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June part 2


Isopycnic

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Besides the CAP in N GA after the morning hours, the other very interesting obstacle to any development came in the form of a fairly dense high level cirrus/stratus layer which really hindered any sort of convection. I flew around the north side of the meso mass in MS/AL this afternoon(DFW-ATL) and on descent into ATL it was really obvious that along with the CAP, the blow off from the storms in central AL really snuffed any chance at anything getting started in N GA today. Its cool to witness this stuff from an airborne perspective at times. Being able to see a large area from the cockpit really helps put things into perspective that are difficult or impossible to physically see from ground observation.

Interesting post! yep....we missed out today.....sure was wanting one more shot at some heavy rain before the heat sets in....

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the re-development just keeps on right over me, but only sporadic. Looks like a couple miles east of here is where its been a big time rain event, in Gaston to Meck. counties. Some parts of Gaston have over 2.5" so a few more hours is possible there and points east. Enjoy it while you can.

Had 1.2" here in Upper Cleveland!!!!!

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Had 1.2" here in Upper Cleveland!!!!!

rub it in! Thats pretty much it for chances here I think until next Mon or Tues. If someone does get lucky with a rare pop-up storm over the weekend, it will be a drencher with the strong cap /high Pwats in place, and a nice local cool down , but those will be few and far between. I was hoping to really soak some water into this ground before the heat sets in.

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rub it in! Thats pretty much it for chances here I think until next Mon or Tues. If someone does get lucky with a rare pop-up storm over the weekend, it will be a drencher with the strong cap /high Pwats in place, and a nice local cool down , but those will be few and far between. I was hoping to really soak some water into this ground before the heat sets in.

close to 2.5" at the wxbug station at grier middle on Garrison in E. Gastonia. Far less here though, around half an inch.

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What an amazing night! Past 2 days have totalled between 3-4 inches of rain. More rain has fallen here in the past 2 days than the past 2 months. I am still shocked, because I have not seen it rain like this in a long time. Just Amazed! I am sorry forever did not get lucky this week, because the oven is about to be open up :(

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I only received .02 of an inch of rain last night. Just a few miles north and east, some parts of Hickory received between 1-2 inches. That same storm formed right on my head; however, the rain was unable to reach the ground. This will go down as my driest month ever with only 1.4 inches of rain in the bucket. Oh well, maybe my luck will change in July.

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A meager .12" fell last evening in some light showers. Now sitting at 1.17" for the month, and just 15.86" YTD.

I feel your pain, we got zip,nada,zero here it didnt even do enough to wet the ground. There are some washed out little showers floating around now but they wont amount to nothing. So we end up with lots of morning clouds left over from all the rain they got out west and no rain. MHX has us down for 40% today :rolleyes:, of course they had us at 60% for yesterday, after that another hot dry week.

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I feel your pain, we got zip,nada,zero here it didnt even do enough to wet the ground. There are some washed out little showers floating around now but they wont amount to nothing. So we end up with lots of morning clouds left over from all the rain they got out west and no rain. MHX has us down for 40% today :rolleyes:, of course they had us at 60% for yesterday, after that another hot dry week.

the only piece of good news I see for the areas that have been missed so far, is the GFS is still showing a real pattern change. This will make only the 2nd time this convective season that the flow turns into a real Bermuda flow. But, we have to wait. I think it will happen, but its over a week away. It begins late next week, after our big heat ridge gets weakened, and the flow in Canada changes about. The westerlies will be very far north, so we won't be dealing with the west to east flow down here, instead a weakness aloft will reside between the two main ridges, so we have a slight trough in the nations midsection, with strong ridging in the Southwest, and off the Southeast coast.

The big deal for us in the Southeast is the flow around this extremely strong Bermuda high showing up. Haven't seen one that strong in a few years, so anything that gets going in the Gulf, even if nothing organizes, the Southeast should get in to a really juicy flow off the Gulf, with traditional sw flow aloft and a ton of tropical moisture. Bottom line, daily showers will start early and cover a lot of ground in the Southeast once we get into that pattern. Whats been messing up you guys chances is the 50/50 trough and nw flow that kills energy with convergence aloft over eastern Carolinas, esp NC lately. That feature is probably going away, I"m not 100% confident yet, but almost. Once it does, I think we'll get into a very wet pattern. Above normal rains about everywhere in the Southeast, not including anything tropical either.

post-38-0-10504000-1309350899.gif

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the only piece of good news I see for the areas that have been missed so far, is the GFS is still showing a real pattern change. This will make only the 2nd time this convective season that the flow turns into a real Bermuda flow. But, we have to wait. I think it will happen, but its over a week away. It begins late next week, after our big heat ridge gets weakened, and the flow in Canada changes about. The westerlies will be very far north, so we won't be dealing with the west to east flow down here, instead a weakness aloft will reside between the two main ridges, so we have a slight trough in the nations midsection, with strong ridging in the Southwest, and off the Southeast coast.

The big deal for us in the Southeast is the flow around this extremely strong Bermuda high showing up. Haven't seen one that strong in a few years, so anything that gets going in the Gulf, even if nothing organizes, the Southeast should get in to a really juicy flow off the Gulf, with traditional sw flow aloft and a ton of tropical moisture. Bottom line, daily showers will start early and cover a lot of ground in the Southeast once we get into that pattern. Whats been messing up you guys chances is the 50/50 trough and nw flow that kills energy with convergence aloft over eastern Carolinas, esp NC lately. That feature is probably going away, I"m not 100% confident yet, but almost. Once it does, I think we'll get into a very wet pattern. Above normal rains about everywhere in the Southeast, not including anything tropical either.

post-38-0-10504000-1309350899.gif

This sounds very encouraging for the long range Foothills :popcorn: will be patiently awaiting this scenario to materialize

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RECORDS FOR 07-01

          	MAX TEMPERATURE     	MIN TEMPERATURE
 STATION      HIGH        LOW     	HIGH        LOW
 -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
  KAHN 	103 1927 	72 2003 	76 1990 	58 1937
                                       1936
  KATL      99 1954 	73 2003 	78 1947 	59 1938
                                                   1937
  KCSG      99 2007 	78 1966 	78 1998 	59 1958
               1998                                1950
               1990
  KMCN 	103 1954 	74 1924 	78 1931 	59 1923
1897

RECORDS FOR 07-02

          	MAX TEMPERATURE     	MIN TEMPERATURE
 STATION      HIGH        LOW     	HIGH        LOW
 -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
  KAHN 	103 1925 	65 1943 	76 1931 	56 1937
  KATL      99 1954 	68 1943 	79 1996 	58 1937
  KCSG 	101 1990 	72 1981 	78 1996 	59 1950
               1970
  KMCN 	103 1954 	77 1943 	79 1931 	58 2008
                                                   1937

RECORDS FOR 07-03

          	MAX TEMPERATURE     	MIN TEMPERATURE
 STATION      HIGH        LOW     	HIGH        LOW
 -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
  KAHN 	102 1925 	70 1943 	77 1978 	58 1932
  KATL 	101 1925 	74 1943 	77 1931 	60 1881
  KCSG 	101 1970 	75 1988 	77 1997 	64 1950
                                       1996
  KMCN 	104 1970 	78 1944 	77 1931 	63 2010
                                                   1919
                                                   1918

RECORDS FOR 07-04

          	MAX TEMPERATURE     	MIN TEMPERATURE
 STATION      HIGH        LOW     	HIGH        LOW
 -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
  KAHN 	102 1925 	71 1940 	75 1980 	57 1996
                                       1931
  KATL      99 1948 	72 1940 	75 1993 	59 1967
                           1922        1980        1933
                                       1931
  KCSG      99 2006 	80 1994 	76 2000 	64 1986
                                       1998
                                       1997
  KMCN 	101 1979 	74 1940 	79 1931 	59 1967

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whats interesting is it keeps the triple digits out of KCAE, which IMO is kinda odd in a southern heat wave.

its been focusing the core of the highest heights and highest 850's over the mtns , piedmont and interior southeast, just immediately west of the coastal plain. I just got in and haven't seen the 12z runs but I see its still looking hot. One thing I'm wondering about the forecast temps is the amount of low level moisture in the ground here and the central piedmont of NC and northern Ala, GA as well. Areas that have soggy grounds now won't go to 100 most likely. Atleast not the first day or 2 of the heat wave. I've seen this a few times, where the models try to do that, but the ground absorbs the heat initially, but thats highly dependent and localized. One county can do it if they're dry other wet areas will stay stuck in 90's and a steam bath at that. Either way, the trade off is high heat indices over 100 for a large chunk.

Just came from SC and ran directly into a small, but powerful shower. The rain was so blinding I had to pull over in Grover NC. Ditches were full of running water all the way to my house and I see I got .25" in just a short period, judging by the quickness of the movement. Nice surprise!

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:lol: I thought so too :unsure:

Pretty sure CAE will still be near 100, its about the hottest place in the Southeast . Actually the hottest may be in central (or pretty much anywhere) in Alabama and western GA with this flow. Just saw the GFS and its a tad bit cooler overall, noticing the absence of the 594 ht and 582 thknss or +24 widespread temps like it has been having. With a slight more nw or northerly flow right along the east coast, which may bring a risk of showers or storms , or atleast debris clouds from the Lakes region, which may end up helping parts of NC just a little...who knows just yet. The flow would still pretty pretty hot and downslope however in GA and Alabama right off the southern Apps. This may be a fluke run though , but the model still does bring surface temps at or above 100 in many places, and HI over 100 , even 110 in spots. Areas that maximize all the main ingredients of this heatwave, like downsloping+core high heights+full sun+unsaturated topsoils will still be hot and top 100.

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One thing I'm wondering about the forecast temps is the amount of low level moisture in the ground here and the central piedmont of NC and northern Ala, GA as well. Areas that have soggy grounds now won't go to 100 most likely. Atleast not the first day or 2 of the heat wave.

No soggy ground here. Finally got a good rain last night with 1.5". This morning there was not a wet spot to be seen. Even the normal low spots that collect water in my yard were firm. Completely soaked in. Grass already looks greener though. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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Pretty sure CAE will still be near 100, its about the hottest place in the Southeast . Actually the hottest may be in central (or pretty much anywhere) in Alabama and western GA with this flow. Just saw the GFS and its a tad bit cooler overall, noticing the absence of the 594 ht and 582 thknss or +24 widespread temps like it has been having. With a slight more nw or northerly flow right along the east coast, which may bring a risk of showers or storms , or atleast debris clouds from the Lakes region, which may end up helping parts of NC just a little...who knows just yet. The flow would still pretty pretty hot and downslope however in GA and Alabama right off the southern Apps. This may be a fluke run though , but the model still does bring surface temps at or above 100 in many places, and HI over 100 , even 110 in spots. Areas that maximize all the main ingredients of this heatwave, like downsloping+core high heights+full sun+unsaturated topsoils will still be hot and top 100.

I've already had a handfull of 100's during these past 33 days of consecutive 90+ deg heat, what's a few more :arrowhead::lol:

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I've already had a handfull of 100's during these past 33 days of consecutive 90+ deg heat, what's a few more :arrowhead::lol:

I've only had 2 days at 96, the rest were around 90 and even upper 80s. Most of the time during the early June heat wave, this area stayed well below forecast highs. I'm pretty sure the low level ground moisture had something to do with it, when I glanced at other sites and seen how hot they were, it was pretty unusual to see my temps so much lower, but my own thermo. agreed, so it was about right. We'll see how this one shakes out. The ECMWF still isn't quite as hot as the GFS though, and ends this heat wave much faster, with nw flow kicking back in next week, and the big closed high shifting back out to Texas and the Southern Rockies.

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