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June part 2


Isopycnic

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Still dry here in central NC. GA and SC get theirs, waiting for ours.

I like your chances today :sun: If it can rain here in the middle of ****....there is hope :wub:

SPC....

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS...

DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH

VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD WITH A CORRESPONDING

BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OH

VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE

MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG

SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS FROM PARTS OF

OH/WV EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT

MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE

WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS

CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

FARTHER S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TODAY

IN WAKE OF DAMAGING MCS WHICH HAS MOVED OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.

HERE...DECREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ALLOW

ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING

1500-2500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND

APPROACH OF FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE W WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR

SCATTERED TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS

EVENING.

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I like your chances today :sun: If it can rain here in the middle of ****....there is hope :wub:

SPC....

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS...

DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH

VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD WITH A CORRESPONDING

BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OH

VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE

MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG

SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS FROM PARTS OF

OH/WV EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT

MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE

WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS

CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

FARTHER S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TODAY

IN WAKE OF DAMAGING MCS WHICH HAS MOVED OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.

HERE...DECREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ALLOW

ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING

1500-2500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND

APPROACH OF FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE W WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR

SCATTERED TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS

EVENING.

Indeed. looking great for convection in central NC today. We sure need it.

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I am considering leaving the south on the account of how hot it gets. If I do it won't be for a little while though.

You don't have to leave NC to escape the heat.....just move to the mountains. I have considered that every summer. for 20 years. Only problem is that there aren't as many jobs up there as down here. Unless you are in real estate or Christmas tree farming.

Missed the storms yesterday.........but everything is still green from the Saturday's storms.

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You don't have to leave NC to escape the heat.....just move to the mountains. I have considered that every summer. for 20 years. Only problem is that there aren't as many jobs up there as down here. Unless you are in real estate or Christmas tree farming.

Missed the storms yesterday.........but everything is still green from the Saturday's storms.

Well the good news is my met company is finally taking me full time :) I work from home online for them. I can essentially move where I like (but will stay in NC for now due to a nice cost of living etc.). I am thinking about Asheville or Boone as possibilities. You would be correct in saying the mountains provide a nice escape.

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My vote would be Boone. :)

total of .44" last night.

Well the good news is my met company is finally taking me full time :) I work from home online for them. I can essentially move where I like (but will stay in NC for now due to a nice cost of living etc.). I am thinking about Asheville or Boone as possibilities. You would be correct in saying the mountains provide a nice escape.

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RAH says bust on storms today. FAIL!

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

AS OF 18Z BEGINNING TO HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF ROANOKE BUT NOTHING

MORE. SPC ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR

WORKING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ALSO ANALYZED IS A LARGE

BLOCK OF CIN OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE

SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. A REAL LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE OMEGA FIELD ON

NAM CROSS SECTIONS MAKES IT HARD TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE EXTREME EAST ALONG A

PRE-EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS SPAWNED A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS

FROM HALIFAX COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA. AT THIS POINT IT DOES

APPEAR ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS

ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL BE SLASHING POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE BOARD AS

A RESULT.

:gun_bandana:

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RAH says bust on storms today. FAIL!

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

AS OF 18Z BEGINNING TO HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF ROANOKE BUT NOTHING

MORE. SPC ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR

WORKING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ALSO ANALYZED IS A LARGE

BLOCK OF CIN OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE

SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. A REAL LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE OMEGA FIELD ON

NAM CROSS SECTIONS MAKES IT HARD TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE EXTREME EAST ALONG A

PRE-EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS SPAWNED A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS

FROM HALIFAX COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA. AT THIS POINT IT DOES

APPEAR ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS

ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL BE SLASHING POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE BOARD AS

A RESULT.

:gun_bandana:

Not too surprised here. The air is noticabely drier and hardly a cumulus cloud in the sky at the moment. May be awhile before another real chance of rain across the Carolinas with the heat pushing in this weekend into next week.

Wish the tropics would hurry up and ramp up.

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Well the good news is my met company is finally taking me full time :) I work from home online for them. I can essentially move where I like (but will stay in NC for now due to a nice cost of living etc.). I am thinking about Asheville or Boone as possibilities. You would be correct in saying the mountains provide a nice escape.

Asheville is similar to Kingsport - just over the mountain by an hour or so. It's a nice area. Boone - now that would be ideal. Those blizzard YouTube videos from last winter were incredible. I go to Roan Mtn. during the winter just to see how bad it can get in the mountains. It's impressive and a close to Boone as well - but it's in TN. I go to the lower elevations in the state park and they still get a good deal of winter weather.

Seems like the board is more active this summer. I don't remember having 1,000 posts on a summer month thread last year. Pretty impressive.

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Seems like the board is more active this summer. I don't remember having 1,000 posts on a summer month thread last year. Pretty impressive.

Yeah its great to see the board this active. I can't wait til winter when we go through like 5 50 page threads per storm haha

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Seems like the board is more active this summer. I don't remember having 1,000 posts on a summer month thread last year. Pretty impressive.

Unlike last year, some of us ( well - some of y'all) actually have some weather to talk about. :D

I'd be posting a lot more if anything was going on around these parts of East-central NC, but for now, all I can do is sit back and read, and wish, and think - 'Some day, I'll be able to say it stormed here like that'.

That being said, the dewpoint has been dropping off this afternoon - down to 61% now from 66% earlier today, and as was mentioned above, it is noticeable when working outside in the yard. Only saving grace today for us is the on and off cloud cover.

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Only one lone storm can be found in the western half of NC...

Polk County, NC

Severe Thunderstorm

63 dBZ

Hail: 100% Chance

Max Hail Size: 1.25"

Echo Top: 29,000 ft.

VIL: 44 kg/m²

This is heading southeast into the Boiling Springs area in SC, eventually crossing I-85 into Cowpens if it continues to hold.

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And it will likely stay dry :(

I had a feeling this would happen... all the energy is way southwest or north.

You guys are funny :lol: There will be a few more good chances between tomorrow and Tuesday where an MCS or MCC will develop and drop south east, topping the developing ridge, once again, similar to whats happened a lot lately in western NC lately. One or more of these will easily drop into central and eastern NC, so don't give up hope yet. It could be a doozy, similar to last night but further east and north. The pattern still supports those chances for a few more days, and I actually think once the ridge tightens and builds to our immediate west around Sun or Mon, then another major MCC will roll southeast from KY and get you guys.

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I had a feeling this would happen... all the energy is way southwest or north.

:(:angry::(

I wonder why CAE still has this posted....

:axe::lol::axe:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

501 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-171000-

LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-

MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-

RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-

BAMBERG-

501 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND

CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS

AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

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What happened at Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport Wednesday evening no more than a half mile away from NOAA GSP's office:

KGSP ASOS (which is at the GSP airport) gusted to 59 mph... although based off the widespread tree damage, I get the feeling winds may have been even higher than that. Maybe Scott can chime in with his thoughts.

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Well south of me. How did you make out?

.75. Pretty decent little storm. We just had a roll of bad luck down this way over the past several weeks with storms firing all around. Anyway all is well now. Off to Holden Beach for the annual vacation starting tomorrow. Love that beach. It can 90+ inland and because the island faces due south, the soouth/southwest wind always makes it just right.:thumbsup:

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those winds near GSP look exactly like what happened around southern Rutherford /Cleveland county on the May 10/11 derecho. I've got pics of a pine forest but haven't uploaded yet. Some are snapped and some are uprooted, and thats the ones that produced 70 to 80 mph winds here ,and 90 mph in Rock Hill, SC. It was probably microburst or straightline winds.

post-38-0-50383900-1308312268.jpg

post-38-0-96843300-1308312309.jpg

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There's pockets of +24 showing up for Mon and Tue in the Southeast, haven't seen that yet this season. The ECMWF was a little early trying to do that this weekend but the GFS kept holding off until next week. Also, one big MCC event probably just before or as that hot is arriving, either late Sunday or Monday. The major heat won't last too long, as a pretty deep trough develops later next week in the Plains and also Gulf moisture should be gathering and may get pulled northeast toward the Southeast or Gulf Coast...maybe something tropical in that.

post-38-0-54139200-1308314260.gif

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