ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 You mean GA/SC? CMC, GFS, & ECMWF all have it, so it's enough to perk interest in my eyes. I'll be interested if the Euro still has it at 96 hours...otherwise wake me up when that happens. 222 hours is a joke on models. Its certainly worth keeping an eye on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'll be interested if the Euro still has it at 96 hours...otherwise wake me up when that happens. 222 hours is a joke on models. Its certainly worth keeping an eye on though. I guess I'm just antsy after 2 years with diddly squat in homecountry. But are models progged to understand the physics of why hurricanes are created in our atmosphere, aka, the transport of heat, and when it would be a likely menifesto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Any tropical slut <snip> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yeah us "icepuss*es" get a bad name because of Josh and his very well deserved assault on those bad posters (i counter with some evidence against tropical sluts), but I will defend our kind even though Josh and I are good buddies. We have an uneasy truce between us...but I will come into Josh's corner here in tropical season because I owe him that this year. I said I would get back into the mix after I was kind of lame in 2009 and 2010. So I'll be in these threads tracking 'canes that are chasable. This year has a lot of potential in the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 93 is gonna be a teaser... LGEM still makes it a two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Im sure Kush will disagree with that haha. But Josh and Kush and a few of the others like Srain are the mature tropical posters, and you and LEK too of course. I actually miss these late night threads we do once in awhile-- it always seems to be much more educational and pleasant at night. Yeah, I know what you mean-- the latenight discussions are more mellow. Yeah us "icepuss*es" get a bad name because of Josh and his very well deserved assault on those bad posters (i counter with some evidence against tropical sluts), but I will defend our kind even though Josh and I are good buddies. We have an uneasy truce between us...but I will come into Josh's corner here in tropical season because I owe him that this year. I said I would get back into the mix after I was kind of lame in 2009 and 2010. So I'll be in these threads tracking 'canes that are chasable. This year has a lot of potential in the U.S. Nice to have you back, following the action. Good to have a token snow nerd-- makes us seem less prejudiced. P.S. "Uneasy truce"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 93 is gonna be a teaser... LGEM still makes it a two. Doesn't it look like it's going to crash into HN/NI? It's looking better tonight, but it's got to gain latitude fast. P.S. It's a tiny little thing, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Doesn't it look like it's going to crash into HN/NI? It's looking better tonight, but it's got to gain latitude fast. P.S. It's a tiny little thing, isn't it? Probably deceiving but looks like it's trying to gain some lat. May end up just riding the Honduran coast and staying a total mess. Definitely on the smallish side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Looking like it will clear the Honduran coast by a decent enough margin. Small enough that interaction could be limited anyways. LGEM is still gung ho so don't be surprised if the first forecast is a bit bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Florida seems less prone to surge close than barrier islands enough to the coast for near maximum wind action, and if this makes a day time landfall, I think Charley showed the terrain with built up civilization, coastal area roads and palm trees makes this the ideal place for YouTube action. I lived a year in Orlando, 32813, never experienced a TC there, but one of my favorite taggers works at MLB, so I'm really hoping for good things. I hope Josh and other chasers have the best chase ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z Euro tracks a storm south of Cuba and then brings it into the Gulf...pretty far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z Euro tracks a storm south of Cuba and then brings it into the Gulf...pretty far out though. Pretty similar to the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 00z Euro has an upper Florida Keys landfall at 180 hours. This system deserves monitoring as it has a high likelihood of landfall if it does indeed develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Charleston - Morehead City I'm pulling for Surfside Beach the South Carolina version and I would like some type of souvenir please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 West Palm Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 I dunno, guys-- the setup is looking like sh*t to me. If it hits Shredderola, it's going to suck. For it to miss Shredderola to the N, it needs to be moving at a trajectory that suggests a parallel brush with the E Coast-- not exactly a good setup for a chase. It'll be like some annoying Floyd situation (which, thank God, I didn't chase). That's unless it isn't pushed back W toward the coast. Blah. Just feeling negative right now. Like I was saying to Scott via eMail, it's been years now since we've had a really, really hawt setup in the NATL. Really, not since 2007. I'm just sick of waiting for all the variables to fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I dunno, guys-- the setup is looking like sh*t to me. If it hits Shredderola, it's going to suck. For it to miss Shredderola to the N, it needs to be moving at a trajectory that suggests a parallel brush with the E Coast-- not exactly a good setup for a chase. It'll be like some annoying Floyd situation (which, thank God, I didn't chase). That's unless it isn't pushes back W toward the coast. Blah. Just feeling negative right now. Like I was saying to Scott via eMail, it's been years now since we've had a really, really hawt setup in the NATL. Really, not since 2007. I'm just sick of waiting for all the variables to fall into place. Hear ya. Just trying to soften the blow. Like I was mentioning, enough of a shift to the E and who knows there might be something worthwhile into the Carolina's. Our Gulf setup is looking less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hear ya. Just trying to soften the blow. Like I was mentioning, enough of a shift to the E and who knows there might be something worthwhile into the Carolina's. Our Gulf setup is looking less and less likely. Thanks, I know you're just trying to help. I'm just cranky is all. I guess something good can happen if it really bends back toward the W after missing Shredderola, a la Hugo-- but that's unusual and I'm not exactly holding my breath for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 00z ec skirts the northern coast of cuba for awhile then turns her nnw making landfall near savannah. pretty close to the 12z run except a little less interaction with florida...more over open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thanks, I know you're just trying to help. I'm just cranky is all. I guess something good can happen if it really bends back toward the W after missing Shredderola, a la Hugo-- but that's unusual and I'm not exactly holding my breath for that. Yea that your only real shot of getting a major hurricane out of this thing.... cat 1 or cat 2 is not out of the question if it his Hispaniola and then hangs around in the Bahamas for a couple of days since the SSTs are still pretty nice up the FL coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 00z ec skirts the northern coast of cuba for awhile then turns her nnw making landfall near savannah. pretty close to the 12z run except a little less interaction with florida...more over open water. Hey, dude-- what's up? Yeah, that scenario could be OK, I guess. Yea that your only real shot of getting a major hurricane out of this thing.... cat 1 or cat 2 is not out of the question if it his Hispaniola and then hangs around in the Bahamas for a couple of days since the SSTs are still pretty nice up the FL coastline. Agreed. What are the prospects of a good bend toward the W-- assuming it even does miss Shredderola? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hey, dude-- what's up? Yeah, that scenario could be OK, I guess. Agreed. What are the prospects of a good bend toward the W-- assuming it even does miss Shredderola? Pretty likely it comes back W at least a little bit (like NNW instead of N)... the first trough was never going to be enough to recurve it out to sea, and both the GFS And ECWMF are suggesting the ridge re-intensifies after the first trough passes it by. It looks like its going to slow down to a crawl as well during the last couple of days before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hey, dude-- what's up? Yeah, that scenario could be OK, I guess. If you're too much of a snob for a nice cat 2 into GA ( ) then the 00z UKMET is your friend. Central gulf at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pretty likely it comes back W at least a little bit (like NNW instead of N)... the first trough was never going to be enough to recurve it out to sea, and both the GFS And ECWMF are suggesting the ridge re-intensifies after the first trough passes it by. It looks like its going to slow down to a crawl as well during the last couple of days before landfall. Hmmm. Well, maybe that'll give it some time to get its act together. If you're too much of a snob for a nice cat 2 into GA ( ) then the 00z UKMET is your friend. Central gulf at 144. Ha! The UKMET remains the last hope! Seriously, with all these N shifts of the center, the Gulf is looking like a fantasy at this point. P.S. A solid 85 kt into GA would be cool. I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I knew that 5 min yoga session would invigorate you and clear your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think it misses the worst of Hispaniola. Looking big picture Caribbean loop and seeing the Guadeloupe radar it clears the big peaks to the North and East, maybe even minimal land. The hard part would be a storm almost paralleling the Florida Peninsula, as suggested by more than a few models, and trying to be in the right place. You do have I-95 and Route 1. BTW, I'm not reporting literally dozens of posts to the mods, but the main thread is thick with worthless posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Any tropical slut with disagree with me on that, lol. But it doesn't matter too much...this thread is nice because its solely focused on chase potential, and not the hype that goes with any storm. We can focus on where landfall might occur which is my secret fetish...I have no interest in an annular storm that weakens 4 notches before it hits anyone. Like 90% of ATL U.S. hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 MIA, FLL, PBI, ORL, JAX, ATL, CLT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.