Psalm 148:8 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Besides the CAP in N GA after the morning hours, the other very interesting obstacle to any development came in the form of a fairly dense high level cirrus/stratus layer which really hindered any sort of convection. I flew around the north side of the meso mass in MS/AL this afternoon(DFW-ATL) and on descent into ATL it was really obvious that along with the CAP, the blow off from the storms in central AL really snuffed any chance at anything getting started in N GA today. Its cool to witness this stuff from an airborne perspective at times. Being able to see a large area from the cockpit really helps put things into perspective that are difficult or impossible to physically see from ground observation. Interesting post! yep....we missed out today.....sure was wanting one more shot at some heavy rain before the heat sets in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 the re-development just keeps on right over me, but only sporadic. Looks like a couple miles east of here is where its been a big time rain event, in Gaston to Meck. counties. Some parts of Gaston have over 2.5" so a few more hours is possible there and points east. Enjoy it while you can. Had 1.2" here in Upper Cleveland!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Had 1.2" here in Upper Cleveland!!!!! rub it in! Thats pretty much it for chances here I think until next Mon or Tues. If someone does get lucky with a rare pop-up storm over the weekend, it will be a drencher with the strong cap /high Pwats in place, and a nice local cool down , but those will be few and far between. I was hoping to really soak some water into this ground before the heat sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyredog28 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 4.5 inches here tonight of much needed rain. Could have passed on the near constant lightning at the onset. Once again got drenched out on a structure fire. Oh well, I guess the heat is on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 rub it in! Thats pretty much it for chances here I think until next Mon or Tues. If someone does get lucky with a rare pop-up storm over the weekend, it will be a drencher with the strong cap /high Pwats in place, and a nice local cool down , but those will be few and far between. I was hoping to really soak some water into this ground before the heat sets in. close to 2.5" at the wxbug station at grier middle on Garrison in E. Gastonia. Far less here though, around half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Had just under four inches here today in Northwest Alabama. Over the past 2 weeks or so we have had between 7-8 inches so we are doing okay on rainfall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 What an amazing night! Past 2 days have totalled between 3-4 inches of rain. More rain has fallen here in the past 2 days than the past 2 months. I am still shocked, because I have not seen it rain like this in a long time. Just Amazed! I am sorry forever did not get lucky this week, because the oven is about to be open up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Looks 4th of July is still gonna be a HOT day according to 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 A meager .12" fell last evening in some light showers. Now sitting at 1.17" for the month, and just 15.86" YTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I only received .02 of an inch of rain last night. Just a few miles north and east, some parts of Hickory received between 1-2 inches. That same storm formed right on my head; however, the rain was unable to reach the ground. This will go down as my driest month ever with only 1.4 inches of rain in the bucket. Oh well, maybe my luck will change in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 A meager .12" fell last evening in some light showers. Now sitting at 1.17" for the month, and just 15.86" YTD. I feel your pain, we got zip,nada,zero here it didnt even do enough to wet the ground. There are some washed out little showers floating around now but they wont amount to nothing. So we end up with lots of morning clouds left over from all the rain they got out west and no rain. MHX has us down for 40% today , of course they had us at 60% for yesterday, after that another hot dry week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I feel your pain, we got zip,nada,zero here it didnt even do enough to wet the ground. There are some washed out little showers floating around now but they wont amount to nothing. So we end up with lots of morning clouds left over from all the rain they got out west and no rain. MHX has us down for 40% today , of course they had us at 60% for yesterday, after that another hot dry week. the only piece of good news I see for the areas that have been missed so far, is the GFS is still showing a real pattern change. This will make only the 2nd time this convective season that the flow turns into a real Bermuda flow. But, we have to wait. I think it will happen, but its over a week away. It begins late next week, after our big heat ridge gets weakened, and the flow in Canada changes about. The westerlies will be very far north, so we won't be dealing with the west to east flow down here, instead a weakness aloft will reside between the two main ridges, so we have a slight trough in the nations midsection, with strong ridging in the Southwest, and off the Southeast coast. The big deal for us in the Southeast is the flow around this extremely strong Bermuda high showing up. Haven't seen one that strong in a few years, so anything that gets going in the Gulf, even if nothing organizes, the Southeast should get in to a really juicy flow off the Gulf, with traditional sw flow aloft and a ton of tropical moisture. Bottom line, daily showers will start early and cover a lot of ground in the Southeast once we get into that pattern. Whats been messing up you guys chances is the 50/50 trough and nw flow that kills energy with convergence aloft over eastern Carolinas, esp NC lately. That feature is probably going away, I"m not 100% confident yet, but almost. Once it does, I think we'll get into a very wet pattern. Above normal rains about everywhere in the Southeast, not including anything tropical either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 This will go down as my driest month ever with only 1.4 inches of rain in the bucket. Oh well, maybe my luck will change in July. 1.4 is the driest ever?? Surely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I managed to put enough raindrops in the bucket for a total of .07 Listening to the thunder rumble for hours made for a pleasant afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Looking at a dry and hot summer day today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 the only piece of good news I see for the areas that have been missed so far, is the GFS is still showing a real pattern change. This will make only the 2nd time this convective season that the flow turns into a real Bermuda flow. But, we have to wait. I think it will happen, but its over a week away. It begins late next week, after our big heat ridge gets weakened, and the flow in Canada changes about. The westerlies will be very far north, so we won't be dealing with the west to east flow down here, instead a weakness aloft will reside between the two main ridges, so we have a slight trough in the nations midsection, with strong ridging in the Southwest, and off the Southeast coast. The big deal for us in the Southeast is the flow around this extremely strong Bermuda high showing up. Haven't seen one that strong in a few years, so anything that gets going in the Gulf, even if nothing organizes, the Southeast should get in to a really juicy flow off the Gulf, with traditional sw flow aloft and a ton of tropical moisture. Bottom line, daily showers will start early and cover a lot of ground in the Southeast once we get into that pattern. Whats been messing up you guys chances is the 50/50 trough and nw flow that kills energy with convergence aloft over eastern Carolinas, esp NC lately. That feature is probably going away, I"m not 100% confident yet, but almost. Once it does, I think we'll get into a very wet pattern. Above normal rains about everywhere in the Southeast, not including anything tropical either. This sounds very encouraging for the long range Foothills will be patiently awaiting this scenario to materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 6z GFS keeps the scorcher alive. When is the last time ATL has hit 100+ for 4 straight days? Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 6z GFS keeps the scorcher alive. When is the last time ATL has hit 100+ for 4 straight days? Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Goodness. That is gonna suck if it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 RECORDS FOR 07-01 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937 1936 KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938 1937 KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958 1998 1950 1990 KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923 1897 RECORDS FOR 07-02 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937 KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937 KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950 1970 KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008 1937 RECORDS FOR 07-03 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932 KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881 KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950 1996 KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010 1919 1918 RECORDS FOR 07-04 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 102 1925 71 1940 75 1980 57 1996 1931 KATL 99 1948 72 1940 75 1993 59 1967 1922 1980 1933 1931 KCSG 99 2006 80 1994 76 2000 64 1986 1998 1997 KMCN 101 1979 74 1940 79 1931 59 1967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 12Z GFS continues to being the heat. The intensity is the same for my area but the GFS is now extending the heat wave to a 7-10 day event. With no rain chances before the heat sets in the temps could be very high here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Somebody kill me please It was too much to ask for no 100's this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 6z GFS keeps the scorcher alive. When is the last time ATL has hit 100+ for 4 straight days? Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday whats interesting is it keeps the triple digits out of KCAE, which IMO is kinda odd in a southern heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 whats interesting is it keeps the triple digits out of KCAE, which IMO is kinda odd in a southern heat wave. its been focusing the core of the highest heights and highest 850's over the mtns , piedmont and interior southeast, just immediately west of the coastal plain. I just got in and haven't seen the 12z runs but I see its still looking hot. One thing I'm wondering about the forecast temps is the amount of low level moisture in the ground here and the central piedmont of NC and northern Ala, GA as well. Areas that have soggy grounds now won't go to 100 most likely. Atleast not the first day or 2 of the heat wave. I've seen this a few times, where the models try to do that, but the ground absorbs the heat initially, but thats highly dependent and localized. One county can do it if they're dry other wet areas will stay stuck in 90's and a steam bath at that. Either way, the trade off is high heat indices over 100 for a large chunk. Just came from SC and ran directly into a small, but powerful shower. The rain was so blinding I had to pull over in Grover NC. Ditches were full of running water all the way to my house and I see I got .25" in just a short period, judging by the quickness of the movement. Nice surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 whats interesting is it keeps the triple digits out of KCAE, which IMO is kinda odd in a southern heat wave. I thought so too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I thought so too Pretty sure CAE will still be near 100, its about the hottest place in the Southeast . Actually the hottest may be in central (or pretty much anywhere) in Alabama and western GA with this flow. Just saw the GFS and its a tad bit cooler overall, noticing the absence of the 594 ht and 582 thknss or +24 widespread temps like it has been having. With a slight more nw or northerly flow right along the east coast, which may bring a risk of showers or storms , or atleast debris clouds from the Lakes region, which may end up helping parts of NC just a little...who knows just yet. The flow would still pretty pretty hot and downslope however in GA and Alabama right off the southern Apps. This may be a fluke run though , but the model still does bring surface temps at or above 100 in many places, and HI over 100 , even 110 in spots. Areas that maximize all the main ingredients of this heatwave, like downsloping+core high heights+full sun+unsaturated topsoils will still be hot and top 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 One thing I'm wondering about the forecast temps is the amount of low level moisture in the ground here and the central piedmont of NC and northern Ala, GA as well. Areas that have soggy grounds now won't go to 100 most likely. Atleast not the first day or 2 of the heat wave. No soggy ground here. Finally got a good rain last night with 1.5". This morning there was not a wet spot to be seen. Even the normal low spots that collect water in my yard were firm. Completely soaked in. Grass already looks greener though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Pretty sure CAE will still be near 100, its about the hottest place in the Southeast . Actually the hottest may be in central (or pretty much anywhere) in Alabama and western GA with this flow. Just saw the GFS and its a tad bit cooler overall, noticing the absence of the 594 ht and 582 thknss or +24 widespread temps like it has been having. With a slight more nw or northerly flow right along the east coast, which may bring a risk of showers or storms , or atleast debris clouds from the Lakes region, which may end up helping parts of NC just a little...who knows just yet. The flow would still pretty pretty hot and downslope however in GA and Alabama right off the southern Apps. This may be a fluke run though , but the model still does bring surface temps at or above 100 in many places, and HI over 100 , even 110 in spots. Areas that maximize all the main ingredients of this heatwave, like downsloping+core high heights+full sun+unsaturated topsoils will still be hot and top 100. I've already had a handfull of 100's during these past 33 days of consecutive 90+ deg heat, what's a few more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I've already had a handfull of 100's during these past 33 days of consecutive 90+ deg heat, what's a few more I've only had 2 days at 96, the rest were around 90 and even upper 80s. Most of the time during the early June heat wave, this area stayed well below forecast highs. I'm pretty sure the low level ground moisture had something to do with it, when I glanced at other sites and seen how hot they were, it was pretty unusual to see my temps so much lower, but my own thermo. agreed, so it was about right. We'll see how this one shakes out. The ECMWF still isn't quite as hot as the GFS though, and ends this heat wave much faster, with nw flow kicking back in next week, and the big closed high shifting back out to Texas and the Southern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Is there a site like IPS Meteostar that does this for the NAM and Euro? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 HHIYou got storms to the left......storm to the rightYour the only dry spot in town.....Ctg all around me. Will it fill in? My guess is yes......For now.....enjoying the light show with Buffett blasting away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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