Jonesing for a Chase

[HurricaneJosh]

Jova would have made for some hawt footage if it had hit during the day. Smart moving leaving the car headlights on, I should have done that during Sanba but I wasn't thinking clearly due to all the urban sewage distracting me

 

It did make for some hawt footage-- even at night.  <ahem>

[Typhoon Hunter]

It did make for some hawt footage-- even at night.  <ahem>

I agree, in a kind of "Blair Witch Project" way!

[HurricaneJosh]

I agree, in a kind of "Blair Witch Project" way!

 

Better watch it, commieboy.

[Sunny and Warm]

I can see Josh running down the beach with his camera trying to reach that rain producing cloud low on the horizon before it dissipates.  Thus is the 2013 chase season in review ...

 

[Ed Lizard]

I can see Josh running down the beach with his camera trying to reach that rain producing cloud low on the horizon before it dissipates.  Thus is the 2013 chase season in review ...

 

 

Mentioned on the main tropics thread by a red atgger, the GFS higher resolution ensembles w/ enhanced initialization scheme.  One of them is slamming South Lousiana with a hurricane.  Maybe the eye would stall near Houma or Thibodaux for half a day and Josh could enjoy jambalaya and gumbo and the such made by hospitable Acadiens during the lull

 

[free_man]

You know the season is really in the sh*tter when, during the climatological peak, a single, elongated closed isobar in the Caribbean on Day 6 of the Euro seems interesting.

 

This is like 1983 without Alicia.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38601-atlantic-tropical-action-2013/?p=1973607

 

I got s*** for saying it, too.

[Ed Lizard]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38601-atlantic-tropical-action-2013/?p=1973607

 

I got s*** for saying it, too.

Not bad for December, but instead of 9/3/0, more like 13/2/1, probably.  Just looking at the CFS OLR forecast graphic, Atlantic shuts down for a couple of weeks at the Equinox if that verifies.  Not that it was really open.  May come back in October. 

I think Josh prefers non-US landfalls, myself.  Although he obviously wants to see the second coming of Hurricane King.

 

 

Which, honestly, in the era of cell cameras, TV stations, and YouTube accounts, iCyclone may be about quality, but I think it was Stalin who said quantity has a quality all its own, and hours of YouTube pr0n from a South Florida landfall, well, sign me up!

 

[free_man]

Not bad for December, but instead of 9/3/0, more like 13/2/1, probably.  Just looking at the CFS OLR forecast graphic, Atlantic shuts down for a couple of weeks at the Equinox if that verifies.  Not that it was really open.  May come back in October. 

I think Josh prefers non-US landfalls, myself.  Although he obviously wants to see the second coming of Hurricane King.

 

 

Which, honestly, in the era of cell cameras, TV stations, and YouTube accounts, iCyclone may be about quality, but I think it was Stalin who said quantity has a quality all its own, and hours of YouTube pr0n from a South Florida landfall, well, sign me up!

 

I forgot that King only had a 5 mi. eye and 14mi. swath of major damage.  That'd be interesting from a chasing standpoint...small window for success.

[HurricaneJosh]

I forgot that King only had a 5 mi. eye and 14mi. swath of major damage.  That'd be interesting from a chasing standpoint...small window for success.

 

It was  a tiny, tiny system-- probably the  smallest major to hit the USA since we started measuring these things.

 

Ernesto 2012-- which I chased-- was about the same dimensions.  It was an 85-kt Cat 2 with a very tiny core.  I got in it!  

 

[gymengineer]

I love the Joan talk... I think the '88 season is underrated for American weather nerds in exactly the same reason '07 is underrated- Gilbert/Dean and then Joan/Felix.

I do wonder what the ground conditions would have been for Gilbert, though, given the ERC and steady rise in pressure before the Yucatan landfall. Possibility of around a 900-mb landfall but only Cat 4 sustained winds?

Josh- if daytime vs night weren't an issue, would you rather be in Hugo's core or Charley's? You know I had my doubts about Hugo's actual 10-m SC landfall intensity, but you are pretty confident Hugo was a legit Cat 4. So, given two historic Cat 4 US landfalls, which would you rather experience? The prolonged hurricane condition experience ramping up to the eyewall with water being more of a threat? Or the super tight-cored, almost tornado-like eyewall passage that ramps up within like 10 minutes?

[HurricaneJosh]

I love the Joan talk... I think the '88 season is underrated for American weather nerds in exactly the same reason '07 is underrated- Gilbert/Dean and then Joan/Felix.

 

Totally!! That's a great analogy-- between 1988 and 2007. I never thought about how similar they were-- each with Cat-4+ hits to the Yucatan and Nicaragua. Weird.

 

I do wonder what the ground conditions would have been for Gilbert, though, given the ERC and steady rise in pressure before the Yucatan landfall. Possibility of around a 900-mb landfall but only Cat 4 sustained winds?

 

I've wondered the exact same thing! I'm very curious to see what they decide in reanalysis. But, given what we know now, it's entirely possible it wasn't quite sustaining 140-kt (Cat-5) winds.

 

Josh- if daytime vs night weren't an issue, would you rather be in Hugo's core or Charley's? You know I had my doubts about Hugo's actual 10-m SC landfall intensity, but you are pretty confident Hugo was a legit Cat 4. So, given two historic Cat 4 US landfalls, which would you rather experience? The prolonged hurricane condition experience ramping up to the eyewall with water being more of a threat? Or the super tight-cored, almost tornado-like eyewall passage that ramps up within like 10 minutes?

 

Oh, that's easy for me: I would totally take Charley-- the small, violent, fast one. That's more my style. All of my favorite chases were the small, violent, short-lived kind, like Jova. I remember just feeling really tired-out from the hours and hours and hours of 50-kt winds in storms like Isaac and Ike. An exception is Wilma, which was large and long-lived but also really cool.

 

Re: Hugo's landfall intensity, I believe it was a legit Cat 4.  It was strengthening up to landfall and the IR/radar presentations were pretty solid-- plus, the forest blowdown E  of the center was pretty extreme.  What do you think Hugo was at landfall?

[Sunny and Warm]

Totally!! That's a great analogy-- between 1988 and 2007. I never thought about how similar they were-- each with Cat-4+ hits to the Yucatan and Nicaragua. Weird.

 

 

I've wondered the exact same thing! I'm very curious to see what they decide in reanalysis. But, given what we know now, it's entirely possible it wasn't quite sustaining 140-kt (Cat-5) winds.

 

 

Oh, that's easy for me: I would totally take Charley-- the small, violent, fast one. That's more my style. All of my favorite chases were the small, violent, short-lived kind, like Jova. I remember just feeling really tired-out from the hours and hours and hours of 50-kt winds in storms like Isaac and Ike. An exception is Wilma, which was large and long-lived but also really cool.

 

Re: Hugo's landfall intensity, I believe it was a legit Cat 4.  It was strengthening up to landfall and the IR/radar presentations were pretty solid-- plus, the forest blowdown E  of the center was pretty extreme.  What do you think Hugo was at landfall?

Hugo was definitely a cat 4 in my book, and I am usually pessimistic about official landfall intensity estimates prior to a decade ago.

[Torchageddon]

I guess some decades are just like that -- dull, boring, crappy tracks. We're in a down period. My hypothesis is that increased convective activity in the Amazon/Sahel promote subsidence over the tropical Atlantic, and that has some periodicity to it, so we're just in a funk.

 

Otherwise, I suppose you could say global warming is systematically causing shutoff of Atlantic convective activity, but that's not going to be kosher in this thread.

 

One thing's for sure though, I have zero expectation nowadays for hurricane season besides TUTT's, landloving storms that intensify rapidly starting 6 hr before landfall, unraveled halfacanes, and SAL.

Excellent points, especially the last part. I don't think the 1st point is where the issue is but I'm starting to wonder about the 2nd part but then another side of me discounts that as something major would still blow up at one point. I read somewhere in here how there has been no "red-meat cyclone since 2008", well actually Hurricane Igor was immense in 2010 but its location was the problem.

 

So in other words it's turning into every severe event ever for you.

 Exactly!

 

The lack of thunderstorms this year in my area is pissing me off enough...now a lack of tropical systems makes me want to smash my face through the computer...

Yep, other than those two monster tornadoes and my Ice Storm, this year has been awful. Its one of the worst pattern's globally I've ever tracked or seen. Most of the heat was in Asia this time.

 

Better watch it, commieboy.

Ouch!

[free_man]

It was  a tiny, tiny system-- probably the  smallest major to hit the USA since we started measuring these things.

 

Ernesto 2012-- which I chased-- was about the same dimensions.  It was an 85-kt Cat 2 with a very tiny core.  I got in it!  

 

King was a nasty hurricane, a micro-machine of Hazel or something.    Nice footage on Ernesto, I remember that pretty well (not as well as you).  Good hurricane in retrospect, intensifying upon landfall (ala Charley) and modest size are probably a big factor upon that.  Seemed like a real nasty cane despite a relatively high pressure.

[gymengineer]

 

Re: Hugo's landfall intensity, I believe it was a legit Cat 4.  It was strengthening up to landfall and the IR/radar presentations were pretty solid-- plus, the forest blowdown E  of the center was pretty extreme.  What do you think Hugo was at landfall?

It *should* certainly be a Cat 4 based on all available aircraft/radar/IR data. The only data point against was Fujita's max gust map that we've discussed that looked pretty underwhelming, especially considering 1) those are max gusts, not sustained, and 2) since Fujita's death, our more refined understanding of winds required to cause each level of damage have resulted in downward revision of damage-based wind estimates.

Maybe it's a case where there was nothing in Hugo's path that required stronger winds to destroy than the max gusts in that map. And right along the coastline, the damage from the 20 foot storm surge would have overwhelmed evidence of damage from >135 mph sustained winds.

[HurricaneJosh]

It *should* certainly be a Cat 4 based on all available aircraft/radar/IR data. The only data point against was Fujita's max gust map that we've discussed that looked pretty underwhelming, especially considering 1) those are max gusts, not sustained, and 2) since Fujita's death, our more refined understanding of winds required to cause each level of damage have resulted in downward revision of damage-based wind estimates.

Maybe it's a case where there was nothing in Hugo's path that required stronger winds to destroy than the max gusts in that map. And right along the coastline, the damage from the 20 foot storm surge would have overwhelmed evidence of damage from >135 mph sustained winds.

 

 

Oh, yeah!  I forgot about this map.  Yeah, it always puzzled me as well-- the way the peak gusts are so far below what even the sustained-wind value should be.  The H*WIND analyses are another output that often differs markedly from the best-track values.  It just seems like the more we learn, the more we realize that the science of understanding and quantifying hurricane intensity is quite complex and frankly murky.

[metagraphica]

A mystery West Pac "historic hawtness"....

 

Ok, I know this rapid scan animation is from a West Pac storm but I'm hoping that perhaps someone can help identify it for me. (plus it's nice to look at and dream that maybe we'll see something like this in the Atlantic or cruising through the Caribbean later this year.)

 

The file's creation date is Sep 1, 2009 but I don't see any typhoons at all in 2009 that match the location, movement, and apparent intensity of this storm.  I also looked at 2008 and 2007 on Wikipedia.  Even if someone could just provide a link to prior years of West Pac seasons that would be great. 

 

Thanks and sorry this is a large (10+MB) file.

 

[icebreaker5221]

A mystery West Pac "historic hawtness"....

 

Ok, I know this rapid scan animation is from a West Pac storm but I'm hoping that perhaps someone can help identify it for me. (plus it's nice to look at and dream that maybe we'll see something like this in the Atlantic or cruising through the Caribbean later this year.)

 

The file's creation date is Sep 1, 2009 but I don't see any typhoons at all in 2009 that match the location, movement, and apparent intensity of this storm.  I also looked at 2008 and 2007 on Wikipedia.  Even if someone could just provide a link to prior years of West Pac seasons that would be great. 

 

Thanks and sorry this is a large (10+MB) file.

 

 

That was Super Typhoon Jangmi (2008). 

 

This satellite image was taken at about the same time:

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/news/2008/TC0815/MTS108092706.200815.0.1024x768.jpg

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yup Jangmi indeed, very distinctive structure and look, a beautiful storm. I chased this storm in Taiwan, missed the core due to mountain issues but filmed the most incredible wave action I've ever witnessed.

 

http://youtu.be/1s9AUB36t2A

 

Recon flew into Jangmi too:

 

URPA12 PGUA 270755
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/07:55:30Z
B. 20 deg 58 min N
125 deg 05 min E
C. 700 mb 2294 m
D. 118 kt
E. 135 deg 10 nm
F. 237 deg 136 kt
G. 137 deg 11 nm
H. 906 mb
I. 12 C / 3049 m
J. 24 C / 3043 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF306 0747W JANGMI OB 28
MAX FL WIND 163 KT E QUAD 06:16:40Z
SFC CNTR 360 / 4 NM FROM FL CNTR
WELL DEVELOPED EYE, FULL STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE WITH SEVERAL STRAITIONS IN EYEWALL CLOUDS RUNNING DIAGONALLY ALONG WALL SURFACE FROM TOP TO BASE.

[metagraphica]

That was Super Typhoon Jangmi (2008). 

 

 

Yup Jangmi indeed, very distinctive structure and look, a beautiful storm.

 

Thanks guys!  I've renamed the file on my pc so now I'll remember.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Latest model runs suggest the W Pacific is about to go beserk. Invest 95W will likely become a major typhoon and threaten land, somwhere between Japan and Taiwan. Good chance I might be packing my bags and booking flights to somewhere in the basin later in the week! 

[HurricaneJosh]

The Bay of Campeche thing is just interesting enough to create some tingles.

The NHC has designated the precursor system a Lemon tonight, and they give it a high (60%) chance of development over five day-- and while the models aren't crazy-bullish or even very consistent with the prognosis, the feature seems to be hanging in there, run to run.

Scott (Strat747) thinks my interest in the system is borderline foolish. But given the paucity of activity this season, I'd gladly chase a 70-kt Hurricane Ingrid into Tamaulipas. I've had lamer conquests.

[phil882]

The 00z ECMWF took a step backwards... with only a marginal TC where the gyre never moves off land enough to spin up a robust TC. The 00z GFS however shows a possibly rapidly intensifying TC (low end hurricane) making landfall in Tampico. Given all of the active convection in the Caribbean relative to the EPAC, I'd actually side with the more aggressive guidance currently in to the BOC vs. the EPAC. This is supported by the fact the GFS has done pretty well relative to the ECMWF in BOC disturbances this year (Barry, Fernand, TD#8).

[HurricaneJosh]

The 00z ECMWF took a step backwards... with only a marginal TC where the gyre never moves off land enough to spin up a robust TC. The 00z GFS however shows a possibly rapidly intensifying TC (low end hurricane) making landfall in Tampico. Given all of the active convection in the Caribbean relative to the EPAC, I'd actually side with the more aggressive guidance currently in to the BOC vs. the EPAC. This is supported by the fact the GFS has done pretty well relative to the ECMWF in BOC disturbances this year (Barry, Fernand, TD#8).

OK, cool. That makes sense. The 00Z GFS does look pretty interesting. Let's see if it trends in the right direction-- i.e., further N, more time over water, etc.

[Ed Lizard]

Red meat for Josh.

[wxmeddler]

Tingles, but not sold.

[HurricaneJosh]

Red meat for Josh.

 

Now yer talkin'.  

 

Tingles, but not sold.

 

Agreed. Nowhere near sold, but hey, it's a substantive ray o' hope.

[phil882]

The major ingredient the 18z GFS added here that is absolutely critical for the development of a strong TC is time... the GFS gives the system an extra 2-3 days over open waters, allowing the vorticity to accumulate in on coherent vortex. Remember how slow it took Wilma to develop (it spent 30 hours as TD before its historic RI episode the following 48 hours)

[HurricaneJosh]

The major ingredient the 18z GFS added here that is absolutely critical for the development of a strong TC is time... the GFS gives the system an extra 2-3 days over open waters, allowing the vorticity to accumulate in on coherent vortex. Remember how slow it took Wilma to develop (it spent 30 hours as TD before its historic RI episode the following 48 hours)

 

Yep, I totally remember Wilma's sloooooooow brew.  It was this big, festering soup for days-- it seemed like it would never get going-- and then... BOOM!

[Supercane]

In honor of Humberto and the possibility of another WGOM storm, I'll share one of my favorite non-chase hurricane videos. It's from Humberto 2007. I'm still amazed at how quickly that thing developed. Just imagine being this guy -- waking up to a weak low pressure offshore and no watches/warnings, then experiencing an 80KT hurricane bearing down on your oceanfront house that night.