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June part 2


Isopycnic

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Lots of smoke in the air today - harsh on the eyes.

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I agree...the smell is even in the house, outside is horrible!

There are people doing yardwork in my neighborhood today, some people just don't get it..

<---- I got the "haze" weather icon in my obs, haha.

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Thunderstorm Outlook For this afternoon... still not sure we will see much action in the Piedmont of NC and SC due to the upper level ridge overhead, but there should be at least a few severe storms further west in Tennessee and the Mountains of NC. Looks like a rainy and hopefully cooler rest of the week after today.

http://www.avlweatherblog.com/

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Another thing I didn't mention on my post above... there is a heightened potential for microbursts today. Downdraft CAPE is somewhere between 1000-1500 J/KG so once these storms start to collapse, there may be a heightened wind damage potential. GSP highlighted this in their discussion earlier today.

WILL RAMP UP POPS IN THE MTNS AND NRNFOOTHILLS...AND TOUCH THEM UP SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE GIVEN THEHIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS. OF PARTICULAR INTERESTIS THE VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES...1300 TO 1500...IN THE SRN HALF OFTHE CWA THIS AFTN...WITH EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP LAPSES RUNNINGNEAR 30 K THROUGHOUT. THE SLIGHT SEVERE RISK AND HWO WORDING STILLAPPEARS WARRANTED.

2rxfh1v.gif

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Keep in touch! You will be missed!! Be sure to chime in when you see a snowmageddon headed for the southeast. Your expert opinion is always welcome and appreciated :hug:

Oh don't worry... I certainly won't forget about you guys, although my posting in general will likely be limited due to my new research/teaching schedule unsure.gif

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Lots of smoke in the air today - harsh on the eyes.

Indeed. The smoke is really bad here in Cary. Can barely see a quarter mile, and it seems to be getting worse. Is this smoke from the fire on the coast or the fire in pender county or both?

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Days start getting shorter tomorrow.... Summer starts in 2 minutes yea!!! Countdown to winter begins!

:snowman::scooter: Yippee! I can't wait. First day of summer but it has felt like mid summer all month. I love it when the days start getting shorter And the sun starts is gradual weakening :devilsmiley:

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Which one are you referring to? They all seem to be working with the exception of MHX, which is being upgraded.

I was looking at the radars from NWS's website. All gave me the "radar data temporary unavailable for this location" message. But it looks like some are coming back online. Must have been an issue with the website.

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Just looking at the radar and saw that there is rain in Ala. Tenn. S.C. and Fla. but nary a drop showing in Ga. That is exactly how my house has been all month, lol. I just heard from the power line people that they intend to come cut trees tomorrow and will be driving down into the spot where they can't go if it is wet. Woopeee...I'm sure to get rain now, and have a bucket truck stuck for a week! T

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Good storm coverage over the deep south today. Over the next few hours it looks like development is going to get nw GA and maybe west Central GA as well, certainly n. Al is on the brink of good storm coverage. Looks like we'll keep this pattern alive for a while with a front washing out this weekend...so if your area misses out, be patient eventually you'll probably get something. This is really climo flow for June, something we can't seem to get anymore. And as Phil pointed out, there's signs of MCC development pretty far south this time. REmember the large one that rolled over the Ohio Valley yesterday? We have a shot at seeing large ones like that, but rolling across eastern Ok, ARk, Tenn and adjacent sections to the Carolinas, starting this weekend. Its extremely rare to see them do that in our area, but I could see it happening with the flow the GFS is painting, with the ridge in the Southwest and a bermuda high offshore, just enough impulses ejecting due east across the mid South., combined with Gulf inflow, so it could get good soon if you like large masses of rain.

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Smoke from the Pender County fire has reached us here and vis has dropped to 4 miles and the smell of smoke is strong. Between this fire and the Pains Bay fire I bet we have had 10-15 days with lots of smoke this summer already. We really need a tropical system to hit at this point, the hit and mostly miss nature of the storms down here ( for the second year in a row mind you) has made things ripe for fires and the call for strong SW winds and temps in the upper 90's for the next few days means lots of heat and smoke the next few days.

No chances higher than 30% in the next 5 days and even then it will be hit and miss not a widespread event like we need. Hopefully we have something to track tropics wise in the next few weeks and it decides to pay us a visit.

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Good storm coverage over the deep south today. Over the next few hours it looks like development is going to get nw GA and maybe west Central GA as well, certainly n. Al is on the brink of good storm coverage. Looks like we'll keep this pattern alive for a while with a front washing out this weekend...so if your area misses out, be patient eventually you'll probably get something. This is really climo flow for June, something we can't seem to get anymore. And as Phil pointed out, there's signs of MCC development pretty far south this time. REmember the large one that rolled over the Ohio Valley yesterday? We have a shot at seeing large ones like that, but rolling across eastern Ok, ARk, Tenn and adjacent sections to the Carolinas, starting this weekend. Its extremely rare to see them do that in our area, but I could see it happening with the flow the GFS is painting, with the ridge in the Southwest and a bermuda high offshore, just enough impulses ejecting due east across the mid South., combined with Gulf inflow, so it could get good soon if you like large masses of rain.

It would be nice to make up for the last couple of days of screw jobs but right now that doesn't seem likely in this area.

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It would be nice to make up for the last couple of days of screw jobs but right now that doesn't seem likely in this area.

I think we're going to get into a slightly different pattern that will finally benefit atleast a little, your area and the coast, where its badly needed. But as always, when in drought, play the persistence, so I wouldn't say for sure what will happen. However, its better than knowing for *certain* it won't rain, like when your'e under a closed ridge and sinking air, which all of us finally won't be, atleast a few days. The flow should be a combo of a Bermuda southwest flow, which is climo (and missing many Summers now ), so that alone is much better for atleast 30% typical coverage of hit and miss. But when you add all the Pacific s/w that have absolutely been the hallmark of this Spring, and push those south just a little period of time, with the ridge located in the Southwest, that *should* be enough to generate a few MCC clusters that roll east into the Mid south region, from west to east. I'm sure they won't be hitting everyone in the Southeast and the odds are most won't make it to eastern NC, but the chances are atleast there. The GFS has been excellent with the convective clusters overall in the Plains and when they roll southeast, from quite a few days out, which I find is remarkable. Only the day of can you zoom into exact areas to be hit, which hasn't favored eastern NC lately, but a few have partially hit. Odds are higher obviously west of the Apps, esp the ARK to TENN regions of getting into big MCC clusters that cover a couple states at a time.

Both GFS and ECMWF have a few days of good southwest flow and several impulses that could grow into large rainmakers for part of the South.

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post-38-0-37768200-1308689025.gif

By the way, has anyone seen how big the ridge is on ECMWF on day 10? Its a pure heat Beast. Glad thats not centered on the Apps, or we'd fry for sure.

post-38-0-33404500-1308688972.gif

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By the way, has anyone seen how big the ridge is on ECMWF on day 10? Its a pure heat Beast. Glad thats not centered on the Apps, or we'd fry for sure.

post-38-0-33404500-1308688972.gif

It certain is showing signs of the ridge flexing its muscles out across the Plains. It just looks downright ugly for those folks over there. Strangely enough, looking at the 12z GFS around the 240 hr. and beyond, it has the eastern half of the US underneath a huge ridge similar to what the Euro is showing for the central states but seeing as though that is WAY out there, this idea can easily change. Certainly hope by this point, it doesn't come to pass but we have had our unfortunate moments so who knows. It's definitely worth watching as we begin to close this month.

12zgfs500mbHGHTNA252.gif

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I think we're going to get into a slightly different pattern that will finally benefit atleast a little, your area and the coast, where its badly needed. But as always, when in drought, play the persistence, so I wouldn't say for sure what will happen. However, its better than knowing for *certain* it won't rain, like when your'e under a closed ridge and sinking air, which all of us finally won't be, atleast a few days. The flow should be a combo of a Bermuda southwest flow, which is climo (and missing many Summers now ), so that alone is much better for atleast 30% typical coverage of hit and miss. But when you add all the Pacific s/w that have absolutely been the hallmark of this Spring, and push those south just a little period of time, with the ridge located in the Southwest, that *should* be enough to generate a few MCC clusters that roll east into the Mid south region, from west to east. I'm sure they won't be hitting everyone in the Southeast and the odds are most won't make it to eastern NC, but the chances are atleast there. The GFS has been excellent with the convective clusters overall in the Plains and when they roll southeast, from quite a few days out, which I find is remarkable. Only the day of can you zoom into exact areas to be hit, which hasn't favored eastern NC lately, but a few have partially hit. Odds are higher obviously west of the Apps, esp the ARK to TENN regions of getting into big MCC clusters that cover a couple states at a time.

Both GFS and ECMWF have a few days of good southwest flow and several impulses that could grow into large rainmakers for part of the South.

post-38-0-14909800-1308689020.gif

post-38-0-75883700-1308689022.gif

post-38-0-37768200-1308689025.gif

By the way, has anyone seen how big the ridge is on ECMWF on day 10? Its a pure heat Beast. Glad thats not centered on the Apps, or we'd fry for sure.

post-38-0-33404500-1308688972.gif

Just got home and saw the ridge of death the EURO shows for the plains. 500-1000mb thickness reach 588+ over northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota on Thursday. Not too often you see thicknesses that high.

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Just got home and saw the ridge of death the EURO shows for the plains. 500-1000mb thickness reach 588+ over northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota on Thursday. Not too often you see thicknesses that high.

Just curious do different regions of the country respond differently to the same atmosphere parameters? It seems like if you had 30 degree 850 temps, 595+ 500 mb heights, and 585+ 500-100 thickness over the southeast the temps would be higher than if it happened in say the plains. Is this true or am I grabbing straws here? I see these crazy 850 temps and 500-100 thickness numbers over the desert and plains and am wondering what would those figures translate to around the SE? (since I've never seen them get above 25 degrees at 850 mb level of the atmosphere personally). The thought of 30+ is scary.

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