HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2013 Author Share Posted August 28, 2013 From a land threatening perspective, the longer it takes to develop, the better ... particularly this wave. Hopefully it develops past day 9 Sí. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Past day 9? By that time it probably would have already crashed into some land mass. According to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 According to what? Its current movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Its current movement. That doesn't mean it will be moving on the same heading in 9 days, c'mon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 From a land threatening perspective, the longer it takes to develop, the better ... particularly this wave. Hopefully it develops past day 9Quiet. You'll give up our secret... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Yeah, exactly. I think of Iris as a really extreme Ernie. I've actually been chasing since 1991-- believe it or not! But I was living in Europe for the early- and mid-2000s, so I was on a long-term chase hiatus. I came out of "retirement" in 2005, for Wilma-- and since then, I've been chasing really hardcore-- more than I did in the '90s. Really? I've watched all of your chases since Wilma, but didn't see anything before then on icyclone. Do you have any of your early work online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2013 Author Share Posted August 28, 2013 Really? I've watched all of your chases since Wilma, but didn't see anything before then on icyclone. Do you have any of your early work online? Wow-- thanks for taking such an interest in my work! I do not have any of the old chases up. This is going to sound totally crazy, but when I chased in the '90s, I didn't bring a videocam or any met equipment. I was seriously just chasing because I wanted to be in the hurricane and experience it-- that was it! I mean, that's still my main motivation, but now I also get really into capturing it on video and collecting data, too. When I have some time, I'm thinking to put up written case studies for my '90s chases, like Bob 1991 (CT/RI) and Bret 1999 (TX). I can create some map graphics so there are some visuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Wow-- thanks for taking such an interest in my work! I do not have any of the old chases up. This is going to sound totally crazy, but when I chased in the '90s, I didn't bring a videocam or any met equipment. I was seriously just chasing because I wanted to be in the hurricane and experience it-- that was it! I mean, that's still my main motivation, but now I also get really into capturing it on video and collecting data, too. When I have some time, I'm thinking to put up written case studies for my '90s chases, like Bob 1991 (CT/RI) and Bret 1999 (TX). I can create some map graphics so there are some visuals. Wow, chasing without a video camera? Hard to imagine! Some new written case studies with maps and so forth would be cool to pass the quiet times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 I have offered to buy triple X fate iCyclone t-shirts and a 'Best of' just so Josh and Strat and Jorge can post as yellow taggers.... (If I pay for anything, it makes then paid forecasters, ie, yellow taggers) Josh has been promising a chase DVD for about 3 years. He could quit the globe trotting job and become a full time 24/7 chaser. India, Pakistan, Darwin, Tahiti, he'd be there for them all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Anyhoo-- thanks, icebreaker, for the porn. It did kind of lift my spirits a little this afternoon. Yea Iris is probably the smallest Major TC of the Satellite Era in the Atlantic basin... I mean when your cirrus canopy is smaller than the ENTIRE island of Jamaica thats small. At the time Iris was a 70 knot hurricane... kind of hard to believe. 24 hours later it was a Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2013 Author Share Posted August 28, 2013 Yea Iris is probably the smallest Major TC of the Satellite Era in the Atlantic basin... I mean when your cirrus canopy is smaller than the ENTIRE island of Jamaica thats small. At the time Iris was a 70 knot hurricane... kind of hard to believe. 24 hours later it was a Cat 4. Yep, agreed. I definitely think Iris was one of the smallest majors-- if not the smallest major-- in this basin in the modern era. The RMW is officially put at 5 nmi in the database, but I'll bet it was smaller. Like icebreaker said, Ernie 2012-- which I chased-- was probably like a weaker Iris, as its core was also very tightly wound. Would love to punch one like this during the day. Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2013 Author Share Posted August 28, 2013 Just checked the 00Z GFS and 00Z Euro. Absolutely nothing of interest ten days out and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Some old SSMIS weatherp0rn wouldn't be complete without Cyclone Monica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 What an awesome visible presentation Monica had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 God this is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 Can't take it no mores. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Can't take it no mores. :( Let's continue to talk the past until the present starts to shine on us. What do you have in regards to reanalysis for the Sea Islands hurricane of 1893 in SC/GA. I believe it was storm #6 that year? Tuesday was the 120 year anniversary. 1,000-2,000 died in that hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 Let's continue to talk the past until the present starts to shine on us. What do you have in regards to reanalysis for the Sea Islands hurricane of 1893 in SC/GA. I believe it was storm #6 that year? Tuesday was the 120 year anniversary. 1,000-2,000 died in that hurricane. Nerding out on reanalysis always cheers me up. The reanalysis verdict on Sea Islands was a landfall intensity of 954 mb/100 kt, with Cat-3 conditions in GA/SC and inland Cat-1 conditions in NC. The RMW was ~25 nmi. The landfall point (if you're curious) was deemed to be 31.7N 81.1W-- very near Savannah and the GA/SC border. An interesting storm. GA and the Carolinas really got nailed hard a few times that decade, including a Cat 4 for GA in 1898. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Nerding out on reanalysis always cheers me up. The reanalysis verdict on Sea Islands was a landfall intensity of 954 mb/100 kt, with Cat-3 conditions in GA/SC and inland Cat-1 conditions in NC. The RMW was ~25 nmi. The landfall point (if you're curious) was deemed to be 31.7N 81.1W-- very near Savannah and the GA/SC border. An interesting storm. GA and the Carolinas really got nailed hard a few times that decade, including a Cat 4 for GA in 1898. interesting. I was under the impression from local papers that it hit Tybee (barrier island east of Savannah), but I see from your GPS that it was south of there by 20-30 miles. I recall seeing a path at one point that it was on a close-in to the coast recurve path, but then got turned west at the last minute and was on a NW heading at landfall. I assume that is why the reports of severe hurricane conditions raking the coast from Savannah to Charleston. Water temps that time of year are often around 84F right up to the coast, so it wasn't lacking in fuel. btw, if you ever chase a hurricane in these parts, do not go to Tybee. Some super tides can close access to that island. Like many barrier islands, the ones in SC are stable on the ends, but fragile in the middle. So, if chasing, pick an end to chase from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 interesting. I was under the impression from local papers that it hit Tybee (barrier island east of Savannah), but I see from your GPS that it was south of there by 20-30 miles. I recall seeing a path at one point that it was on a close-in to the coast recurve path, but then got turned west at the last minute and was on a NW heading at landfall. I assume that is why the reports of severe hurricane conditions raking the coast from Savannah to Charleston. Water temps that time of year are often around 84F right up to the coast, so it wasn't lacking in fuel. btw, if you ever chase a hurricane in these parts, do not go to Tybee. Some super tides can close access to that island. Like many barrier islands, the ones in SC are stable on the ends, but fragile in the middle. So, if chasing, pick an end to chase from. Very interesting. Thank you for this info. If I chase something around there, I'll probably reach out to you for more details. Re: the 1893 cyclone, here's the reanalyzed track and data, if you're curious: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1893.html The center passed almost directly over Savannah, so they definitely got raked. By the way, the reanalysis dudes are working on 1959 right now, meaning they're examining an important SC cyclone, Gracie. I've done some preliminary research on that one, and I'm pretty sure that one's going to hold up under modern scrutiny as a solid Cat-3 landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 Some old SSMIS weatherp0rn wouldn't be complete without Cyclone Monica. That is pretty insane-looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Dr. Mike mentioned pattern resembling 2006. You'd hate 2006 in the Atlantic. A dead year. Nothing chaseable. Check out 2006 John and then Lane. Two very chaseable September East Pac hurricanes. John, high end Cat 2 landfalling in the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Can't take it no mores. :( Perhaps no landfalls for years to come. Plenty of time to find new hobbies and interests! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 Dr. Mike mentioned pattern resembling 2006. You'd hate 2006 in the Atlantic. A dead year. Nothing chaseable. Check out 2006 John and then Lane. Two very chaseable September East Pac hurricanes. John, high end Cat 2 landfalling in the Baja. John was cool but Lane was the real hottie-- it came ashore with a Charley-like eyewall. Yes, generally, when the NATL sucks, the EPAC is good-- or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 Looking at each 00Z and 12Z GFS run is how I imagine it's like to come home from the fertility clinic with yet another negative result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Its the Canadian, but knowing the affinity for tight core storms below 30N, no chance you'd chase a transitioning but significant hurricane in Nova Scotia? Hypothetical, of course, it being the Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Its the Canadian, but knowing the affinity for tight core storms below 30N, no chance you'd chase a transitioning but significant hurricane in Nova Scotia? Hypothetical, of course, it being the Canadian... LOL Ed. You're going give him a heart attack with questions like that. I can't see Josh chasing a storm rocketing into cold water. Too much seems to go wrong in those scenarios. Unfortunately, a transitioning storm disperses its energy, so essentially you'd have a gale center with some hurricane force winds spread out over a wide area for a few hours max. Not worth the chase from CA imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 LOL Ed. You're going give him a heart attack with questions like that. I can't see Josh chasing a storm rocketing into cold water. Too much seems to go wrong in those scenarios. Unfortunately, a transitioning storm disperses its energy, so essentially you'd have a gale center with some hurricane force winds spread out over a wide area for a few hours max. Not worth the chase from CA imo. Just messin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 There will be no more talk of icepussy lows in these parts. This here thread is supposed to be a safe zone from such antics. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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