Jonesing for a Chase

[bkviking]

Re: this Christopher dude... He's been a fan of mine for years-- kind of has this obsession with me, lurks for months at a time, and then once a year makes a weird love-hate sort of post. I'm convinced the walls of his bedroom are covered with blown-up photos of me.

This is funny. Can't stop laughing, but now I'm envisaging some guy similar to the one in Ted where he's dancing to Tiffany's video "I think we're alone now." Creepy. Regardless, he's probably pent up bc he hasn't been blown in a while. By a hurricane, I mean.

[Ed Lizard]

Tropical Storm Doria and going to sleep in my parents room because the trees were blowing, , barely Cat 1 Belle, the 1976-1978 winters as a Catholic school boy, and the Blizzard of '78, I didn't choose being a weenie, being a weenie chose me.

 

 

 

Edit to add- having a hole ripped in the forecastle room on a 90,000 ton ship I was on, said hole 20 or 30 feet above the waterline, and walking on the walls on said large ship, as we sailed in the periphery of Typhoon Skip in the South China Sea, not everyone has experienced sensible weather from both a hurricane and a typhoon....

 

 

Typhoon Skip

 

 

 

 

I still can't control the weather, BTW.

 

Edit to add again, full disc pic doesn't want to hotlink...

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b1/.D2790P/images/1988/311/Img-1988-11-06-06-GMS-3-VS.jpg

 

Oh, it is ftp...

[HurricaneJosh]

Holy Hostility, Batman!

Yeah, it seems to come out of the blue.

 

(Hint, I don't make the weather, I only observe it from a distance)

Yep. You'd think we were these warlocks, brewing the cyclones in special cauldrons and then sending them to wreak havoc on population centers.

 

This is funny. Can't stop laughing, but now I'm envisaging some guy similar to the one in Ted where he's dancing to Tiffany's video "I think we're alone now." Creepy. Regardless, he's probably pent up bc he hasn't been blown in a while. By a hurricane, I mean.

 

[SmokeEater]

Glass 5/32nds full the iCyclone team will be booking flights to Miami this time next week. They/he won't try to connect to PBI, DAB or MLB because of weather concerns, they'll rent a car and experience I-95. Does Josh have an experienced Florida chase partner after 92 months since Wilma?

Ahhh, yes go ahead and drink that 5/32 glass of cool aid and eat that humble pie. Man up and take your cat 3's or 4's in your hood. Stop wishing for hurricanes in other states. Just think no power for weeks, and fighting the insurance company. What a wonderful thing to think about! You and the middle-age ego tripping chaser can do plenty of filming for YouTube. Stop watching from the sidelines, instead be in on the action in your area. There is no better feeling, then watching your home being destroyed and watching it on YouTube.

A guy with 27 posts, whines, and doesn't get the dynamic of this thread, who didn't see that coming? lol

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2

[HurricaneJosh]

A guy with 27 posts, whines, and doesn't get the dynamic of this thread, who didn't see that coming? lol

 

lolz

[andyhb]

Looking pretty bleak for the next week or two at least.

[wxmx]

Next MJO passage will coincide with the climatological Atlantic uptick in about a month. I foresee a decent/good August.

[phil882]

Agree with Jorge... this MJO episode is taking a bit to propagate around, but its setting up to be quite a favorable period between 15 Aug though the first week of September if you want to believe the CFS.

[Superstorm93]

^^

 

The CFSv2 4 ensembles runs courtesy of WeatherBell really light up the MDR come mid to late August and continue to spit storms out into September. I'm really chomping at the bit here for a nice red-meat CV system before the end of August. 

 

Pressures lower across the entire basin by late August 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Thanks for the words of encouragement, guys.  

[Ed Lizard]

Because I care, and am naturally optimistic.

 

I used to watch the Joe Bastardi videos back when he was at AccuWeather.  Yes, I know not everyone approves.  But he used to have a theory, which sometimes seemed to work, that the pattern in the West Pac 'telegraphed' what the pattern in the Western Atlantic would be 10 to 14 days later.  This is a one week forecast from the GFS, showing one of a series of tropical cyclones at low latitude and not recurving.  First two landfalling in Asia very near 20ºN.

 

*IF* there is any validity to the Bastardi theorem, if there are any TCs beyond the current drought, beyond Mid-August, well, good times.

 

I know Caribbean Cruisers aren't as popular as systems that would generate far more You Tube chaser video, like Florida, but some people seem very comfortable chasing Belize and Mexico, and there is always the chance of a Yucatan landfall and a second Mexican landfall for double the videos.

 

 

[Scott747]

Thanks for the words of encouragement, guys.  

 

Right on cue...

 

Starts to get interesting in fantasyland on the 15th before moving into the Gulf in uber fantasyland

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Because I care, and am naturally optimistic.

 

I used to watch the Joe Bastardi videos back when he was at AccuWeather.  Yes, I know not everyone approves.  But he used to have a theory, which sometimes seemed to work, that the pattern in the West Pac 'telegraphed' what the pattern in the Western Atlantic would be 10 to 14 days later.  This is a one week forecast from the GFS, showing one of a series of tropical cyclones at low latitude and not recurving.  First two landfalling in Asia very near 20ºN.

 

*IF* there is any validity to the Bastardi theorem, if there are any TCs beyond the current drought, beyond Mid-August, well, good times.

 

I know Caribbean Cruisers aren't as popular as systems that would generate far more You Tube chaser video, like Florida, but some people seem very comfortable chasing Belize and Mexico, and there is always the chance of a Yucatan landfall and a second Mexican landfall for double the videos.

 

 

 

 

What I'd give for a decent  low-latitude system that doesn't recurve.  Omg.

[HurricaneJosh]

Right on cue...

 

Starts to get interesting in fantasyland on the 15th before moving into the Gulf in uber fantasyland

 

 

Yay!!  

[Ed Lizard]

MILD OPTIMISM WATCH

 

The 0Z and 6Z 15 km FIM9 at hour 168 (as far as that runs) agree well with 30 km FIM8, which runs 2 weeks.  The lower res FIM8 has a Dolly-esque chase.  Winds never reach hurricane force on graphic, an artifact perhaps of the model resolution or the display resolution, but an eye feature is apparent.

 

A couple of the GEFS pick up on this, but not many.  Further down the road optimism, the GEFS towards 2 weeks start really showing a signal for Cape Verde development, although, as we know, while some of the best storms come from out there, most fish.

 

Whereas a Caribbean development headed into the Gulf, it has a hard time not landfalling somewhere.

[Ed Lizard]

 

MILD OPTIMISM WATCH

 

The 0Z and 6Z 15 km FIM9 at hour 168 (as far as that runs) agree well with 30 km FIM8, which runs 2 weeks.  The lower res FIM8 has a Dolly-esque chase.  Winds never reach hurricane force on graphic, an artifact perhaps of the model resolution or the display resolution, but an eye feature is apparent.

 

A couple of the GEFS pick up on this, but not many.  Further down the road optimism, the GEFS towards 2 weeks start really showing a signal for Cape Verde development, although, as we know, while some of the best storms come from out there, most fish.

 

Whereas a Caribbean development headed into the Gulf, it has a hard time not landfalling somewhere.

 

 

GFS is weak and Florida, I don't know what the 12Z 30 km long range FIM will show, but the FIM9 says hold on to that chasing feeling.

[am19psu]

Why are you latching onto the FIM when none of the reliable global models show anything? This is why I get annoyed.

[wxmx]

Why are you latching onto the FIM when none of the reliable global models show anything? This is why I get annoyed.

That was until 18z GFS

[HurricaneJosh]

Why are you latching onto the FIM when none of the reliable global models show anything? This is why I get annoyed.

 

Tough tropical dude.

 

Tropical crackdown.

 

[HurricaneJosh]

That was until 18z GFS

 

Scott sent me a text about it.  

[Minnesota Meso]

Why are you latching onto the FIM when none of the reliable global models show anything? This is why I get annoyed.

 

I do look at the FIM model during the winter months when a snowstorm is possible up here in the northern lats, at times it does preform better than the GFS, at other times not so much, but often times it does real well with 850 temps and winds.  I think Ed is subscribing to his glass 1/4 full instead of 3/4 empty.  Can't blame one for that, while not forecasting development he does hint at the possibility even if it's remote at best.

[Ed Lizard]

Why are you latching onto the FIM when none of the reliable global models show anything? This is why I get annoyed.

 

 

The 12Z GFS came close to doing something with this, for one thing.  And the FIMs ( 15 km and 30 km)  have been fairly consistent last few runs.  And was decent during Dorian.  Some GEFS support.  As I noted earlier on KHOU-TV 11 local forum, lack of Euro support was troubling.  Before WxMX mentioned same concern in main tropical thread.

 

And I am trying to be upbeat and optimistic.  And my understanding the 7 day 15 km FIM9 in hindcast mode (per FIM people) was competitive in the tropics with the Euro.  (page 13, IIRC   http://ruc.noaa.gov/pdf/FIM-1y-retro-NCEP-MEG-6june2013.pdf )

 

And the glass quarter full when things are extra-dull, yeah, part of my silver lining rosy glasses natural optimism.

[am19psu]

The 12Z GFS came close to doing something with this, for one thing.  And the FIMs ( 15 km and 30 km)  have been fairly consistent last few runs.  And was decent during Dorian.  Some GEFS support.  As I noted earlier on KHOU-TV 11 local forum, lack of Euro support was troubling.  Before WxMX mentioned same concern in main tropical thread.

 

And I am trying to be upbeat and optimistic.  And my understanding the 7 day 15 km FIM9 in hindcast mode (per FIM people) was competitive in the tropics with the Euro.  (page 13, IIRC   http://ruc.noaa.gov/pdf/FIM-1y-retro-NCEP-MEG-6june2013.pdf )

 

And the glass quarter full when things are extra-dull, yeah, part of my silver lining rosy glasses natural optimism.

Are we talking tracks, intensity, or genesis? The postseason review showed the experimental FIMs were good for track forecasting last year, but I am very skeptical of small grid size models in the tropics that aren't the Euro. They are usually biased wayyyyyy too high for genesis and intensity because of convective feedback problems (this is the reason I always yell at people for posting the NAM - and even the Euro probably had a high intensity bias the last two years). I'm not necessarily against something forming down there, but I'm definitely against something chaseable forming. Anything that goes will be some weaksauce, slopgyre, rainer.

[Ed Lizard]

Are we talking tracks, intensity, or genesis? The postseason review showed the experimental FIMs were good for track forecasting last year, but I am very skeptical of small grid size models in the tropics that aren't the Euro. They are usually biased wayyyyyy too high for genesis and intensity because of convective feedback problems (this is the reason I always yell at people for posting the NAM - and even the Euro probably had a high intensity bias the last two years). I'm not necessarily against something forming down there, but I'm definitely against something chaseable forming. Anything that goes will be some weaksauce, slopgyre, rainer.

 

The only thing less than optimum I see on GFS 4 panel before truncation for continued strengthening is a some dry air to the West.   I would also think final track and time over decent TCHP might result in a decent system.   http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl&cycle=00&fhr=192&param=300_wnd_ht|850_vort_ht|700_rh_ht|10m_wnd_precip&size=medium

 

And I was kind of figuring if the 15 km and 30 km FIM had similar solutions, grid scale wasn't driving it.  Finally, Euro was weak on Dorian genesis, it didn't seem to resolve it until it already formed, which is why a lack of Euro support so far isn't an automatic disqualifer for me.

[am19psu]

Finally, Euro was weak on Dorian genesis, it didn't seem to resolve it until it already formed, which is why a lack of Euro support so far isn't an automatic disqualifer for me.

I don't disagree with you here, except that Dorian sucked. If the Euro misses 50% of crappy storms and 0% of awesome storms (e.g.), it seems like that's a pretty good piece of guidance. Like I said, I can see some sloppy 40-50 kt system coming out of the W Carib into the W Gulf next week, but that isn't something that's going to really move the needle, imo.

[Ed Lizard]

I see Bendy Mod is iCyclone's chief meteorologist,  Congratulations.

 

I am hoping for a 94E chase...

 

GFS suggests it will compete with a system to the East, I have seen a couple of runs with Fujiwara interaction, SHIPS shows a Cat 1.  But there have been good Cat 1 chases before.

[HurricaneJosh]

I see Bendy Mod is iCyclone's chief meteorologist,  Congratulations.

 

Well, he basically has been for years-- that was the first time we explicitly described him that way in a post.  But if you notice in the About section of the page, he and Jorge (who administer the page with me) are mentioned.  My right-hand man, Scott (Strat747), would be, too, but he's not so hot on Facebook.

[Ed Lizard]

Well, he basically has been for years-- that was the first time we explicitly described him that way in a post.  But if you notice in the About section of the page, he and Jorge (who administer the page with me) are mentioned.  My right-hand man, Scott (Strat747), would be, too, but he's not so hot on Facebook.

 

I read your FB for the articles hawt YouTubes

[HurricaneJosh]

I read your FB for the articles hawt YouTubes

 

[Dunkman]

I remember the good ole days when Josh was worried about chasing yet another storm because he had already taken so many days off from work.  Haven't had that problem in a while!