Ed Lizard Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I'll say pass on another EC storm north of the Carolinas. I was born in Flushing, NY, Hurricane Belle and my first exposure to cable TV, the snow that never changed to rain as forecast 1978 January storm and the 'Blizzard of 1978', well, I will lurk and enjoy the NYC and SNE subforums and love it. I do understand not wanting to chase loosely organized transitioning slop storms. But if they'd had YouTube back in the 1980s, I would have liked to have seen chaser videos from Gloria. Even though I didn't know about the storm at the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I was born in Flushing, NY, Hurricane Belle and my first exposure to cable TV, the snow that never changed to rain as forecast 1978 January storm and the 'Blizzard of 1978', well, I will lurk and enjoy the NYC and SNE subforums and love it. I do understand not wanting to chase loosely organized transitioning slop storms. But if they'd had YouTube back in the 1980s, I would have liked to have seen chaser videos from Gloria. Even though I didn't know about the storm at the time... What I don't want more is to have to read the 250 pages of rampant weenie crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Yes Josh, we know. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Sorry. Eh, I'm just bored (and also discouraged if the next cane turns out to be another EC, north of the Carolinas weenie bait). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Eh, I'm just bored (and also discouraged if the next cane turns out to be another EC, north of the Carolinas weenie bait). Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Eh, I'm just bored (and also discouraged if the next cane turns out to be another EC, north of the Carolinas weenie bait). I'll take what I can get. There has been some good ones up this way. Another Isabel type storm would be fun to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 we can only hope Eh, I'm just bored (and also discouraged if the next cane turns out to be another EC, north of the Carolinas weenie bait). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 As a chaser fan who cares, 6Z run of 15km resolution FIM9 shows a Josh special Caribbean Cruiser in a week. Barely a tropical storm at this point, but the best of the Caribbean would still be to come. 0Z 30 km FIM 9 at 174 is weaker on the Caribbean system, but has it, and similar on system still in the Atlantic. Long range 0Z FIM 9 drives Caribbean system, still just a disturbance, into Central America with little development and fishes the trailing system, but the 6Z looks better. Positive note, resolution may be an issue, 0Z 15 km FIM9 at hour 168 is better developed than 0Z 30 km FIM8 at hour 168, and the FIM people claim their higher 15 km resolution FIM was competitive with the Euro last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 As the weeks went by this August without anything good, I was thinking of how pissed off Josh must be. I'm now passed pissed, I now just don't give a damn. I have a similar mindset as you so I guess I'm another admirer? I side with almost all the sediments in here, this is so beyond stupid its a joke at this point. The thread sub-title is perfect...darkness...and soul crushing too . So anyway, how's 2014 looking? I think this is the one that gets to me the most, its been said so many years after 2005. How is it looking? At this rate, pretty bad. The feeling of anticipating is pretty much over for me. I try to avoid emotional negativity about the weather. But this tropical season is just soul crushing. I look at the models and want to punch something. And I don't even chase! And by September the fronts increase and you have more re-curving systems which I'm not a fan of. Even if everything blows up, the chances of decent tracks go down . Eh, I'm just bored (and also discouraged if the next cane turns out to be another EC, north of the Carolinas weenie bait). That's what I'm afraid of, not having no hurricane impacts but maybe 1 or 2 that are weakening, loose and large, and moving near New England again which is not anywhere close to as good as southern located monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 As a chaser fan who cares, 6Z run of 15km resolution FIM9 shows a Josh special Caribbean Cruiser in a week. Barely a tropical storm at this point, but the best of the Caribbean would still be to come. 0Z 30 km FIM 9 at 174 is weaker on the Caribbean system, but has it, and similar on system still in the Atlantic. Long range 0Z FIM 9 drives Caribbean system, still just a disturbance, into Central America with little development and fishes the trailing system, but the 6Z looks better. Positive note, resolution may be an issue, 0Z 15 km FIM9 at hour 168 is better developed than 0Z 30 km FIM8 at hour 168, and the FIM people claim their higher 15 km resolution FIM was competitive with the Euro last season. Thanks for trying to make it better. As the weeks went by this August without anything good, I was thinking of how pissed off Josh must be. I'm now passed pissed, I now just don't give a damn. I have a similar mindset as you so I guess I'm another admirer? I side with almost all the sediments in here, this is so beyond stupid its a joke at this point. The thread sub-title is perfect...darkness...and soul crushing too . I guess we can just be miserable together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 Scott (Strat747) and I were talking on the phone last night, and we're just kind of aghast at the situation. The fact that the long-range modeling now stretches past peak season (10 Sep) and doesn't really show anything interesting is just kind of mind-blowing. Hopes for a 1961 or 1977 are dwindling a bit. Maybe the season's just going to be an unf*ckingbelievable dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Scott (Strat747) and I were talking on the phone last night, and we're just kind of aghast at the situation. The fact that the long-range modeling stretches past peak season (10 Sep) and doesn't really show anything that interesting is just kind of mind-blowing. Hopes for a 1961 or 1977 are dwindling a bit. Maybe the season's just going to be an unf*ckingbelievable dud. This season sort of reminds me of 2001 at this point (another non-El Nino year which likewise had a very delayed first hurricane -- September 8). In fact, September 2001 was pretty lame too. All 4 hurricanes were north of 20N and out at sea. But, of course, then came Iris and Michelle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 12Z FIM9 a tad further North with its tropical storm from the East Atlantic wave than earlier runs, but has a 35 to 40 knot TS moving WNW next Tuesday morning, on what could be a Hugo-esque path, towards the Northern Lesser Antilles, with what I'd hope would be a ridge blocking its escape before Florida to North Carolina. Always some silver lining optimism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 This season sort of reminds me of 2001 at this point (another non-El Nino year which likewise had a very delayed first hurricane -- September 8). In fact, September 2001 was pretty lame too. All 4 hurricanes were north of 20N and out at sea. But, of course, then came Iris and Michelle. Iris and Michelle totally made up for the Sep lameness. Iris was one of the hawtest hurricanes ever. I would take a totally dead season otherwise to perfectly punch the core of an Iris. Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Iris and Michelle totally made up for the Sep lameness. Iris was one of the hawtest hurricanes ever. I would take a totally dead season otherwise to perfectly punch the core of an Iris. Omg. Some Hurricane Iris p0rn to cheer Josh up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 Some Hurricane Iris p0rn to cheer Josh up! OMFG! I've never seen this shot. I've added it to my Iris porn collection. Do you have access to any others, closer to landfall? Can't believe how hawt that one was. Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 As the weeks went by this August without anything good, I was thinking of how pissed off Josh must be. I'm now passed pissed, I now just don't give a damn. I have a similar mindset as you so I guess I'm another admirer? I side with almost all the sediments in here, this is so beyond stupid its a joke at this point. The thread sub-title is perfect...darkness...and soul crushing too . I think this is the one that gets to me the most, its been said so many years after 2005. How is it looking? At this rate, pretty bad. The feeling of anticipating is pretty much over for me. And by September the fronts increase and you have more re-curving systems which I'm not a fan of. Even if everything blows up, the chances of decent tracks go down . That's what I'm afraid of, not having no hurricane impacts but maybe 1 or 2 that are weakening, loose and large, and moving near New England again which is not anywhere close to as good as southern located monsters. I guess some decades are just like that -- dull, boring, crappy tracks. We're in a down period. My hypothesis is that increased convective activity in the Amazon/Sahel promote subsidence over the tropical Atlantic, and that has some periodicity to it, so we're just in a funk. Otherwise, I suppose you could say global warming is systematically causing shutoff of Atlantic convective activity, but that's not going to be kosher in this thread. One thing's for sure though, I have zero expectation nowadays for hurricane season besides TUTT's, landloving storms that intensify rapidly starting 6 hr before landfall, unraveled halfacanes, and SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 OMFG! I've never seen this shot. I've added it to my Iris porn collection. Do you have access to any others, closer to landfall? Can't believe how hawt that one was. Omg. Unfortunately all the passes closer to the time of landfall were either poorly timed or had missing data. This was the only other good pass I could get. It must have been just an hour or two after the eyewall became non-distinct: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 Unfortunately all the passes closer to the time of landfall were either poorly timed or had missing data. This was the only other good pass I could get. It must have been just an hour or two after the eyewall became non-distinct: 20011009.0330.trmm.tmi_85h.x.11LIRIS.60kts-990mb.jpg Grrrr. But you can see just from that nice blob of red that it must have been fierce at landfall. Thanks for digging these up-- I'd never seen them before. P.S. Too bad there aren't BZE radar shots of this, too. They have a good radar system, and I wrote to them asking if they had anything, but they said no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I guess some decades are just like that -- dull, boring, crappy tracks. We're in a down period. My hypothesis is that increased convective activity in the Amazon/Sahel promote subsidence over the tropical Atlantic, and that has some periodicity to it, so we're just in a funk. Otherwise, I suppose you could say global warming is systematically causing shutoff of Atlantic convective activity, but that's not going to be kosher in this thread. One thing's for sure though, I have zero expectation nowadays for hurricane season besides TUTT's, landloving storms that intensify rapidly starting 6 hr before landfall, unraveled halfacanes, and SAL. So in other words it's turning into every severe event ever for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Grrrr. But you can see just from that nice blob of red that it must have been fierce at landfall. Thanks for digging these up-- I'd never seen them before. P.S. Too bad there aren't BZE radar shots of this, too. They have a good radar system, and I wrote to them asking if they had anything, but they said no. For sure! That deep convection would certainly be mixing some pretty intense winds to the surface. I guess this one was before you chase days, but I could imagine something like your Ernesto (2012) chase but slightly further south and an even more climactic, albeit brief peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Scott (Strat747) and I were talking on the phone last night, and we're just kind of aghast at the situation. The fact that the long-range modeling now stretches past peak season (10 Sep) and doesn't really show anything interesting is just kind of mind-blowing. Hopes for a 1961 or 1977 are dwindling a bit. Maybe the season's just going to be an unf*ckingbelievable dud. I think part of the problem is that models are doing a much better job keeping the false alarms (falsely predicting robust TCs) to a minimum as we improve our understanding of convective feedback issues. I think if you go back pre-2010... seasons thats were really boring with limited TC action still had their share of false alarm TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 For sure! That deep convection would certainly be mixing some pretty intense winds to the surface. I guess this one was before you chase days, but I could imagine something like your Ernesto (2012) chase but slightly further south and an even more climactic, albeit brief peak. Yeah, exactly. I think of Iris as a really extreme Ernie. I've actually been chasing since 1991-- believe it or not! But I was living in Europe for the early- and mid-2000s, so I was on a long-term chase hiatus. I came out of "retirement" in 2005, for Wilma-- and since then, I've been chasing really hardcore-- more than I did in the '90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 Anyhoo-- thanks, icebreaker, for the porn. It did kind of lift my spirits a little this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 2004 and especially 2005 apparently got people's expectations too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 2004 and especially 2005 apparently got people's expectations too high. + 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, and even 2007-08 to an extent... the good ol' red meat seasons from back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 2004 and especially 2005 apparently got people's expectations too high. Yes and no. I'm a history/reanalysis nerd, so I have a good long-term perspective on things. For me, it has nothing to do with 2004 and 2005, which I recognize as off-the-charts weird. I'm talking about the lack of one really solid, red-meat cyclone in this basin since 2008. That is just weird. The '70s and '80s really sucked, but even those decades had some really good systems every couple of years: Celia 1970, Edith 1971, Carmen 1974, Eloise 1975, Anita 1977, David 1979, Frederic 1979 Allen 1980, Alicia 1983, Diana 1984, Elena 1985, Gilbert 1988, Hugo 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Still 0% for that wave... come on.. Even NOAA's own product suggest 10-20% in the next 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Still 0% for that wave... come on.. Even NOAA's own product suggest 10-20% in the next 48hrs. From a land threatening perspective, the longer it takes to develop, the better ... particularly this wave. Hopefully it develops past day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 From a land threatening perspective, the longer it takes to develop, the better ... particularly this wave. Hopefully it develops past day 9 Past day 9? By that time it probably would have already crashed into some land mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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