AR BORDER TO A LOW OVER NCENTRAL OK. ALSO A

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MCV THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT CURRENTLY

MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL.

...TN VALLEY TO GA/SC..WRN NC...

DUEL COLD POOLS ARE DRIVING ESEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND WILL TAP INTO

A VERY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH THE 30-40 KT OF

SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING INTO SHORT LINES/BOW

THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL

SPREAD ACROSS TN VALLEY...NRN GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE THREAT OF A SEVERE SQUALL

LINE TO REACH SC/GA COASTS BY THIS EVENING.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I find it amazing how neighboring NWS offices approach the weather in different ways...Morristown hasn't issued a single warning with this squall coming through, yet GSP has just issued a huge multi-county warning well in advance.

[POWERSTROKE]

with those 55K tops in TN,

AT 1058 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE

STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF

MCKENZIE TO BRADFORD TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWBERN...OR ALONG A

LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF MCKENZIE TO 12 MILES

NORTHEAST OF TRENTON TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF DYERSBURG...AND

MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

Also, very strong wording coming from GSP:

UPSTREAM MCS OVER SRN KY IS EXHIBITING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND

DRAMATICALLY INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINE. HAND

ANALYSIS OF THE MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS +16 DEG C H8 DEWPOINTS

POOLED UP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND A GOOD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX BEHIND

IT. THEREFORE...THE LINE SHOULD BOTH SURGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

THE BEST MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE LINE PRETTY MUCH

RUNS RIGHT THROUGH THE FA ATTM AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NRN GA HAVE

DELAYED WARMING. THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE LINE IS ABOUT 35 KTS

AND THE NAM CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT A BRISK SE MOVEMENT.

MOST INTERESTINGLY THE WORKSTATION WRF-ARW HAS INITIALIZED ALMOST

PERFECTLY WITH THE LINE...AND IT BRINGS IT ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING

ABOUT 18 UTC OVER THE NC MTNS...WITH THE COLD POOL SPREADING RAPIDLY

ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS LOOKS

VERY REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT AIRMASS

CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND

EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA

FOR THE AFTN HOURS AS THE MCS SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. I/VE GREATLY

INCREASED POPS AND ADDED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WORDING TO ALL THE

ZONES AS A RESULT. SPC IS ALREADY CONSIDERING A WATCH BOX FOR PART

OF THE FA.

we have not received any rain at all this week. Do you think we will get any from system coming from Kentucky this afternoon or tonight?

[phil882]

Here comes the storms... widespread damaging winds possible!

[WhiteoutWX]

No MD/Watch out for areas east of apps? The line is already topping the crest of the mountains. GSP seemed to think it will hold together and even strengthen as it heads east.

[BIG FROSTY]

we have not received any rain at all this week. Do you think we will get any from system coming from Kentucky this afternoon or tonight?

Not a chance, Everybody gets rain but you!

[LithiaWx]

The atmosphere is extremely ripe for action in Norther GA/AL/MS. Cape values over 3000 and LI near -9 to -11 in areas. Lapse rates are not too impressive but the rest of the thermodynamics certainly are. Could get quite violent later on....

[LithiaWx]

oconeexman is probably getting hammered right now by a nasty cell.

[phil882]

Here is a very quick afternoon update on the storms that are moving though across the Southeast.

http://www.avlweatherblog.com/

[november rain]

Gaffney and Union just joined the STW list till 6 pm tonight