LithiaWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 000 FXUS62 KFFC 212022 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 422 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN IS CHC FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WED AND THURS. STORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DODGE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...NO ONE SEEMS TO BE COMPLAINING OTHER THAN THOSE WISHING FOR SOME RAIN. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST REST OF THIS WEEK AND SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES WILL DIP INTO ALL OF NORTH GA. EXPECT STORMS IN AL TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING BUT STORMS FURTHER WEST TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE EAST INTO NW GA AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SCENARIO DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS INCLUDING 12Z GFS/15Z SREF MEAN/12Z ECMWF. 12Z AND 18Z NAM STILL ODD MEN OUT WITH NO INDICATION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE WEST...ALTHOUGH 18Z NAM DOES FIRE IT UP IN THE MORNING OVER NW GA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. IF ENOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN COME THROUGH IN THE MORNING...THIS WOULD DECREASE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HOPEFULLY JUST GIVING US SOME NEEDED RAIN. IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING...COULD BE IN FOR SOME REALLY ROUGH WEATHER AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE UNSEASONABLY STRONG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR STILL PROGGED AT 20-25KTS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AGAIN DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION. FOR NOW...NAM THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING THIS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. AS WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THURS...FLOW ALOFT OVER GA BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THAN SW AND A TAD WEAKER. MAY BE A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS AS RIBBON OF DRIER AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE WEST OVER NORTH GA. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTH GA. USED BIAS ADJUSTED MET GUIDANCE AND RECENT PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS AND BIAS ADJUSTED MAV/MET FOR MAX TEMPS. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED BY MED RANGE MODELS TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER PUSHING IT OUT BUT VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND 12Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN. SHOULD KEEP US IN FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS IN THE AFT/EVE WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM. GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD AS 12Z RUNS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 00Z RUNS. SNELSON Nice AFD!!! I like the wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I think Wednesday storm chances are pretty good, atleast 50 % or greater , in the green shade, or thats the area of concentration, like today's area was mostly lined up initially west of there and developed east and northeast nicely. The models have good moisture to work with, a few vorts moving in, divergence aloft and with good gulf inflow and heating, the stage is set. Don't think everyone will get wet, but coverage should be pretty high, compared to what we've seen lately. The NAM wants to do this tonight, with big rains moving into the Carolinas and eastern GA, but not sure why, and doubt that. (but the radar is increasing for those areas now). Overall the front to our west should begin slowing and draping west to east eventually, with plenty of moisture in place and slightly cooler temps, so it will be much easier to instigate development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I think Wednesday storm chances are pretty good, atleast 50 % or greater , in the green shade, or thats the area of concentration, like today's area was mostly lined up initially west of there and developed east and northeast nicely. The models have good moisture to work with, a few vorts moving in, divergence aloft and with good gulf inflow and heating, the stage is set. Don't think everyone will get wet, but coverage should be pretty high, compared to what we've seen lately. The NAM wants to do this tonight, with big rains moving into the Carolinas and eastern GA, but not sure why, and doubt that. (but the radar is increasing for those areas now). Overall the front to our west should begin slowing and draping west to east eventually, with plenty of moisture in place and slightly cooler temps, so it will be much easier to instigate development. Starting to hear the thunder from the storms to our SW Edit: Severe thunderstorm warning just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looks like Cleveland county got into a nice severe thunderstorm: Cleveland County, NC Severe Thunderstorm 65 dBZ Hail: 80% Max Hail Size: 1.25" Top: 24,000 ft. VIL: 42 kg/m² The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Cleveland County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... northwestern Cherokee County in upstate South Carolina... southeastern Rutherford County in western North Carolina... * until 730 PM EDT * at 625 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles south of Cliffside... or 9 miles northwest of Gaffney... moving northeast at 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Starting to hear the thunder from the storms to our SW Edit: Severe thunderstorm warning just issued y;eah I watched the outflow race from Polk and Rutherford south to about 85 in Spartanburg, then it hit another outflow and popped a storm over upper Spartanburg to here. That used to be pretty common, its small but I can hear it. Getting close bolts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Maybe some rain for NEGA Mesoscale Discussion 1345< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN AL...SERN TN...NRN GA...SWRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 212203Z - 212300Z UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS HAS OCCURRED THROUGH PORTIONS OF NERN AL...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND REPORTS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM LINCOLN COUNTY TN TO CHEROKEE COUNTY AL OF 2155Z. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS NEBULOUS...A BELT OF 30-35 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WERE NOTED BEHIND THIS LINE IN THE HUNTSVILLE/BIRMINGHAM VWP DATA. WITH DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AROUND 25-30 DEG F...INDICATIVE OF A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE...A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND NE OF THE CURRENT SQUALL LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GRAMS.. 06/21/2011 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Awesome shot of the storm back west. Took a picture of it just as the clouds began to cover the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 After my last post I went after another cell that popped and held longer but unfortunately I was blocked by the restricted area of Ft. Bragg and I was already starting behind it. Anyway Robert as always your reasoning is sound and makes sense. Now that I will be working full time as a met after this week I will be re-launching my website and making forecasts again (being I will be able to spend more time looking at models etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 this tiny cell is really throwing the rain down. Huge drops and partly sunny, almost a tenth of an inch already. I don't know how long it will last, but the sw section continues to develop and train close to me,so someone close could get pretty lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The storm that blew in earlier this afternoon was perfect. Not alot of wind, but alot of rain. Looks like about 3/4". It rained for 45 minutes. Afterward, when the sun came out, clouds formed along the escarpment from all the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Indeed. The smoke is really bad here in Cary. Can barely see a quarter mile, and it seems to be getting worse. Is this smoke from the fire on the coast or the fire in pender county or both? Yes BOTH, it's Located in holly Ridge/Shelter Game area, over 3300 acres burning, I noticed it yesterday from the pier in Carolina beach. http://www.wect.com/category/195960/video-landing-page?clipId=5977287&autostart=true&redirected=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Keeping my eye on the activity currently crossing through Abbeville and Greenwood, SC. If that's able to hold on, I believe that will bring more rain and storms for Upstate SC and parts of Southern NC for tonight. Large area of severe thunderstorms clustered in there and progressing northeastward, nearing the I-26 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Keeping my eye on the activity currently crossing through Abbeville and Greenwood, SC. If that's able to hold on, I believe that will bring more rain and storms for Upstate SC and parts of Southern NC for tonight. Large area of severe thunderstorms clustered in there and progressing northeastward, nearing the I-26 corridor. You'll probably get the one thats getting me now. It just developed over Blacksburg, one minute the sun was out after the first one, and now this one developed right over head. It began with a bolt from the blue, which scared the ** out of me. Pouring again. Small, but nice rainmakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Listening to the storm over Four Oaks riding up I-95. I bet the lightning would look awesome after dark with all this dense smoke. Cannot make out any kind of cloud structure today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 You'll probably get the one thats getting me now. It just developed over Blacksburg, one minute the sun was out after the first one, and now this one developed right over head. It began with a bolt from the blue, which scared the ** out of me. Pouring again. Small, but nice rainmakers. Just got put under a severe thunderstorm warning here. The clouds out here looked as though they would depart northeast but I've been noticing redevelopment to my southwest, which is now looking more threatening out here with darkening skies and distant thunder. I'm also getting into a nice breeze out here so something may end up affecting me if this continues. Had a tremendous triple bolt lightning strike nearby as well, which was totally unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Listening to the storm over Four Oaks riding up I-95. I bet the lightning would look awesome after dark with all this dense smoke. Cannot make out any kind of cloud structure today. Solak representin' Central NC! Hopefully, those storms just to the south can propagate some good outflows up this way enough to spark come convection for us. Looks like storms are gradually forming a bit farther north. I can't wait for the sun to go down....for the reason you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Just got put under a severe thunderstorm warning here. The clouds out here looked as though they would depart northeast but I've been noticing redevelopment to my southwest, which is now looking more threatening out here with darkening skies and distant thunder. I'm also getting into a nice breeze out here so something may end up affecting me if this continues. Had a tremendous triple bolt lightning strike nearby as well, which was totally unexpected. the lightning, as usual, is pretty impressive . Its been non stop thunder (well every few seconds) for about an hour and a half. Just when i think its ending, a new cell clips me. Pouring again, this time with a lot of wind, didn't have any earlier. This makes 3 distinct cells to get me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 822 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... GREENVILLE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... PICKENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 915 PM EDT * AT 818 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH NEAR FOUNTAIN INN AND THE GRAY COURT AREA. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A LONG HISTORY OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOUNTAIN INN TO 3 MILES EAST OF ENOREE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEMSON TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAURENS TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAURENS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NORRIS...SIMPSONVILLE...DONALDSON CENTER...LIBERTY...SIX MILE... WOODRUFF...POWDERSVILLE...WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85...MAULDIN... EASLEY...WELCOME...FIVE FORKS...SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...PICKENS...HAYWOOD MALL...MOORE...PAULINE...NINE TIMES...PELHAM ROAD AT I-85...BEREA...CHERRYDALE POINT... REIDVILLE...ROEBUCK...GSP AIRPORT...FURMAN UNIVERSITY... DACUSVILLE...TAYLORS...PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...PACOLET... GREER...LAKE ROBINSON...TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...LAKE BOWEN...NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...WELLFORD...TRAVELERS REST...TIGERVILLE... SPARTANBURG...ROCKY BOTTOM...PUMPKINTOWN...PACOLET MILLS...MAYO... MARIETTA...LYMAN...LANDRUM...INMAN...GOWENSVILLE...FINGERVILLE... COWPENS...CLEVELAND...CHESNEE...CAMPOBELLO...CAESARS HEAD...BOILING SPRINGS SC AND DUNCAN PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STRONG WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FOR SEVERAL MILES AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONSET OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER NOW ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR OFFICE BUILDING. AVOID ROOMS THAT MAY BE DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 the lightning, as usual, is pretty impressive . Its been non stop thunder (well every few seconds) for about an hour and a half. Just when i think its ending, a new cell clips me. Pouring again, this time with a lot of wind, didn't have any earlier. This makes 3 distinct cells to get me. I only received a little from the first cell and that's it, not even a tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I only received a little from the first cell and that's it, not even a tenth of an inch. yeah , I watched the radar closely, I'm not that lucky with the rain so far, it never lasts long, but the in cloud lightning show is increasing now, and I just felt a really warm wind blow in from the southwest. Strange. Funny things happen with these small cells are just forming. I'm curious to see what the next wave does approaching from the south. You can see a strong outflow preceding it, we may feel that eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 eyewall should have a good report soon. It looks like the fayetteville, NC area has really gotten clobbered over the last several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 yeah , I watched the radar closely, I'm not that lucky with the rain so far, it never lasts long, but the in cloud lightning show is increasing now, and I just felt a really warm wind blow in from the southwest. Strange. Funny things happen with these small cells are just forming. I'm curious to see what the next wave does approaching from the south. You can see a strong outflow preceding it, we may feel that eventually. Hopefully we can catch some rain from that, although I really don't want much wind. Still have some limbs down from the storms on Saturday. Never had this much damage to trees and outside chairs, tables, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 *sigh*............just to my north..lol BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 856 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA NEWBERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA EASTERN SALUDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 945 PM EDT * AT 852 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITMIRE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PROSPERITY TO RIDGE SPRING...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWBERRY TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF NEWBERRY TO 12 MILES WEST OF BATESBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE WHITMIRE...SOUTH CONGAREE...SALUDA...RIDGE SPRING...RED BANK...PROSPERITY...OAK GROVE...NEWBERRY...LEXINGTON...LEESVILLE...IRMO AND BATESBURG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Pretty sure I just watched a small supercell form and get gobbled up by the convective mess behind it. In the past 30-45 mins moving northeast, just east of Reidville, SC in Spartanburg County. I don't see how because the shear is about non existent, but I know a supercell when I see it. I guess there were some mesoscale influences and interactions that weren't being picked up. Well I can't wait to get these time lapse vids and pictures up. What an epic win out of nowhere. Looking back at the radar loop, there was some cyclonic rotation... very broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Downright impressive lightning with the storm that just passed me. Had a moderate shower for a few minutes before it suddenly tapered off. Nice thunder with little wind (think the highest was 35mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Looks like Cleveland County, NC is the winner with the storms today/tonight. Looks like a cell will cut through CLT soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 just got back online after being slammed with trojans/viruses. Watch out, apparently a lot of my FB friends got hit at the exact same time. Meanwhile, while my PC was doing its thing over the last hour, i went out to video the awesome lightning. I'll post it soon as i can. I may not be out of the woods on this virus mess enough , lol, so if i disappear, you'll know why. The in cloud lightning was up close and I have several good vids I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 just got back online after being slammed with trojans/viruses. Watch out, apparently a lot of my FB friends got hit at the exact same time. Meanwhile, while my PC was doing its thing over the last hour, i went out to video the awesome lightning. I'll post it soon as i can. I may not be out of the woods on this virus mess enough , lol, so if i disappear, you'll know why. The in cloud lightning was up close and I have several good vids I think. How did your computer behave and do you remember what sites you were on before you realized you had the infection? I've been getting a keylogger on mine, which has caused me more than enough trouble with an online account that I have but managed to erase it through Spybot (great program to use by the way). Anyway, the lightning here was about how you described it. Just amazing. Currently working on a video with clips of the best ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Just got back from the golf course took some pics of a shelf cloud and got a video of some nice lightning and will post later. Could barely see going down the road it was raining so hard. Round two coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 just got back online after being slammed with trojans/viruses. Watch out, apparently a lot of my FB friends got hit at the exact same time. Meanwhile, while my PC was doing its thing over the last hour, i went out to video the awesome lightning. I'll post it soon as i can. I may not be out of the woods on this virus mess enough , lol, so if i disappear, you'll know why. The in cloud lightning was up close and I have several good vids I think. oh great! been there done that twice...yeck....what antivirus are you using and how did you know you got hit...just curious...in case I have to call the computer repair guy....I'm not the geek squad and can't fix those things myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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