Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Jorge got me out of bed about this (via text). That is what friends are for. What is the nearest unaffected airport? Not going to be Acapulco, I saw pictures, 2 feet of water at the terminals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Uhhh...I think there's an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Jorge got me out of bed about this (via text).And rightfully so, get your risk taking a$$ out of bed and start planning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Uhhh...I think there's an eye. I *think* that is a shadow from a hot tower. But MW says it could be the beginning of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 That is what friends are for. What is the nearest unaffected airport? Not going to be Acapulco, I saw pictures, 2 feet of water at the terminals. If I go, it would be into Culiacan. Los Mochis doesn't have good options for the time I would need to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 And rightfully so, get your risk taking a$$ out of bed and start planning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Uhhh...I think there's an eye. Last couple of frames of the loop, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Yes, it's an eye...still intensifying...cat 2/cat 3 anyone? (peak intensity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 New advisory initial 60 kt - peaking at 75 kt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Manuel would be a pretty cool name for the portfolio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Josh could turn the Ingrid bust into the Ingrid & Manuel chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 That is what friends are for. What is the nearest unaffected airport? Not going to be Acapulco, I saw pictures, 2 feet of water at the terminals. That and the fact that Los Mochis is about halfway Los Angeles and Acapulco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 That and the fact that Los Mochis is about halfway Los Angeles and Acapulco Learn something new everyday... Los Mochis was founded in 1893 by a group of American utopian socialists who were adherents of Albert Kimsey Owen, an American civil engineer who built the first irrigation ditches in the valley. The colony, organized under the principles of utopian socialism, survived for 30 years. Albert K. Owen, the American civil engineer who came to do studies for the construction of a railway, was enchanted by Ohuira Bay and imagined the city of the future, where railways and shipping lines converged to ship throughout the entire world. Today, the port city of Topolobampo continues to be developed and may one day reach Owen's dream. I think you can fly direct on Aeromexico Connect from Monterrey to Culiacan, I think you'd have to make a connection to Los Mochis. If I'm reading it right. It'll be tight. 8:41 on Aeromexico Connect arriving 9:17. Time zone involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Hmmmm...don't liking sat trends on translation. It appears it's accelerating to the NE, unless it's a wobble, but even then, that just reduced the window to get there by a good margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 18z GFS is a little faster as well...about 21 hours to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 It's pulling an Ingrid on Josh in terms of landfall timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Uber-ambitious plan to try and intercept Usagi starting tomorrow morning, will require a huge amount of luck but it's worth the risk and effort. It should peak as a cat 5 soon per JTWC, more updates to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 It looks like Manuel finally made landfall in Sinaloa, after stalling on the coast for hours, with an intensity of 65 kt/987 mb. An odd twist ending to this one. I almost got on a plane to chase this one today, but it came ashore to fast. I'm glad I didn't-- doesn't seem like it was quite worth it. That having been said, there are some very exposed beach communities right near the center, and I imagine they're getting nailed pretty good-- for example, Dautillos (24.72N 107.97W). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Uber-ambitious plan to try and intercept Usagi starting tomorrow morning, will require a huge amount of luck but it's worth the risk and effort. It should peak as a cat 5 soon per JTWC, more updates to come. Did you see my post on Usagi yesterday in this thread? It might have gotten lost in the discussion of Manuel, but I wanted to know if you were chasing, and if so, if you would be heading to southern Taiwan or what? Good luck! It's looking like a real monster right now, and even with an ERC or two, should almost certainly hit or brush Taiwan as a Cat 3+ with a good shot of at least the southern tip of Taiwan experiencing the northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 It looks like Manuel finally made landfall in Sinaloa, after stalling on the coast for hours, with an intensity of 65 kt/987 mb. An odd twist ending to this one. I almost got on a plane to chase this one today, but it came ashore to fast. I'm glad I didn't-- doesn't seem like it was quite worth it. That having been said, there are some very exposed beach communities right near the center, and I imagine they're getting nailed pretty good-- for example, Dautillos (24.72N 107.97W). rad-guas13.jpg Hmm, super slow-moving low-end hurricane dropping copious amounts of rain? Sounds like your Isaac chase to me (minus the massive eyewall and a tad weaker). I have a feeling the constant driving rain and wind with this one would become really physically and emotionally draining, especially if you had to deal with numerous washed-out roads which appears to be occurring. In retrospect, probably not a bad idea that you sat this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Hmm, super slow-moving low-end hurricane dropping copious amounts of rain? Sounds like your Isaac chase to me (minus the massive eyewall and a tad weaker). I have a feeling the constant driving rain and wind with this one would become really physically and emotionally draining, especially if you had to deal with numerous washed-out roads which appears to be occurring. In retrospect, probably not a bad idea that you sat this one out. Yeah, exactly. I was thinking exactly that-- that this would have been like Issac, the way it just stalled/wobbled on the coast-- and yeah, it does kind of wear you out. And, yeah, I'm OK about missing this one. The low-end intensity would not have been enough to justify what's probably a nightmare in terms of washed-out roads. Also, it was basically a nighttime event. On the other hand, it must have been cool to be in those exposed towns right on the coast. And Manuel is a cool name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Fantasy land cruiser on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2013 Author Share Posted September 25, 2013 Omg!!1!!!1 Forgot what that looks like. So hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 a few individual members have it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2013 Author Share Posted September 25, 2013 a few individual members have it too Hey, it's a start. I looked coser at the 12Z GFS... The feature forms near the Lesser Antilles around Day 10 and moves basically W, reaching the Yucatan as a decent cyclone by Day 16. Yeah, it's way out there in fantasyland, but it's an improvement-- the first time in a long time the GFS is actually sniffing a solid, deep-tropical cyclone. Even if the feature disappears in the 00Z, I'm just hoping it's a signal that the environment is becoming more hospitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Rays of sunshine in an otherwise bleak landscape. And 15 km resolution FIM-9 that runs through 168 hours supports the development forecast on the long range 30 km FIM-8. Verbatim, a 50-55 knot storm hitting Florida, but the 30 km FIM-8 global, maybe better. And nobody wants Florida to exceed 8 years w/o a hurricane. Can't get too optimisitic, not supported by GEFS, or op GFS. But in a dead season, any port in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Rays of sunshine in an otherwise bleak landscape. And 15 km resolution FIM-9 that runs through 168 hours supports the development forecast on the long range 30 km FIM-8. Verbatim, a 50-55 knot storm hitting Florida, but the 30 km FIM-8 global, maybe better. And nobody wants Florida to exceed 8 years w/o a hurricane. Can't get too optimisitic, not supported by GEFS, or op GFS. But in a dead season, any port in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Mark my words, I'm chasin' a 'cane before 2013 is out. Don't know where it's gonna be or when it's gonna happen, but I'm pretty determined-- even if it means breaking previous "rules" or violating previously-held beliefs. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Author Share Posted September 29, 2013 00Z Euro, Day 7. Interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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