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June part 2


Isopycnic

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Once that line of storms hit the crapvection in Northern Alabama it lost all it's punch. Meanwhile the outflow that came through here earlier this morning is sparking storms to my south. :axe:

Looks like we may get some steady rains after all. Looks like the rain is finally making headway into No. GA. :thumbsup:

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Mesoscale Discussion 1432< Previous MD mcd1432.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SC...CNTRL/SRN GA...SERN AL...CNTRL/ERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281753Z - 281930Z THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL GA AND ERN AL. SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO CONTINUED INSOLATION. AS SUCH...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WELL AS ALONG CONVERGENCE BANDS LEADING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE INLAND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...OWING TO LESS THAN 20 KT OF FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS PER AREA VWP DATA...THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY YIELD MERGING COLD POOLS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH / MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS RESULTING FROM WET MICROBURSTS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED IN AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL GA TO SERN AL AND SWRN GA AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...WHERE DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD BUOYANCY. ALSO...MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..COHEN.. 06/28/2011 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

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i hope we get more storms today. this pattern, while hot, has at least been giving us the afternoon storms again that have been missing for so many summers. i am not looking forward to the pending heat wave :( as if it isnt hot enough already

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Yeah, but you have a 70% chance tonight. You'll prob have to wait for the storms to drop down from the mountains. Don't worry, the atmosphere appears primed!

Perhaps - but things are slow to develop here in the mountains as well. Certainly not yet widespread showers/storms yet. Kinda wondering if they will materialize given the massive MCS that is still ongoing across the south. Seems to me the front will actually "jump" the mountains and focus convection further east across the Piedmont. This is what the 12Z NAM was hinting at...

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Perhaps - but things are slow to develop here in the mountains as well. Certainly not yet widespread showers/storms yet. Kinda wondering if they will materialize given the massive MCS that is still ongoing across the south. Seems to me the front will actually "jump" the mountains and focus convection further east across the Piedmont. This is what the 12Z NAM was hinting at...

I think I can see what might be the beginnings of a line just along the eastern northern mountains. Something to watch anyway.

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Perhaps - but things are slow to develop here in the mountains as well. Certainly not yet widespread showers/storms yet. Kinda wondering if they will materialize given the massive MCS that is still ongoing across the south. Seems to me the front will actually "jump" the mountains and focus convection further east across the Piedmont. This is what the 12Z NAM was hinting at...

thats what I'm wondering. This area is sandwiched between 2 areas of strong convection, but this means also our instability is growing by the second and has a lot of unworked air. A weak lee trough is in place and with outflows increasing, I'd think somewhere in the piedmont between Athens or even central GA and Greensboro a mass or several clusters of thunderstorms could still develop this evening.

post-38-0-08467800-1309285660.jpg

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I'm losing hope for convection IMBY and across far north GA. A few storms have popped in far NE GA but that's about it. Totally socked in with high clouds and my temp is only 79. Glad I got that peanut sized storm last night. It could still happen but the outflow from that MCS in Alabama that blew thru here earlier this morning might have put a damper on the atmosphere.

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Somebody needs to inform the Greer NWS office that their statement info is being released incorrectly, I've seen two of these already this afternoon...isohume, you lurking around?

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

228 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NCZ049-050-503-505-506-281900-

BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-

228 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN

BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES

THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 218 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMPOBELLO...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

COLUMBUS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH

THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND

UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER

LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK

HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY

AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF

POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID

USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY

ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

204 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NCZ059-062-281830-

MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-

204 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MACON AND WESTERN

JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMPOBELLO...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

COLUMBUS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1433< Previous MD mcd1433.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...CNTRL/SRN VA...ERN TN...MUCH OF NC...FAR NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281844Z - 282015Z THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS HAVE PROMPTED THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE SERN WV AND WRN VA BORDER...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN TN...WRN NC...AND FAR NWRN SC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...OWING TO SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THIS INSTABILITY...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL CUMULUS CONVERGENCE LINES SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES COULD EVOLVE FROM THESE CONVERGENCE LINES IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED INSOLATION BY 20Z...AS AFFIRMED IN RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. AN INLAND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISCUSSION AREA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 900 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...STRONG DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY COULD FAVOR INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH AND DMGG WIND THREAT BECOME EVIDENT IN RESPONSE TO MERGING COLD POOLS...THEN THE NEED FOR A SVR TSTM WATCH COULD INCREASE. ..COHEN.. 06/28/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE... GSP...MRX...

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just looked at the European and its much cooler for the Southeast this weekend, versus GFS. Both aloft and the surface. Both models have a Bermuda ridge forming around days 7 through 10, thats far out, but both have the ridging shoving back west, with a weakness in the Gulf states/Gulf, with the northern stream far removed. So thats a time frame to watch something in the Gulf get pulled north into the Southeast from the western Carribean.

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just looked at the European and its much cooler for the Southeast this weekend, versus GFS. Both aloft and the surface. Both models have a Bermuda ridge forming around days 7 through 10, thats far out, but both have the ridging shoving back west, with a weakness in the Gulf states/Gulf, with the northern stream far removed. So thats a time frame to watch something in the Gulf get pulled north into the Southeast from the western Carribean.

Sounds like another Euro vs. GFS battle. The GFS has definitely had the upper hand lately, but I would love to see cooler weather.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1433< Previous MD mcd1433.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...CNTRL/SRN VA...ERN TN...MUCH OF NC...FAR NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281844Z - 282015Z THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS HAVE PROMPTED THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE SERN WV AND WRN VA BORDER...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN TN...WRN NC...AND FAR NWRN SC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...OWING TO SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THIS INSTABILITY...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL CUMULUS CONVERGENCE LINES SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES COULD EVOLVE FROM THESE CONVERGENCE LINES IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED INSOLATION BY 20Z...AS AFFIRMED IN RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. AN INLAND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISCUSSION AREA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 900 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...STRONG DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY COULD FAVOR INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH AND DMGG WIND THREAT BECOME EVIDENT IN RESPONSE TO MERGING COLD POOLS...THEN THE NEED FOR A SVR TSTM WATCH COULD INCREASE. ..COHEN.. 06/28/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE... GSP...MRX...

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Rain looks like it it his hitting a brick wall along Interstate 59 in Alabama. Probably will not get anything more than a few showers, if that. I guess I'll just have to follow 95L for my excitement this evening haha

I think we're toast! That outflow boundary cooled the atmosphere....and nixed our instability I think....Just as it was slowing, I got one good little 5 minute shower accompanied by one rumble of thunder before it sunk to my south and intensified in bigger storms...Think you can stick a fork in today...North Ga is probably done!:lightning: Hope I'm wrong.

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I think we're toast! That outflow boundary cooled the atmosphere....and nixed our instability I think....Just as it was slowing, I got one good little 5 minute shower accompanied by one rumble of thunder before it sunk to my south and intensified in bigger storms...Think you can stick a fork in today...North Ga is probably done!:lightning: Hope I'm wrong.

Well, I'm certainly not complaining. We had more than enough rain this month, so some dry weather is welcomed. I'm just enjoying this cool weather today. Only 82 degrees, was supposed to be in the low 90s.

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I think we're toast! That outflow boundary cooled the atmosphere....and nixed our instability I think....Just as it was slowing, I got one good little 5 minute shower accompanied by one rumble of thunder before it sunk to my south and intensified in bigger storms...Think you can stick a fork in today...North Ga is probably done!:lightning: Hope I'm wrong.

unless something gets cranking later tonight I think you are correct. FFC's AFD just released has some hope for tonight when the front passes through. Let's hope!!!

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