thewxmann Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The 500mb map on Day 7 Euro looks like a straight shot to western Japan or S. Korea. EDIT: my bad, was looking at the 12Z map, You're right, 0Z Looks like China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Author Share Posted September 29, 2013 The 500mb map on Day 7 Euro looks like a straight shot to western Japan or S. Korea. EDIT: my bad, was looking at the 12Z map, You're right, 0Z Looks like China. Who's right? P.S. 00Z is Okinawa and Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 More chinatingles. 00Z Euro at hr 135 shows a powerful cyclone clobbering ASJ. James likes this, too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 James? Where are you? Comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Sleazy, suggestive, naughty-hawt track. MMD gets a rakin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Given recent model guidance I think this could peak considerably higher than 85kts, we shall see. GFS currently the most easterly outlier with a hit on Japan west of Tokyo, UKMET and BoM models take it into Taiwan. Looking more and more likely it could hit land somewhere between Tokyo and Taiwan. A 1 "week late" version of Jelawat from last year would be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Tropical storm Fitow, JTWC and JMA tracks certainly getting those tingles going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 If you can cross the Dateline for business, why can't you cross the Dateline for your Chase Jones. I know, islands, not familiar with the territory, but maybe the Typhoon Hunter would agree to be the pilot that would put you at the controls on final approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 If you can cross the Dateline for business, why can't you cross the Dateline for your Chase Jones. I know, islands, not familiar with the territory, but maybe the Typhoon Hunter would agree to be the pilot that would put you at the controls on final approach. Lolz. James doesn't need to agree to anything. Unfamiliarity has never stopped me. I've conquered Mexican jungles on my own, and I've been toying with the idea of Madagascar and Oz in the off-season. So I'll be just fine in Japan-- with or without a partner. This having been said, James knows the turf very well-- he's worked those islands a gazillion times. He's been generous with logistical tips, and we've been having discussions-- at the very least to share a hot meal afterward. It's obvious North America is solid fail this year, and drastic measures are needed Re: my chase policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Tropical storm Fitow, JTWC and JMA tracks certainly getting those tingles going! Definite tingles. Loving that they show the W turn. Noice. I wonder what the verification rate is whe the JMA and JTWC tracks agree like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 James, check out latest JTWC. Passes right over MMD with winds of 90 kt, then heads straight for ASJ. Intensity forecast 10 kt higher this package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Newest JTWC package has trended W and stronger-- and the discussion says the forecast is actually E of the consensus, so it seems like the crappy-NE-recurve scenario is looking less likely. Don't like the weakening trend toward the end, but the rest looks hawt. Lookin' more tingly with each forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 That seems to be a default operation of JTWC of weakening at storms at that latitude, and most of the time they are but not necessarily so drastically. SSTs are hawt and enough OHC near Okinawa to support a red meat cyclone, just need the atmosphere to cooperate Interesting storm to look at is TY Chaba from 2010, it peaked near Okinawa on 28th October as a really meaty typhoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 That seems to be a default operation of JTWC of weakening at storms at that latitude, and most of the time they are but not necessarily so drastically. SSTs are hawt and enough OHC near Okinawa to support a red meat cyclone, just need the atmosphere to cooperate Interesting storm to look at is TY Chaba from 2010, it peaked near Okinawa on 28th October as a really meaty typhoon! OK cool. This is good to hear. I checked Chaba, as per your suggestion-- and, yeah, that one was awesome. One nice thing about these big WPAC cyclones is that their very size makes them less susceptible to sudden crap-outs like we see in the NATL. For example, I went down to the Yucatan to chase Rina 2011. It was a major when I left L.A., but it totally unraveled and came ashore as a TS. It was pretty painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 That seems to be a default operation of JTWC of weakening at storms at that latitude, and most of the time they are but not necessarily so drastically. SSTs are hawt and enough OHC near Okinawa to support a red meat cyclone, just need the atmosphere to cooperate Interesting storm to look at is TY Chaba from 2010, it peaked near Okinawa on 28th October as a really meaty typhoon! In this case there might be some upper jet support to delay weakening in the higher latitudes. Additionally, from my experience NW moving storms tend to unravel slower than NE moving storms (i.e. ones usually well into recurvature). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 00Z GFS is pure awesomeness. Strong cyclone into ASJ around Day 4, then another around Day 7. Later in the period, another recurves off mainland Japan and another seems headed W for Luzon. I could grow to like this chinacane action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Gettin' some pretty heavy chinatingles at this point, I'll admit. James keeps egging me on. It's kind of his fault. It's all so embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Tskkk this is just business as usual out here... In all seriousness though that GFS run is showing an impressive endless run of storms, especially considering there's been non-stop action since Pabuk and Usagi almost 10 days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Tskkk this is just business as usual out here... In all seriousness though that GFS run is showing an impressive endless run of storms, especially considering there's been non-stop action since Pabuk and Usagi almost 10 days ago! Dude, we're gonna OD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I am interested to see what Fitow might do the next few days. It has a relatively large cirrus cloud shield which loosely implies it has a large wind radius. Ordinarily in a moist environment this would precondition the storm to be larger than normal and cause it to struggle to develop a tightly wound inner core. However, Fitow is also moving into a region which is anomalously dry which should limit the vorticity production from outer rainbands. As long as the vertical wind shear remains low, this dry air should not penetrate the inner core, but could aid in preserving the vorticity gradient, allowing a better chance for a robust single inner wind core to be achieved. Basically the synoptic pattern is favorable for the system to transition from a large broad wind core to a smaller and more organized wind core. We'll see if that actually transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Hey Josh, at least you always have the 384hr 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Interesting analysis there Philippe, thanks for you insight. JMA 12z just out with Okinawa firmly in the centre of the cone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Okinawa would be cool. I was on a Flying Tigers 747 MAC charter in 1985 while they let a bunch of Marines off, and I saw a genuine SR-71 Blackbird. I feel a connection. I 'like' the Kadena AFB Facebook, so I always know the TCCOR. Currently TCCOR 4, the default condition June 1st to November 30th. Hoping for just the barest nudge to the West... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 The 12Z Euro looks to have shifted W a good bit and now brings the center just W of OKA. Kinda cool. James, check your eMail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Latest JTWC has the center passing about halfway between OKA and ASJ around 00Z Saturday-- just as it's peaking with winds of 100 kt. Not bad. Gettin' pretty intense chinatingles at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 You going to island chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 You going to island chase? It's very possible I'm gonna be eatin' a lot of crow and violatin' a lot of my "rules" over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 It's very possible I'm gonna be eatin' a lot of crow and violatin' a lot of my "rules" over the next week. gotta do what you gotta do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Latest JTWC has the center passing about halfway between OKA and ASJ around 00Z Saturday-- just as it's peaking with winds of 100 kt. Not bad. Gettin' pretty intense chinatingles at this point. Funny you keep calling it "chinatingles" since Okinawa is Japanese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.