Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well guess where TD10 is... the southernmost BOC. And that is a large difference in TCHP... (60 - 20) = ~40 kJ/cm^2... so this year has roughly 3 times the amount of oceanic energy in this particular region in comparison to 2011. Well, when you put it that way. It was lame before Nate. I should have changed more than just the year in the URL in the image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Thought I'd butt in here in the midst of all the TD10 talk! GFS has just had a major bust with Man-yi, full recurve looks on the cards and I'd be surprised if it even made it to typhoon strength. However all major models are spinning up a new system in Man-yi's wake, starting in about 72hrs. Medium range outlook is pretty interesting with GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET all going for a strong system tracking W to WNW. GFS looking especially HAWT... No I'll leave you in peace to get back to TD10 I don't know my PRC very well. If it misses Taiwan to the North, is it still chaseable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Unlike Josh I love island chasing so the Ryuku islands are fair game for me. Real pain in butt would be a track between main island of Okinawa and Miyakojima. Euro actually takes this into southern Taiwan as a significant system. Next name on the list is Usagi which I happened to chase in Japan in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 TD 10 does have a broad, gyre-like look to it. I hope it can consolidate fast. Curious to see the 11 pm CDT update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I see your broad gyre and raise you a giant fat ass flabby unchaseable blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 It may be about a third of a degree North of the line between forecast points, assuming I am seeing the actual center. Which I'm not assuming. I don't know how to upload the Flash loops with the forecast points on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I see your broad gyre and raise you a giant fat ass flabby unchaseable blob You guys could be the Laurel and Hardy or maybe the Martin and Lewis of chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 It may be about a third of a degree North of the line between forecast points, assuming I am seeing the actual center. Which I'm not assuming. I don't know how to upload the Flash loops with the forecast points on it... That would be awesome if it's nudging N. The big issue with cyclones this year has been latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 So the new forecast is farther N and stronger-- up to 55 kt. These are good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Scott (Strat747) and I were just chatting about how the 00Z GFS and Euro are curiously well-aligned at 72 hr, showing the center near the coast roughly halfway between TAM and BRO-- kinda near La Pesca. God knows what's going to become of this, but the alignment between the two most-reliable models is interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Scott (Strat747) and I were just chatting about how the 00Z GFS and Euro are curiously well-aligned at 72 hr, showing the center near the coast roughly halfway between TAM and BRO-- kinda near La Pesca. God knows what's going to become of this, but the alignment between the two most-reliable models is interestin'. The good news is that the new ECMWF is a little bit further east early on... so the storm probably buys itself another 12 hours over open waters The bad news is that its really going to town with 90E (in the EPAC) making it a robust hurricane before landfall (and given the rapid convective organization this morning, its probably on to something vs. the GFS). There is going to be some shear from the upper-level outflow form that system if the ECMWF is right, which is why the ECMWF only takes TD10 to a strong tropical storm. At this point, I think TD10's wellbeing its closely tied to 90E's well being... the 00z GFS shows 90E losing, while the 00z ECMWF shows 90E winning. On another note... would you be opposed to chasing 90E instead of TD10 if it becomes obvious that its the stronger storm? The ECMWF is suggesting rapid intensification in the next 24 hours from a storm that is probably already a TD. Will be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The good news is that the new ECMWF is a little bit further east early on... so the storm probably buys itself another 12 hours over open waters The bad news is that its really going to town with 90E (in the EPAC) making it a robust hurricane before landfall (and given the rapid convective organization this morning, its probably on to something vs. the GFS). There is going to be some shear from the upper-level outflow form that system if the ECMWF is right, which is why the ECMWF only takes TD10 to a strong tropical storm. At this point, I think TD10's wellbeing its closely tied to 90E's well being... the 00z GFS shows 90E losing, while the 00z ECMWF shows 90E winning. On another note... would you be opposed to chasing 90E instead of TD10 if it becomes obvious that its the stronger storm? The ECMWF is suggesting rapid intensification in the next 24 hours from a storm that is probably already a TD. Will be very interesting to watch. You have some NSA privileges there Phil? If you only knew what I messaged him about 30 min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 The good news is that the new ECMWF is a little bit further east early on... so the storm probably buys itself another 12 hours over open waters The bad news is that its really going to town with 90E (in the EPAC) making it a robust hurricane before landfall (and given the rapid convective organization this morning, its probably on to something vs. the GFS). There is going to be some shear from the upper-level outflow form that system if the ECMWF is right, which is why the ECMWF only takes TD10 to a strong tropical storm. At this point, I think TD10's wellbeing its closely tied to 90E's well being... the 00z GFS shows 90E losing, while the 00z ECMWF shows 90E winning. On another note... would you be opposed to chasing 90E instead of TD10 if it becomes obvious that its the stronger storm? The ECMWF is suggesting rapid intensification in the next 24 hours from a storm that is probably already a TD. Will be very interesting to watch. Hey, Phil-- I'll chase either side! I don't care-- whichever's stronger. The question, though-- does Manuel (90E) ever make it ashore? I can't tell from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Phil - I also have been noticing the rapid organization of 90E. CIMSS analyses show it is taking advantage of better upper level conditions as it is closer to the upper anticyclone while TD 10 is facing 15-20 kt of westerly shear due to the anticyclone near 90E becoming more well defined. The Euro suggests TD 10 will pull away from 90E and reorganize north or northeast of its current location in the next 2 days. However, if 93L does not does do this, it would likely face a hostile environment and may not develop much until 90E makes landfall and weakens. The good news is that the new ECMWF is a little bit further east early on... so the storm probably buys itself another 12 hours over open waters The bad news is that its really going to town with 90E (in the EPAC) making it a robust hurricane before landfall (and given the rapid convective organization this morning, its probably on to something vs. the GFS). There is going to be some shear from the upper-level outflow form that system if the ECMWF is right, which is why the ECMWF only takes TD10 to a strong tropical storm. At this point, I think TD10's wellbeing its closely tied to 90E's well being... the 00z GFS shows 90E losing, while the 00z ECMWF shows 90E winning. On another note... would you be opposed to chasing 90E instead of TD10 if it becomes obvious that its the stronger storm? The ECMWF is suggesting rapid intensification in the next 24 hours from a storm that is probably already a TD. Will be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Yes, 90E does become a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane on the Euro and makes landfall Sun morning about halfway between Acapulco and Manzanillo. Hey, Phil-- I'll chase either side! I don't care-- whichever's stronger. The question, though-- does Manuel (90E) ever make it ashore? I can't tell from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Yes, 90E does become a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane on the Euro and makes landfall Sun morning about halfway between Acapulco and Manzanillo. Thanks, Justin. So, what do I do? Fly to Mexico City Saturday and then just decide which coast when I get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Thanks, Justin. So, what do I do? Fly to Mexico City Saturday and then just decide which coast when I get there? Thats probably a plausible scenario. Phil - I also have been noticing the rapid organization of 90E. CIMSS analyses show it is taking advantage of better upper level conditions as it is closer to the upper anticyclone while TD 10 is facing 15-20 kt of westerly shear due to the anticyclone near 90E becoming more well defined. The Euro suggests TD 10 will pull away from 90E and reorganize north or northeast of its current location in the next 2 days. However, if 93L does not does do this, it would likely face a hostile environment and may not develop much until 90E makes landfall and weakens. I think the conditions are favorable enough thermodynamically that TD10 will still intensify some over the next 24-48 hours. However, I think once the upper-level outflow becomes better established over future Manuel that's when TD10 could run into some problems. Right now most of the shearing over TD10 is still due to a weak upper level low over Texas which has been slowly decaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 I feel like I'm cheating on Ingrid to now be talking about bedding Manuel. Scott and I talked about it, and it could be a realistic alternative. We're thinking the NHC is gonna upgrade 90E at 2 am PDT, and the forecast could be pretty aggro, given some of the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I feel like I'm cheating on Ingrid to now be talking about bedding Manuel. Scott and I talked about it, and it could be a realistic alternative. We're thinking the NHC is gonna upgrade 90E at 2 am PDT, and the forecast could be pretty aggro, given some of the modeling. Looking more and more like Pacific Mexico will be the better play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Bunch of drought-punished people here hoping like hell that TD10/Ingrid doesn't leave us high and dry. I'm hopeful that it will avenge the death of Tropical Abortion Don, murdered by the same drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Bunch of drought-punished people here hoping like hell that TD10/Ingrid doesn't leave us high and dry. I'm hopeful that it will avenge the death of Tropical Abortion Don, murdered by the same drought. Unless, at 1000 mb, it is still weak enough to reform under the deeper convection sheared to the Northeast (I've seen it happen) I think we're screwed. Did I mention the tree specialist says my water oak can't be saved. I'm still watering as long as one green leaf is on the tree. Tree guy also says I have the only water oak in the subdivision, and it was a horrible choice for Houston. It was a sapling supported by posts, 6 feet tall and 2 or 3 inches wide when we moved in, grew over 30 feet in 13 years, survived the equally bad 2011 drought. I thought it was a live oak because it didn't lose all the leaves in Winter. If only I'd known it needs 30 gallons of water per day in the Summer. My work computer version of Paint is old. But I tried to post a cheerful picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 It's a tough call.. I think that if EP90 goes like the Euro says, then it will be the stronger (and tighter) of the two storms. Euro calls for LF at 992mb and 55 kt 10m winds. The down side is that it also has a higher bust potential. Josh, what is the latest you would like to leave for a Sun morn EPAC landfall and still have a buffer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 12z GFS just crashes EP TD13 into the nearest coast as a low/mid end TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 12z GFS thinks Ingrid will be stronger than Manuel...actually it looks chaseable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The thing that intrigues me about the GFS is that it takes Ingrid fairly far out into the BOC after it get's yanked off the coast by the Trough over the east coast. It's an idea I've had for awhile now but I never had any model support for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The thing that intrigues me about the GFS is that it takes Ingrid fairly far out into the BOC after it get's yanked off the coast by the Trough over the east coast. It's an idea I've had for awhile now but I never had any model support for it.0z Euro did the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The thing that intrigues me about the GFS is that it takes Ingrid fairly far out into the BOC after it get's yanked off the coast by the Trough over the east coast. It's an idea I've had for awhile now but I never had any model support for it. It has it moving eastward starting soon, and then NNE for a while before the ridge starts to build in and it sends it back to the WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 0z Euro did the same thing I noticed it when I woke up this morning for my classes, I was waiting to see if the GFS latched on. Which it did. It has it moving eastward starting soon, and then NNE for a while before the ridge starts to build in and it sends it back to the WNW So strongly in fact that it sends Ingrid back WSW at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I noticed it when I woke up this morning for my classes, I was waiting to see if the GFS latched on. Which it did. So strongly in fact that it sends Ingrid back WSW at landfall. No matter how it evolves in the Gulf, that Tampico area has a magnet this season. It's also the strongest a GFS run shows Ingrid so far, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well, the 12Z GFS certainly is...provocative...with Ingrid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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