HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 I like the IR, MW, and recon trends. Very close to pulling the trigger on this. I sniff a lot of potential with this one-- it's just givin' me a vibe. I could be wrong and bust badly, but that's part of this d*mn game, isn't it? I feel that doubt every time I go on a chase. Every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I like the IR, MW, and recon trends. Very close to pulling the trigger on this. I sniff a lot of potential with this one-- it's just givin' me a vibe. I could be wrong and bust badly, but that's part of this d*mn game, isn't it? I feel that doubt every time I go on a chase. Every time. Not that my opinion matters, but I'd say go for it. Manual is becoming less of a factor and there is no evidence that strong northwesterly shear like the GFS was suggesting would be about to take hold (especially since there is an upper level low over Mexico that is actually enhancing the outflow in the NW quadrant). 3 things are working in your favor. 1. Storm looks better organized than expected (with developing inner core as suggested by microwave and recon) 2. Expected increase in shear might not materialize (given Manual's poor convective appearance) which was not forecasted properly by BOTH ECMWF and GFS. 3. Storm is further NE than NHC forecast track and will likely have 12-24 hours longer over water than anticipated by that forecast. Landfall between Monday-Tuesday looks far more likely. Put these three factors together, and I think its very likely the current NHC forecast will bust on the low side... and outside chance of that being significantly so. Remember a few days back when I said it had the potential to be something big but was playing it safe. Its time to think about the big possibilities now, because there is plenty of time at this current organization to see a substantial storm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 Not that my opinion matters, but I'd say go for it. Manual is becoming less of a factor and there is no evidence that strong northwesterly shear like the GFS was suggesting would be about to take hold (especially since there is an upper level low over Mexico that is actually enhancing the outflow in the NW quadrant). 3 things are working in your favor. 1. Storm looks better organized than expected (with developing inner core as suggested by microwave and recon) 2. Expected increase in shear might not materialize (given Manual's poor convective appearance) which was not forecasted properly by BOTH ECMWF and GFS. 3. Storm is further NE than NHC forecast track and will likely have 12-24 hours longer over water than anticipated by that forecast. Landfall between Monday-Tuesday looks far more likely. Put these three factors together, and I think its very likely the current NHC forecast will bust on the low side... and outside chance of that being significantly so. Remember a few days back when I said it had the potential to be something big but was playing it safe. Its time to think about the big possibilities now, because there is plenty of time at this current organization to see a substantial storm out of this. Wow-- cool, Phil! You're talking really big about this one, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Wow-- cool, Phil! You're talking really big about this one, it seems. The biggest issue to deal with over the last 24 hours was Manual and what it was going to do. It had a chance to blow up during the diurnal max last night, but all its moisture flux got robbed by the MCS to its west. In fact, its struggling to stay coherent in the current gyre circulation. Both the ECMWF and GFS have an unrealistic convective profile associated with the system, which was the main contributor to the increased shear over Ingrid. Without that factor in place + the further offshore track of Ingrid, and I think we have a potentially explosive situation on our hands (the Nate that never was). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 The biggest issue to deal with over the last 24 hours was Manual and what it was going to do. It had a chance to blow up during the diurnal max last night, but all its moisture flux got robbed by the MCS to its west. In fact, its struggling to stay coherent in the current gyre circulation. Both the ECMWF and GFS have an unrealistic convective profile associated with the system, which was the main contributor to the increased shear over Ingrid. Without that factor in place + the further offshore track of Ingrid, and I think we have a potentially explosive situation on our hands (the Nate that never was). Whoa!! I'm trying to get to bed and you're gettin' me all excited with that sexy talk. Anyhoo, I like having your forecast on my side. Wonder what fozziebear (Adam) is gonna say when he wakes up and assesses. Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Much more positives than negatives this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Much more positives than negatives this morning... Yep! Last recon pass had 76 knot flight level winds with around 60 knot SFMR obs (rain contaminated but still...) NHC will probably go 60 knots at 11am, but its very close already. One thing thats a bit concerning is that the VDM's haven't indicated any sign of an eyewall developing yet, so the inner core isn't quite there yet. The continued NNE motion is a positive though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Much more positives than negatives this morning... I agree. I see nothing that would suggest this is going to weaken. Slowly and steady pressure falls and increasing winds up to landfall. Tampico to La Pesca may see an upper end CAT 1 or even low end CAT 2 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Still looking great on IR. Pumped we finally have something to get excited about. Go get em' Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I did some prelim. GIS work on the GFS landfall area last night between Tampico and Tuxpan and there are plenty of places close to the coast with a decent road network and in no threat of inundation from storm surge from at least a Cat 3. Thumbs up on my end. Go for it Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Wow-- really cool. Thanks for the heads-up. What are you thinking Re: landfall time-- given the slower GFS solution versus all the others? Yeah I'm thinking a Monday night or Tuesday morning landfall right now. And you gotta pull the trigger on this one...I think this has a legit shot at major status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Yeah I'm thinking a Monday night or Tuesday morning landfall right now. And you gotta pull the trigger on this one...I think this has a legit shot at major status. Ditto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Ditto! I'll go ahead and pile on and third this statement. At the very least, it's probably gonna be the best shot for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Any serious opinion of daylight or night time landfall? I'm about to leave for Austin, but Josh shot a 'cane that arrived at night and departed in the morning, and I thought the transition helped the video immensely. (Cueing Josh to hotlink that iCyclone video) But if I had to choose, I'd rather have a full field of hurricane force rain than just what is highlighted by headlights or a bar sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Ditto! That OLR shot you posted from the 12z GFS would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Theres ur hurricane...2nd of boring yr. AL, 10, 2013091418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 944W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 pressure down to 981! looking good! still moving n as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Yeah, Phil. This is just gut instinct, but based on the pattern here I am guessing there are two realistic scenarios based on the orientation of this trough (assuming development, of course): 1) It just keeps going slowly west-northwest and makes LF in eastern Mexico. 2) it gets picked up and eventually goes in somewhere along the NE Gulf coast a la Opal. The other alternative is it doesn't make the Mexican coast and gets left behind like the Euro shows - but my experience is that the models try to do that a lot in the Gulf, and it only very rarely actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Yeah, some of this chitchat about 95L is very c*ckteasy. And, like a dude coming off a failed romance, I'm really receptive-- perhaps in a twisted, unhealthy way-- for a rebound of some kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Yeah, some of this chitchat about 95L is very c*ckteasy. And, like a dude coming off a failed romance, I'm really receptive-- perhaps in a twisted, unhealthy way-- for a rebound of some kind. Gotta watch those rebound relationships, they can turn pretty ugly and usually don't last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Looks like Typhoon Usagi has been following the JTWC forecast almost perfectly thus far. Last 2 runs of the ECMWF and 00Z/06Z GFS all miss Taiwan to the south, but the 12Z GFS that just came in has a significant northward shift. Could be a blip or the beginnings of a trend. Hard to say for sure given the resolution of the GFS, but it looks like the southern tip of Taiwan would be in the northern eyewall for a couple hours. In terms of intensity - the structure has significantly improved over the last 12 hrs, and with a T# of 5.1 as of 15Z, Usagi is most likely a Cat 2 by now and well on its way to Cat 3. Also, it's not too often you see 934 mb in the GFS for TCs. Typhoon Hunter - is a Taiwan chase still on the table or are you just going to wait in Hong Kong for Usagi to potentially come to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Josh... I think Manuel is a good chase specimen...and like I told you in a message, this is not going to Baja...this is headed for Sinaloa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Josh... I think Manuel is a good chase specimen...and like I told you in a message, this is not going to Baja...this is headed for Sinaloa. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 I was really shocked to see the NHC only go 35 knots given they have been looking at the radar data... this is a 50-60 knot storm right now at its weakest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Holy sh*t! I just saw that MW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 The small TCs near the Baja can rapidly intensify. Semi-decent analog for what is happening currently is Ignacio in 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Topolobampo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 35 kt TC my azz. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 18 SEP 2013 Time : 170000 UTC Lat : 23:33:39 N Lon : 108:14:23 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 986.9mb/ 53.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.4 3.3 3.3 Center Temp : -67.6C Cloud Region Temp : -60.2C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Special advisory puts it at 50kt, hurricane watch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Jorge got me out of bed about this (via text). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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