Ian Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Funny you keep calling it "chinatingles" since Okinawa is Japanese. lol, yeah I read thru because of that. I was wondering how he was planning on getting a quick visa to go to China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I think the PRC does claim Okinawa as part of their territory. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/may/15/china-okinawa-dispute-japan-ryukyu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Funny you keep calling it "chinatingles" since Okinawa is Japanese. The term is derived from "chinacane", which is the official term used in this forum to denote a tropical cyclone in the WPAC with winds of 64 kt. The national territory being affected is beside the point. (China is actually affected much less frequently than Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Funny you keep calling it "chinatingles" since Okinawa is Japanese. P.S. Given that I've already bought a plane ticket to OKA, I guess I'd kinda have to know which country it's part of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 gotta do what you gotta do. Yep. I'd rather cave in and eat my words than sit home all season. I have no pride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 P.S. Given that I've already bought a plane ticket to OKA, I guess I'd kinda have to know which country it's part of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 I forgot you know some Japanese. I should be callin' you for pointers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Way to go Josh, I hope it delivers big time! The timing is pretty good as it seems like the long trackers always undergo an ERC and don't usually recover, location is still an issue but it's a long flight so plenty of time to pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Way to go Josh, I hope it delivers big time! The timing is pretty good as it seems like the long trackers always undergo an ERC and don't usually recover, location is still an issue but it's a long flight so plenty of time to pray. Ha ha ha! Thanks for the encouragement. It's a long shot-- a lot can go wrong-- but I'd rather go for it than sit at home feeling bitter. OKA is a starting point-- a lot of those tiny Ryukyu islands have airports, so I'm hoping I'll have the time to hopscotch as needed. I've been coordinating with James (Typhoon Hunter), who's the undisputed dude on this turf and knows it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 How much $ for plane tix? The 12Z Euro looks to have shifted W a good bit and now brings the center just W of OKA. Kinda cool. James, check your eMail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 How much $ for plane tix? Read on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I forgot you know some Japanese. I should be callin' you for pointers. ええ、そうですね。 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 ええ、そうですね。 Heading to OKA in a couple of hours. Meeting James there. Both JTWC and JMA bring the center right over the island. Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Heading to OKA in a couple of hours. Meeting James there. Both JTWC and JMA bring the center right over the island. Hawt. Good luck! I know it'll be a fun one for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If it goes a bit too far south/west to put Naha in the core, Kume Island (Kumejima) could be a good option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Haven't seen such out of control model runs for a long time. It's like they all went out drinking last night, were given 15 shots of tequila, blindfolded and told to walk home dragging a paint brush - that about sums up consensus right now. W Pacific is notorious for west shifting of tracks due to strength of ridge being underestimated but if Fitow ends up hitting Taiwan like GFS and a few others are showing that would be one of the craziest west shifts I've seen since typhoon Fengshen, which was forecast to recurve east of the Philippines by about 500 miles, ended up ploughing right through the Visayas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Haven't seen such out of control model runs for a long time. It's like they all went out drinking last night, were given 15 shots of tequila, blindfolded and told to walk home dragging a paint brush - that about sums up consensus right now. W Pacific is notorious for west shifting of tracks due to strength of ridge being underestimated but if Fitow ends up hitting Taiwan like GFS and a few others are showing that would be one of the craziest west shifts I've seen since typhoon Fengshen, which was forecast to recurve east of the Philippines by about 500 miles, ended up ploughing right through the Visayas! Even with a worst-case-scenario GFS coup, Josh could still jump to the southernmost Ryukyu Islands and be solidly in the core (even the eye?). No need to jump to another country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Good luck Josh and James! And Josh - if you have any extra room in the suitcase, bring us back a decent TC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I am interested to see what Fitow might do the next few days. It has a relatively large cirrus cloud shield which loosely implies it has a large wind radius. Ordinarily in a moist environment this would precondition the storm to be larger than normal and cause it to struggle to develop a tightly wound inner core. However, Fitow is also moving into a region which is anomalously dry which should limit the vorticity production from outer rainbands. As long as the vertical wind shear remains low, this dry air should not penetrate the inner core, but could aid in preserving the vorticity gradient, allowing a better chance for a robust single inner wind core to be achieved. Basically the synoptic pattern is favorable for the system to transition from a large broad wind core to a smaller and more organized wind core. We'll see if that actually transpires. Looks like that sneaky dry air did manage to wrap all the way into the core after all. Not surprisingly, AMSU retrievals now suggesting a very large / broad RMW. Although I wouldn't trust the actual RMW from AMSU (almost 200 km verbatim), structurally it appears to be a very broad core. (Not bashing your forecast btw, just showing how difficult it is to predict the size and structure of a TC core). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Looks like that sneaky dry air did manage to wrap all the way into the core after all. Not surprisingly, AMSU retrievals now suggesting a very large / broad RMW. Although I wouldn't trust the actual RMW from AMSU (almost 200 km verbatim), structurally it appears to be a very broad core. (Not bashing your forecast btw, just showing how difficult it is to predict the size and structure of a TC core). 2013WP22_16KMTPWP_201310021054.GIF Yep It looks like I'm going to bust pretty bad Will . It never developed a very well organized cirrus canopy the last 24-36 hours which has let it be susceptible to dry air intrusion. I'm not as optimistic as a few days ago. Dry air can be very tricky as you mention, especially when you deal with increasingly large systems. Large systems interact with a larger part of the environment, and when calculating vertical wind shear you need a larger radial bin to make the azimuthal vertical wind shear calculation. Just looking at the 250 hPa winds below, you can see northerly flow helping to advect lower PW air into the core of the system. This is not a favorable pattern for a large system to continue to organize, and until this northerly flow is diverted away from a powerful convective burst that reestablishes the upper level anticyclone over the TC, the storm may struggle. Good thing Josh is already flying (without internet?) he would be throwing a fit with all these track and intensity forecast challenges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Good luck Josh! 12z GFS is interesting...it builds a strong ridge north of Fitow as it approaches Okinawa...looks like a Naha hit, or at least an eyewall scrape...the interesting part is that that same location is hit by 2 more consecutive cyclones, with a 3rd looking in that same direction...that's additional to Fitow. Ok EPac and NAtl, Josh is gone...you know what to do now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 KadenaAirBase shared a link. 9 hours ago near Okinawa-shi, Okinawa, Japan We are currently in TCCOR 3: Destructive winds of 50 knots or greater are possible within 48 hours.Initiate a general cleanup around homes and office. (DM) JTWC forecast disco says track forecast confidence is low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I love how the GFS lands Fitow and two other strong TC's in Japanese islands the 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Euro turns Fitow WNW and takes it to near Shanghai as a major system in about 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 18z GFS is stronger with the ridging...goes after Miyakojima island. A good consensus would be a track between Okinawa and the Miyako islands....hopefully it either goes a bit left or right of that track. BTW, 18z GFS has a stronger ridge all around for the next 2 cyclones as well...next one threatens the Miyako islands as well, and the 3rd one is way south towards S Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Josh definitely made the right choice to chase in the WPAC the next couple of weeks. Even if Fitow doesn't deliver, two more TCs behind (GFS and ECMWF both support) might provide an opportunity for redemption (FWIW, I think the storm behind Fitow might be quite a bit more impressive than the global models currently indicate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 It could be a similar situation as to a couple of weeks ago. I was thinking Man-yi would be the main course but it was only the canapés as Usagi went on to steal the show. It's always nice to have other storms in the forecast in case things don't pan out with Fitow. The broad nature of the system helps when island chasing, this might be similar to Muifa which I chased in Okinawa in 2011. On my way to airport right now, arrive in Okinawa around 4pm local time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Josh definitely made the right choice to chase in the WPAC the next couple of weeks. Even if Fitow doesn't deliver, two more TCs behind (GFS and ECMWF both support) might provide an opportunity for redemption (FWIW, I think the storm behind Fitow might be quite a bit more impressive than the global models currently indicate) Thanks, Phil! It does seem like the trip is well-timed. Hopefully we get a direct hit from one of these three modeled cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Well, it's the off season and I'm sure as heck enjoying the downtime. Last season just about did me in-- sucked me dry. But to warm winter hearts, I did create this hawt 1-minute video-- basically, chase porn + metal. Or, my last decade of chasing in 57 seconds. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice little best-of! What a refreshing breeze it is to have you post. It's like the first sign of life coming back after this seemingly endlessly cold and snowy winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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