UNCCmetgrad Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 My thoughts (and map) on next weekend's Heat Wave for the Southern states/Miss. Valley. The GFS has some parts of Ark and Mo, western KY /TN having heat indices over over 116 to 120, with dewpoints in the 80's in the middle of the day . Unreal. Widespread actual temps over 100 for Carolinas, Ga,Ala, Ms, TN, Ark, Ky http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ Been catching up on the model runs today and my daughters birthday party this Sunday looks ugly. We are doing a cookout in the backyard and its hot enough being over three grills cooking hamburgers and hotdogs without 100 degree heat. 12Z GFS brings 107-110 degree heat indices in the the extreme southern piedmont of North Carolina with 110+ over a large part of South Carolina. This is likely a little overdone as we should get dewpoints to mix out in the afternoons with good downsloping. Indeed the 18Z GFS shows this with dewpoints mixing into the lower 60's over the mountains foothills and western piedmont with heat indices between 101-105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Pretty impressive.... I'm starting to catch lightning flashes from those Triad storms some 62 nm (GRLevelx distance) away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Heading to the beach early Wednesday morning for a 3-day retreat...and coming back home Saturday to near 100 degree heat, how nice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Just wanted to let you guys know that I am placing an order tomorrow for my own CoCoRaHS rain gauge. So within a few days I will able to post accurate rainfall totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyredog28 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I can finally no longer be jealous of the ones who have gotten rain. I would guess we picked up at least .5" where I am. The only downside to the storm was fighting a building fire in near constant lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Southeast looks to have a HOT 4th of July . 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Sheets of rain fell tonight over my area. Over an 1 inch of rain easily, more rain fell tonight than past 3 weeks combined. Another storm on it's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Just got clobbered with a thunderstorm that woke me up with tons on lightning and thunder. .91" so far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juspeachy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Just got clobbered with a thunderstorm that woke me up with tons on lightning and thunder. .91" so far from it. My college student son just sent me a text msg telling me how bad it was in Dahl right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 My college student son just sent me a text msg telling me how bad it was in Dahl right now! Yep....that's where im at. Lightning has finally moved past. Can finally go back to bed .98" in the bucket and no internet service. Posting from my droid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Southeast looks to have a HOT 4th of July . 0z GFS I want to pretend that this is as reliable as the GFS is during the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 This lightning is part of a storm that moved through Towns County, Georgia a little after 3.30am today. I was watching it from 4 miles NNE of Franklin, NC. The storm was about 20-30 miles to my Southwest. Shortly after that the ubiquitous early morning fog moved in and ruined the show. (Of over a hundred attempts this morning, this was the only one that caught something) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 What's up guys? Just checking in, hope you all are having a great summer. Been wrapped up with school and the fam, and had little time for everything else ;-( I captured some video yesterday afternoon of a microburst here, in the backyard to be specific. Over 2" of RN in less than one hour! The wind lasted for about 10 minutes in the 30-40 mph range, and I got captured the height of it on my Ipad's crappy camera. This cluster was warned, and at about 30 seconds, we verified as it likely exceeded 58 mph. Around 40 seconds, it went a little farther. Wind is always one of those things that without an anemometer is hard to gauge, because we naturally think it is stronger than what is truly is. Outside of a tropical system, I have not seen this kind of wind that I can remember. Best guess is in the 60-70 mph range at around 40 seconds, likely closer to 70. Have a fair amount of damage in the backyard, several large limbs down, one off a sweet gum that was sheered about 40 ft up, and being 12" or so in diameter. It did a lot of damage on the way down taking out limbs and a couple smaller trees. Would be interested to see what you guys think about speed, wife thought around 65, and I estimated in the 60-70 range. (don't buy an Ipad for the camera cause it sucks!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 This lightning is part of a storm that moved through Towns County, Georgia a little after 3.30am today. I was watching it from 4 miles NNE of Franklin, NC. The storm was about 20-30 miles to my Southwest. Shortly after that the ubiquitous early morning fog moved in and ruined the show. (Of over a hundred attempts this morning, this was the only one that caught something) Nice pic. Saw many of those last night just SW of towns county here in Lumpkin County. Starting the day off with 1.01" of rain already in the bucket. Looking forward to getting more today before the faucet is turned off and the heat is turned up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Nice pic. Saw many of those last night just SW of towns county here in Lumpkin County. Starting the day off with 1.01" of rain already in the bucket. Looking forward to getting more today before the faucet is turned off and the heat is turned up. it woke me up too. checked the nws and radar and was suprised there wasn't a severe storm warning, I came close to calling in a report. Thought I heard hail but when I went outside could never see any. Guess it was just very hard rain coming down on the roof. Would have swore I got two inches, but when I checked the gauge this morning, only 7 tenths of an inch. nothing to sneeze at, but it just seemed like a lot more as it was coming down. checked the radar and it was a very small well dfined circle that only took up about 10% or so of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I want to pretend that this is as reliable as the GFS is during the winter months. For real!! I can do without 100 plus temps. Of course it will nail this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 The bow line of storms (MCS?) in TN/MS looks really bad. I wonder how long it holds together, that thing looks menacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 it woke me up too. checked the nws and radar and was suprised there wasn't a severe storm warning, I came close to calling in a report. Thought I heard hail but when I went outside could never see any. Guess it was just very hard rain coming down on the roof. Would have swore I got two inches, but when I checked the gauge this morning, only 7 tenths of an inch. nothing to sneeze at, but it just seemed like a lot more as it was coming down. checked the radar and it was a very small well dfined circle that only took up about 10% or so of the county. Yeah it was tiny but very potent. At one point FFC nexrad indicated a 50k top which is no slouch. I think it strengthened a bit as it moved to my end of the county. I did get some brief small hail. Rain was intense with .71" in a twenty minute period. For real!! I can do without 100 plus temps. Of course it will nail this event It's amazing how much more accurate the GFS becomes when the pattern is much less complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Nice pic. Saw many of those last night just SW of towns county here in Lumpkin County. Starting the day off with 1.01" of rain already in the bucket. Looking forward to getting more today before the faucet is turned off and the heat is turned up. Nothing here but a few clouds yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It's amazing how much more accurate the GFS becomes when the pattern is much less complicated. I don't know what happened, but since the big Christmas storm, the roles got reversed, and they have yet to switch back. Each and every big event for the nation (esp. Southeast) since then, the GFS has held its ground and Euro finally ends up caving in and following its lead. It will be interesting next Winter to see if things switch back. I know the GFS has cold temp biases esp at day 7+ but here in teh warm season its been doing good with heights and 850 temps pretty well past day 7, thanks to placing the troughs/ridges properly, meanwhile ECMWF can't even get the ridges in the correct part of the country. Remember the big 7 contour cutoff it had over the Ohio Valley/Tenn Valley for a while recently. And the GFS said "heat wave"? Talk about phase adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I'm sure hoping all of this holds together just one more time! They're really getting some rain in MS/AL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Our 60% chance this afternoon was just lowered to 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I don't know what happened, but since the big Christmas storm, the roles got reversed, and they have yet to switch back. Each and every big event for the nation (esp. Southeast) since then, the GFS has held its ground and Euro finally ends up caving in and following its lead. It will be interesting next Winter to see if things switch back. I know the GFS has cold temp biases esp at day 7+ but here in teh warm season its been doing good with heights and 850 temps pretty well past day 7, thanks to placing the troughs/ridges properly, meanwhile ECMWF can't even get the ridges in the correct part of the country. Remember the big 7 contour cutoff it had over the Ohio Valley/Tenn Valley for a while recently. And the GFS said "heat wave"? Talk about phase adjustment. Maybe they moved the GFS processing to a new server and called it HAL 9000 (Spacy Odyssey) and it developed an ego and a sense to take over. Here is a quote from HAL that might back this up: "HAL: I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you." http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0002900/quotes It is Odd though to see the GFS whip the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Nothing here but a few clouds yesterday. It's my turn. A month or so ago you were getting all the action while I watched from the other side of the range. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I don't know what happened, but since the big Christmas storm, the roles got reversed, and they have yet to switch back. Each and every big event for the nation (esp. Southeast) since then, the GFS has held its ground and Euro finally ends up caving in and following its lead. It will be interesting next Winter to see if things switch back. I know the GFS has cold temp biases esp at day 7+ but here in teh warm season its been doing good with heights and 850 temps pretty well past day 7, thanks to placing the troughs/ridges properly, meanwhile ECMWF can't even get the ridges in the correct part of the country. Remember the big 7 contour cutoff it had over the Ohio Valley/Tenn Valley for a while recently. And the GFS said "heat wave"? Talk about phase adjustment. Robert, The GFS has recently been modified (in spring 2011), which seems to have warmed it substantially at day 5 in the NH as per the graph below. Day 6 is even warmer but the graph isn't shown here. This graph suggests that the GFS is now the warmest of the main medium range models by a good margin (at +6.08 meters at day 5). It is also warmest at day 6 with its +6.95 meters. In the ten years I've been following these graphs (including summers), I've never seen the GFS nearly as warm as this. It still has the Euro as being warm (+3.87 at day 5 and +4.17 at day 6), but not as warm as the GFS. The CDN is neutral while the UKMET and NOGAPS are cold. It remains to be seen how this may translate to the upcoming winter bias in the U.S. for the medium range. Keep in mind that the graph is for the NH as a whole. Will the GFS become as warm or warmer than the Euro in the U.S. this winter? Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I wonder what changes they will make on the next update ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS INTO GA/CAROLINAS/VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... INCREASED AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD N ACROSS THE RCKYS AND PLNS...DOWNSTREAM FROM RATHER POTENT CLOSED LOW MOVING SE OFF THE ORE/NRN CA CST. BUILDING OF RIDGE ACROSS THE PLNS SHOULD ALLOW UPR GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE LWR GRT LKS. COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LATTER FEATURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SE ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY...THE APPALACHIANS...AND TN VLY...WHILE THE WRN PART BEGINS TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TNGT/EARLY WED. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS INTO GA/CAROLINAS/VA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS AND SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT FRONTAL/BOUNDARY UPLIFT SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE BY AFTN ON ERN FRINGE OF EML. 20-25 KT NWLY MID LVL FLOW AND QUASI-LINEAR NATURE TO EXISTING CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION/SEWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. COUPLED WITH HIGH PW /A0A 2 INCHES/...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Robert, The GFS has recently been modified (in spring 2011), which seems to have warmed it substantially at day 5 in the NH as per the graph below. Day 6 is even warmer but the graph isn't shown here. This graph suggests that the GFS is now the warmest of the main medium range models by a good margin (at +6.08 meters at day 5). It is also warmest at day 6 with its +6.95 meters. In the ten years I've been following these graphs (including summers), I've never seen the GFS nearly as warm as this. It still has the Euro as being warm (+3.87 at day 5 and +4.17 at day 6), but not as warm as the GFS. The CDN is neutral while the UKMET and NOGAPS are cold. It remains to be seen how this may translate to the upcoming winter bias in the U.S. for the medium range. Keep in mind that the graph is for the NH as a whole. Will the GFS become as warm or warmer than the Euro in the U.S. this winter? Stay tuned. thanks Larry, I didn't know that. All I know is that I've been following the synoptics of them both, and seeing time and time again the GFS is much more in the ballpark, since sometime just after the Christmas storm. It has got a lot of the small scale MCC in the Ohio Valley to here that no other model caught onto until 18 to 24 hours before, which is surprising. And just the overall 5h flow and temps have been much closer to reality. I think a lot of people including forecasters are still of the mindset of how bad the GFS was compared to its rival but quickly forecast some massive busts on ECMWF this late Winter through Spring and now. Its finally caught on to the heat wave coming up for us this weekend as well. Anyway, just after this heat wave, there is one opportunity for a few days when the GFS has a very strong Bermuda ridge and no strong consolidated ridging in Texas around days 8 through 11 when there is the possibility of something tropical in the Gulf. It doesn't show that exactly yet but the flow is conducive to form something in the Gulf and steer it inland. Atleast the flow is very good for a really tropical atmosphere over the Southeast during that time, probably the richest moisture field yet this season. The kind of airmass with deep blue tropical skies and puffy cotton ball clouds with very low bases, that grow into tall thunderstorms and drench a lot of ground. We haven't had too many flow patterns like that much, and actually what I'd prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 WXBrad just tweeted a few minutes ago the latest dewpoint map...the juice as really spiked up this morning. Given we had no debris clouds this morning, I think we're prime for some rock n' roll later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 here comes the heat ridge. It begins developing over the Ohio Valley late Friday and by late Saturday its a 594 ridge right over the mtns of Ky/TN/NC region, with 582 thiknss right over the piedmont and +24 at 850 with surface high pressure all reminiscent of the big August heat wave a couple years ago. The big difference is there's no major downslope but some areas could be with the high where it is, just not large regions of pure downslope which would really heat things up. Instead the surface flow is more light and variable but dewpoints mix out in the lee of the Apps. The lows Sunday morning are only around 75 for many of us, and actually shows around 80 for Spartanburg, SC. Sunday? Even worse, widespread 100 degrees, except eastern Carolinas, but the trade off there is the high dewpoints shown: Middle 70s. The heat indices reach 107 to 110 in many spots and even over 110 near Athens and part of southern Virginia, and various spots. This looks like a bad heatwave, complete with both high temps + high dewpoints (which for much of SC/NC lee region has been missing in previous heat waves). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Storms are starting to pop in the mountains and looks like most of NC, SC, and GA are getting unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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