Isopycnic Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Still dry here in central NC. GA and SC get theirs, waiting for ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Still dry here in central NC. GA and SC get theirs, waiting for ours. I like your chances today If it can rain here in the middle of ****....there is hope SPC.... ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD WITH A CORRESPONDING BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS FROM PARTS OF OH/WV EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TODAY IN WAKE OF DAMAGING MCS WHICH HAS MOVED OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. HERE...DECREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ALLOW ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACH OF FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE W WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 I like your chances today If it can rain here in the middle of ****....there is hope SPC.... ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD WITH A CORRESPONDING BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS FROM PARTS OF OH/WV EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TODAY IN WAKE OF DAMAGING MCS WHICH HAS MOVED OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. HERE...DECREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ALLOW ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACH OF FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE W WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. Indeed. looking great for convection in central NC today. We sure need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Ended with just over 2" last night. It was still rumbling when I went to bed around midnight. Definitely a night to remember. WOW as I was typing I heard a tree fall! Sounded really close to the house so I'm gonna go out and investigate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Has not rained in a month IMBY, here's hoping today is the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Picked up .38 from yesterday's system...I hope for once we can squeeze 2 good days in a row, we got American Legion Baseball tonight and tomorrow at 6 pm...no rain-out please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Bad bust last night IMO,had 90% of rain and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I am considering leaving the south on the account of how hot it gets. If I do it won't be for a little while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I am considering leaving the south on the account of how hot it gets. If I do it won't be for a little while though. You don't have to leave NC to escape the heat.....just move to the mountains. I have considered that every summer. for 20 years. Only problem is that there aren't as many jobs up there as down here. Unless you are in real estate or Christmas tree farming. Missed the storms yesterday.........but everything is still green from the Saturday's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 You don't have to leave NC to escape the heat.....just move to the mountains. I have considered that every summer. for 20 years. Only problem is that there aren't as many jobs up there as down here. Unless you are in real estate or Christmas tree farming. Missed the storms yesterday.........but everything is still green from the Saturday's storms. Well the good news is my met company is finally taking me full time I work from home online for them. I can essentially move where I like (but will stay in NC for now due to a nice cost of living etc.). I am thinking about Asheville or Boone as possibilities. You would be correct in saying the mountains provide a nice escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Bad bust last night IMO,had 90% of rain and nothing. We had a time of some light rain but that was it. I had a feeling we would get screwed out of this setup here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 My vote would be Boone. total of .44" last night. Well the good news is my met company is finally taking me full time I work from home online for them. I can essentially move where I like (but will stay in NC for now due to a nice cost of living etc.). I am thinking about Asheville or Boone as possibilities. You would be correct in saying the mountains provide a nice escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 RAH says bust on storms today. FAIL! NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY... AS OF 18Z BEGINNING TO HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF ROANOKE BUT NOTHING MORE. SPC ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ALSO ANALYZED IS A LARGE BLOCK OF CIN OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. A REAL LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE OMEGA FIELD ON NAM CROSS SECTIONS MAKES IT HARD TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE EXTREME EAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS SPAWNED A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS FROM HALIFAX COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL BE SLASHING POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE BOARD AS A RESULT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 RAH says bust on storms today. FAIL! NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY... AS OF 18Z BEGINNING TO HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF ROANOKE BUT NOTHING MORE. SPC ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ALSO ANALYZED IS A LARGE BLOCK OF CIN OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. A REAL LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE OMEGA FIELD ON NAM CROSS SECTIONS MAKES IT HARD TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE EXTREME EAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS SPAWNED A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS FROM HALIFAX COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL BE SLASHING POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE BOARD AS A RESULT. Not too surprised here. The air is noticabely drier and hardly a cumulus cloud in the sky at the moment. May be awhile before another real chance of rain across the Carolinas with the heat pushing in this weekend into next week. Wish the tropics would hurry up and ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Well the good news is my met company is finally taking me full time I work from home online for them. I can essentially move where I like (but will stay in NC for now due to a nice cost of living etc.). I am thinking about Asheville or Boone as possibilities. You would be correct in saying the mountains provide a nice escape. Asheville is similar to Kingsport - just over the mountain by an hour or so. It's a nice area. Boone - now that would be ideal. Those blizzard YouTube videos from last winter were incredible. I go to Roan Mtn. during the winter just to see how bad it can get in the mountains. It's impressive and a close to Boone as well - but it's in TN. I go to the lower elevations in the state park and they still get a good deal of winter weather. Seems like the board is more active this summer. I don't remember having 1,000 posts on a summer month thread last year. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Seems like the board is more active this summer. I don't remember having 1,000 posts on a summer month thread last year. Pretty impressive. Yeah its great to see the board this active. I can't wait til winter when we go through like 5 50 page threads per storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Seems like the board is more active this summer. I don't remember having 1,000 posts on a summer month thread last year. Pretty impressive. Unlike last year, some of us ( well - some of y'all) actually have some weather to talk about. I'd be posting a lot more if anything was going on around these parts of East-central NC, but for now, all I can do is sit back and read, and wish, and think - 'Some day, I'll be able to say it stormed here like that'. That being said, the dewpoint has been dropping off this afternoon - down to 61% now from 66% earlier today, and as was mentioned above, it is noticeable when working outside in the yard. Only saving grace today for us is the on and off cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Still dry here in central NC. GA and SC get theirs, waiting for ours. And it will likely stay dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 And it will likely stay dry I had a feeling this would happen... all the energy is way southwest or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Only one lone storm can be found in the western half of NC... Polk County, NC Severe Thunderstorm 63 dBZ Hail: 100% Chance Max Hail Size: 1.25" Echo Top: 29,000 ft. VIL: 44 kg/m² This is heading southeast into the Boiling Springs area in SC, eventually crossing I-85 into Cowpens if it continues to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 And it will likely stay dry I had a feeling this would happen... all the energy is way southwest or north. You guys are funny There will be a few more good chances between tomorrow and Tuesday where an MCS or MCC will develop and drop south east, topping the developing ridge, once again, similar to whats happened a lot lately in western NC lately. One or more of these will easily drop into central and eastern NC, so don't give up hope yet. It could be a doozy, similar to last night but further east and north. The pattern still supports those chances for a few more days, and I actually think once the ridge tightens and builds to our immediate west around Sun or Mon, then another major MCC will roll southeast from KY and get you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Gotta love your optimism, Robert Hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I had a feeling this would happen... all the energy is way southwest or north. I wonder why CAE still has this posted.... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 501 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-171000- LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD- MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON- RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON- BAMBERG- 501 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Big Lightening and Thunder quickly approaching. I need this one bad. Haven't had an inch total in a month now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Big Lightening and Thunder quickly approaching. I need this one bad. Haven't had an inch total in a month now. Well south of me. How did you make out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 What happened at Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport Wednesday evening no more than a half mile away from NOAA GSP's office: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 What happened at Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport Wednesday evening no more than a half mile away from NOAA GSP's office: KGSP ASOS (which is at the GSP airport) gusted to 59 mph... although based off the widespread tree damage, I get the feeling winds may have been even higher than that. Maybe Scott can chime in with his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Well south of me. How did you make out? .75. Pretty decent little storm. We just had a roll of bad luck down this way over the past several weeks with storms firing all around. Anyway all is well now. Off to Holden Beach for the annual vacation starting tomorrow. Love that beach. It can 90+ inland and because the island faces due south, the soouth/southwest wind always makes it just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 those winds near GSP look exactly like what happened around southern Rutherford /Cleveland county on the May 10/11 derecho. I've got pics of a pine forest but haven't uploaded yet. Some are snapped and some are uprooted, and thats the ones that produced 70 to 80 mph winds here ,and 90 mph in Rock Hill, SC. It was probably microburst or straightline winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 There's pockets of +24 showing up for Mon and Tue in the Southeast, haven't seen that yet this season. The ECMWF was a little early trying to do that this weekend but the GFS kept holding off until next week. Also, one big MCC event probably just before or as that hot is arriving, either late Sunday or Monday. The major heat won't last too long, as a pretty deep trough develops later next week in the Plains and also Gulf moisture should be gathering and may get pulled northeast toward the Southeast or Gulf Coast...maybe something tropical in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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