HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 "October in the EPAC" has become an almost religious mantra in my head these past few weeks. It's a symbol of hope-- my city on the hill. Jorge suggested an MJO pulse plus some troughing in the W USA may coincide to create some opportunities in early/mid-Oct. Hopefully he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Josh, are you considering a Jamaica chase? Very good model agreement on a track across Jamaica, with the best cluster just west of Kingston, Jamaica. The statistical intensity guidance supports a cat 1 for Jamaica, but the 0z HWRF and the 12z AHW4 (experimental WRF model) both have a cat 2. I would not be surprised to see Sandy become a hurricane as early as late tonight or Wed morning given the rapid increase in organization seen on satellite (with a CDO gradually developing, as well as the good outflow and expected low shear. http://www.hfip.org/data_tracker/index.cgi?dsKey=al182012&runTime=Stream1.5&domain=RegionalTrack http://www.hfip.org/data/index.cgi?dsKey=ahw4&run_time=23+Oct+2012+-+00Z&domain=Eighteen_99AL¶meter=allfields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I was also noticing the convective appearance and organization has improved quite markedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 The 2012 season ends today. For me, the season headline wasn't Isaac or Sandy, but rather, ERNESTO-- a small, angry cyclone whose center passed very close to my location in the Yucatan jungles one dark August night. The impact was short-lived but intense-- actually quite scary for about 15 minutes, as the tiny eye passed about 2 mi to my S and violent winds tore at the rickety old roadside restaurant I was in. My pressure trace is telling-- an extremely fast, sharp dip followed by an equally abrupt recovery: a classic, deep-tropical microcane. The NHC is currently doing postanalysis on the cyclone, and the rumor in town is that the landfall intensity will be upped to 80 or 85 kt. My lowest pressure-- 975.0 mb, taken very close to the center-- supports Cat 2 when other metrics are factored in (RMW, forward speed, latitude, and intensity tend). Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Coudld always grab the passport and head for the RP. JTWC forecasting 110 knots for Bopha. NOt sure anyone knows Filipino geography well on the forum, however... That was some sweet video. Seems, to an interested observer, half of the fun of the chase is getting to the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The island water mi of the Visayas aren't as nasty to storms as is Luzon but Leyte where the storm is headed for does have decent mountains. Dinagat or Surigao Islands just offshore Leyte would be good places but rather remote and not easy to get to. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Needless to say, the 2012 chase season was a bit disappointing in the NATL and EPAC. It wasn't a complete disaster. Isaac was interesting and Ernesto was sexy little storm-- and the NHC's postanalysis upgrade of Ernesto (and citation of my data in that process) was a very pleasant surprise. But there was no red-meat, Cat-3, chaseable landfall in either basin. (Sandy's Cuba landfall will probably be upgraded to 100 kt, but you know what I mean.) Well... I have no intention of waiting until next August for some action. No, sirree. And so that means I have to look to the S Hemisphere. This winter, I'm keeping an extra-close eye on Oz and Madagascar, and I'll consider chases in both places. So let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Heh. I remember my last pic at Eastern before it went belly up. An image with you in that sombrero hat that someone had photo shopped with a caption of "Madagascar or bust!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I know multiple people who are experienced global travelers and were victims of violent crime while in Madagascar. Even compared to dangerous places, Madagascar is an exceptionally dangerous place. I wouldn't want to chase there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I know multiple people who are experienced global travelers and were victims of violent crime while in Madagascar. Even compared to dangerous places, Madagascar is an exceptionally dangerous place. I wouldn't want to chase there. Could be, though the U.S. travel information is not as strongly worded as, for example, Mexico...which has a strong negative perception among US citizens, partly justified, but for the most part exaggerated, especially in recent times which has seen an abrupt decline on crime in many parts of the country. Of course, all precautions should be taken, a foreigner in any country is viewed as an easy target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Australia is safe. I'd guess for a first timer, tagging along with an experienced Australian chaser, or at least a native weather follower, would be the way to go. Long airplane flight just to get there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Australia is safe. I'd guess for a first timer, tagging along with an experienced Australian chaser, or at least a native weather follower, would be the way to go. Long airplane flight just to get there... I'm perfectly OK to chase alone. No tagging along necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm perfectly OK to chase alone. No tagging along necessary. You have complete faith in road maps and GPS. I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 You have complete faith in road maps and GPS. I assume. Let's say I have enough faith in my ability to navigate a new location and figure it out using all available tools. Australia wouldn't be the toughest turf I've chased, so I feel OK about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 I know multiple people who are experienced global travelers and were victims of violent crime while in Madagascar. Even compared to dangerous places, Madagascar is an exceptionally dangerous place. I wouldn't want to chase there. It is a concern, and I've been researching it, trying to assess the nature of the risk. It's one of those places where it probably makes sense to hire a driver/interpreter. Like Jorge said, it's often hard to discern the exact nature of the risk from the State Dept. literature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Moved pic to here: LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Pr0n for Josh: Evan down in Samoa. By my rough calculations the eye is about 12-14 miles in diameter. Thank you, James. Yeah, Evan has had surprising moments of hawtness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: the 2013 NATL names, I'd like to chase Andrea, Chantal, Gabrielle, Ingrid, Olga, Rebekah, Tanya, or Wendy. (I prefer chick names, for some reason, and I like the more exotic-sounding or ethnic ones.) Of the dude names, Dorian, Lorenzo, and Sebastien are kind of cool. My favorite name of all time remains Wilma. I couldn't believe there was actually a hurricane named Wilma-- it just seemed so absurd-- and its very weirdness made it awesome. It could only be exceeded by a Wanda (in 2015). And that's your wx wisdom for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 P.S. The EPAC's 2013 list has some cool, chaseable-sounding names: Cosme, Dalila, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Narda, Priscilla, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Xina, York, and-- best of all-- Zelda. (Zelda would almost be cooler than Wilma.) On a related note... I still don't understand why the EPAC names aren't entirely Spanish, since the only countries affected are Spanish-speaking (except for the once-per-decade USA impact). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I still think Hurricane Fernand sounds exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Re: the 2013 NATL names, I'd like to chase Andrea, Chantal, Gabrielle, Ingrid, Olga, Rebekah, Tanya, or Wendy. (I prefer chick names, for some reason, and I like the more exotic-sounding or ethnic ones.) Of the dude names, Dorian, Lorenzo, and Sebastien are kind of cool. Dorian and Ingrid definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Posting the la la land stuff here with the main thread being prim and proper now... That fantasy cruiser I started telling you about last week should be splashing down in a day or so. Sorta merges with the wave out ahead of it. Clips the YP and heads towards Texas. Dollyish on the timeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Posting the la la land stuff here with the main thread being prim and proper now... That fantasy cruiser I started telling you about last week should be splashing down in a day or so. Sorta merges with the wave out ahead of it. Clips the YP and heads towards Texas. Dollyish on the timeline. 0z Euro shows this TW developing as well, but it's faster, already in the C Carib by day 10. It's la la land stuff, but I expect more ridging than with Chantal at that time frame for a good part of the basin, as well as the CONUS east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 8, 2013 Author Share Posted July 8, 2013 Did someone say "Caribbean Cruiser"? Look out... By uttering those words, you have raised the dead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Did someone say "Caribbean Cruiser"? Look out... By uttering those words, you have raised the dead... Chantal might be a nice appetizer before we get too carried away talking about TW that have yet to emerge off the African coast in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 Chantal might be a nice appetizer before we get too carried away talking about TW that have yet to emerge off the African coast in July Hush. Chantal is crap. Already bored with it. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Posting the la la land stuff here with the main thread being prim and proper now... That fantasy cruiser I started telling you about last week should be splashing down in a day or so. Sorta merges with the wave out ahead of it. Clips the YP and heads towards Texas. Dollyish on the timeline. Bendy Mod will be a bit pre occupied. We'll always have this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 Posting the la la land stuff here with the main thread being prim and proper now... It's true-- the main thread has gotten all brainy and classy. It ain't our turf no mores. Bendy Mod will be a bit pre occupied. We'll always have this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Hush. Chantal is crap. Already bored with it. Next! You have to admit, though, that this season has loads of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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