HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2013 Author Share Posted August 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Really want a threat from NC to NY this season so I can chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Not to be a buzzkill, but while GEFS start showing storms in the Atlantic starting at the end of the month, GEFS, reforecast ensemble anomalies, and 0Z 336 hour 30 km FIM-9 suggests absolutely nothing chaseable in the Atlantic Basin through the Labor Day Weekend. FIM 9 brings a decent system towards the Lesser Antilles just after Labor Day, but nothing before. The ESRL reforecast ensemble anamolies are rather depressing in that the above average rainfall stays mainly Pacific side next two weeks. No signal for an Atlantic TC near North America. Only positive sign, pretty strong 0Z and 6Z GFS ensemble signal for more EPac TC activity that moves Northwest rather than the usual WNW next week. (See below) Anything Atlantic side before Labor Day will involve something not being forecast by reliable models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Those ensembles generally support the 12Z op Euro, a near miss on the Southern Baja in 8-10 days of a stronger system than the current cherry. Sustained 10 meter winds 55-60 knots per AccuWx PPV graphics, and a near miss, but both could change over a week out. Only potential chasing opportunity I see in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 Really want a threat from NC to NY this season so I can chase. :hugz: Only potential chasing opportunity I see in August. August is shot. I'm cool with the EPAC sucking right now-- the red-meat chase action doesn't start there until Oct. But I just wanna punch the NATL. I'm growing to hate the whole basin. It just sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 So anyway, how's 2014 looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 So anyway, how's 2014 looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 August is shot. I'm cool with the EPAC sucking right now-- the red-meat chase action doesn't start there until Oct. But I just wanna punch the NATL. I'm growing to hate the whole basin. It just sucks. Punch Africa. Them and their damn dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 Punch Africa. Them and their damn dust. Totally. I'm just furious with the whole continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 The long-range models, including the GFS, do keep showing Cape Verde storms, even hurricanes, on and off at random runs, but they lose them prior to getting past 65W or so. Even with poor resolution that far out, I am a bit baffled by that. 2008 Today I think, in all honest, perhaps it's just too damn dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShannonW Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Totally. I'm just furious with the whole continent. Keep the faith. Just had a new roof put on. Must mean I'll be seeing a cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Keep the faith. Just had a new roof put on. Must mean I'll be seeing a cane. You live in SW Florida? Best CONUS TC chasing videos I have ever seen have been from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 Keep the faith. Just had a new roof put on. Must mean I'll be seeing a cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 August 23: One basin completely devoid of interest; complete and utter crap in the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 August 23: One basin completely devoid of interest; complete and utter crap in the other. Hey Josh - you know you've made a positive mark on the world with your intense love of hurricanes and your fire to hunker down in the eye when a stranger on the Internet wakes in the morning, checks the NHC site and, seeing not a speck of color, says to himself, 'damn, I bet Josh is sparking mad this morning.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 August 23: One basin completely devoid of interest; complete and utter crap in the other. I try to avoid emotional negativity about the weather. But this tropical season is just soul crushing. I look at the models and want to punch something. And I don't even chase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I try to avoid emotional negativity about the weather. But this tropical season is just soul crushing. I look at the models and want to punch something. And I don't even chase! It really is brutal, I don't even care where they go at this point, I just want to see some damn spaghetti plots on a strengthening hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 It really is brutal, I don't even care where they go at this point, I just want to see some damn spaghetti plots on a strengthening hurricane. At 996 or below, all those are near or above hurricane strength. Just need to shift them a couple of hundred miles to the East and we'd be a week away from a San Jose de los Cabos YouTube adventure from iCyclone, and in a week, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 Hey Josh - you know you've made a positive mark on the world with your intense love of hurricanes and your fire to hunker down in the eye when a stranger on the Internet wakes in the morning, checks the NHC site and, seeing not a speck of color, says to himself, 'damn, I bet Josh is sparking mad this morning.' Omg, thank you. I try to avoid emotional negativity about the weather. But this tropical season is just soul crushing. I look at the models and want to punch something. And I don't even chase! You expressed my feelings exactly-- it's a perfect combo of crushed soul + weather-nerd rage. It really is brutal, I don't even care where they go at this point, I just want to see some damn spaghetti plots on a strengthening hurricane. Totally. Just something to look at, for crying out loud. Something to remind us that the NATL has a pulse-- that it's not a frozen corpse. The lack of activity is almost getting creepy. At 996 or below, all those are near or above hurricane strength. Just need to shift them a couple of hundred miles to the East and we'd be a week away from a San Jose de los Cabos YouTube adventure from iCyclone, and in a week, who knows? That would be awesome, of course. So far I'm not too angry with the EPAC, because good landfalls are really, really rare before Oct. So if a chase were to materialize before late Sep, it would be total bonus stuff, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Going this long without a chase is like going without sex for a while. You almost forget what it feels like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Going this long without a chase is like going without sex for a while. You almost forget what it feels like. there's always 95L to chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 there's always 95L to chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Hush all o' youz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 The lameicane stretch has to end at some point... I hope for every chaser's sanity it will be sooner rather than later. Also preferably somewhere warmer... Sandy was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 The lameicane stretch has to end at some point... I hope for every chaser's sanity it will be sooner rather than later. Also preferably somewhere warmer... Sandy was awful. From a tropical dude's perspective, Sandy was crap. What was there to even chase-- a 300-mile area of 50-kt winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 From a tropical dude's perspective, Sandy was crap. What was there to even chase-- a 300-mile area of 50-kt winds? Yes Josh, we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I suppose you guys have seen the 384 hour pure weenie deliciousness of the GFS, happiness for many subforums, Gloria-esque. (I missed Gloria, working and w/o TV or internet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I suppose you guys have seen the 384 hour pure weenie deliciousness of the GFS, happiness for many subforums, Gloria-esque. (I missed Gloria, working and w/o TV or internet). I'll say pass on another EC storm north of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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