HurricaneJosh Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 So I'm in Texas, doing BASTARD/Kestrel testing with Cory. His nephew's helping us in the outdoor lab, and we made some interesting findings today, which Cory will post about later. We have more testing/nerding to do tomorrow. But one interesting thing: I finally found out what happens when a Kestrel gets hit with a gust to 133 kt. Let's just say it ain't pretty. Fortunately we had some replacement parts on hand. All the while... There's that 90L lurking in the Caribbean. How funny it would be if a cyclone came a-callin' while I'm here in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 So I'm in Texas, doing BASTARD/Kestrel testing with Cory. His nephew's helping us in the outdoor lab, and we made some interesting findings today, which Cory will post about later. We have more testing/nerding to do tomorrow. But one interesting thing: I finally found out what happens when a Kestrel gets hit with a gust to 133 kt. Let's just say it ain't pretty. Fortunately we had some replacement parts on hand. All the while... There's that 90L lurking in the Caribbean. How funny it would be if a cyclone came a-callin' while I'm here in TX. Are you the reason we've been breaking record temperatures the past two days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Looked like the wave at least would make it into the GOM. Weenies took over yesterday thinking that development was imminent when most of the mildly favorable conditions were days away. Crazy as it sounds it has that Dolly like feel where it's just a wave until it gets near the YP/YC and then things get interesting. Don't get me wrong. It has nowhere near the organization or consensus of development Dolly had with her trek across the Caribbean, just the timing and potential future track. Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 @Josh: I'm ready to start archiving. Say when. (Check your inbox) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 If they came out with a track right now I'd guess they would put 90l near Corpus, low end 1 - \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 How far South of the border is safe as far as the Zetas and the such go? Would La Pesca be a go, or too dangerous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 How far South of the border is safe as far as the Zetas and the such go? Would La Pesca be a go, or too dangerous? Brownsville is dangerous The closer to the border, the more dangerous. La Pesca itself would be safe... the problem is the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Brownsville is dangerous The closer to the border, the more dangerous. La Pesca itself would be safe... the problem is the roads. You have a passport? Ever chased in Texas? Not saying 90L will landfall in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 You have a passport? Ever chased in Texas? Not saying 90L will landfall in Texas. Yes I do (more important, I have a visa) and no I haven't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Yes I do (more important, I have a visa) and no I haven't My brother used to teach English at a prep school in Garza Garcia. Never chased Texas? If you had enough notice, would you be willing to try. Me, wife, kids, house, if they don't chase me, I have to live vicariously through YouTube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 6z guidance. Still Matagorda Bay as a high end TS, low end cane - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 At this point, I think a more southerly track is preferred at this time. Most of the models that take the system significantly north don't develop the storm very much and keep it moving with the low level flow, which is more northerly than the deeper layer flow. For a chaser's standpoint, a more northerly track would likely mean a non-threat (aka a weak storm) while a more southerly track would imply a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 How cool is it that 90L will likey be a TX threat while Josh is here testing the BASTARD with Met Tech! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I sincerely hope Josh gets a Cat 1 or Cat 2 somewhere around Freeport or Matagorda. Not saying he will, but my lawn gets rain, he gets video, everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm going to start charging these local Houston guys for piggybacking my forecasts - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NJxLrIvgKk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Guessing at the forecast that is coming out. High end TS just S of Matagorda Bay. Possible cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Scott & Cory-- I just made a hotel reservation in Corpus for tomorrow night and Friday night. I figure Corpus is a good staging area-- we can drive up to Matagorda or down to BRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Scott & Cory-- I just made a hotel reservation in Corpus for tomorrow night and Friday night. I figure Corpus is a good staging area-- we can drive up to Matagorda or down to BRO. Awesome man! I'm so jealous. I would love to have a storm come towards my side of the gulf coast, then I could actually chase too. Enjoy the storm, looking forward to your report when you get back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Scott & Cory-- I just made a hotel reservation in Corpus for tomorrow night and Friday night. I figure Corpus is a good staging area-- we can drive up to Matagorda or down to BRO. where should ed lizard drop off the bud light with clamato? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 where should ed lizard drop off the bud light with clamato? Friday is a work day. CRP is too far to drive. I'm glad the lockout is ended and the guys are getting a 50 to 80 mph pre-season game in to shake off the rust and be ready for the regular season. I'd like to chase with Josh, but between my politics and my not being a health Nazi, he probably will never extend the invite. Its ok, I have YouTube. I have a job, a home, wife, kids, bills, I can't just jet off to Miami for the next Cat 5. Again, thank goodness for YouTube. Don't want tomato in my beer. Some of the relatives on my wife's side drink micheladas, beer with tomato juice and a lot of tabasco. I don't think beer should be spicy. I think Cheeznado's BRO to CRP high end TS/minimal hurricane forecast sounds about right. Highway 77 goes down to the Valley, not sure what the coast road is, but I'm sure Google knows. Below, me with Miller Lite surrounded by michelada drinkers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'll be taking notes from this thread, I hope to have my first chase this year. I want to target a Cat 1-2 from New Orleans over to the big bend of Florida even a GA/SC/ maybe Jacksonville Landfall anything out of that area is too far for me to make a trip out of it reasonably. Anything over a Cat 2 and I could find myself in way over my head for a first timer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Scott & Cory-- I just made a hotel reservation in Corpus for tomorrow night and Friday night. I figure Corpus is a good staging area-- we can drive up to Matagorda or down to BRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Sure Josh will fill you in. Have family down and wasn't planning on chasing if it wasn't for Josh already being in Texas, and what initially was appearing to be a borderline chase type of storm. Working out perfectly with you already being down and may sit this one out unless it goes all crazy. Stoked for y'all regardless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Despite Don's lameness last week, extending my stay in TX was cool because it allowed me to do some "recon" for future TX chases. I've chased on the Upper TX coast (Houston/Galveston region) and I've chased in the deep S (Brownsville/Port Isabel & Kenedy Co.)-- but I'd never really checked out the C TX coast. So, I ended my TX trip with a night in Port Lavaca and a driving tour of Matagorda Bay-- just to get the lay of the land. The map below shows where I drove and what towns I checked out. HISTORY Re: Matagorda Bay's hurricane history... * The last direct hit was Claudette 2003, which made landfall on Matagorda Island, just E of Port O'Connor, with winds of 80 kt. * The last major was the legendary Carla 1961, a very large and intense cyclone which really hammered the Bay. The center came ashore near Port O'Connor or a shade W of there, putting that town and Port Lavaca squarely in the right-front quad and intense inner core. The whole region was devastated, and Carla remains the benchmark hurricane for this region. * In the distant past, the great Indianola Hurricane of 1886 came ashore a bit further S with estimated winds of 135 kt. While Matagorda Bay probably wasn't in the RMW, the city of Indianola-- at that time an important port on the W shore of the Bay-- was permanently wiped out and never rebuilt. TOUR I stayed in Port Lavaca (green), which the biggest city on the Bay (pop. ~12K). It's a substantive town for this area, but it's seen better days-- it's rather shabby and rundown. I was there on a Saturday night and the town had very little pulse-- even in the historic downtown area, where Main St hits the water. It almost felt like a ghost town to me. From there, I did two tours. First I drove S: * Indianola (purple) is just marshlands with a small fishing village now. It's hard to believe a thriving port city was once here. A monument-- sort of like a gravestone-- marks the city's brief life: 1844 - 1886. * Port O'Connor (pop. ~1K) (orange) is an isolated hamlet at the W entrance to the Bay. An extremely flat grid of small, one-story houses and mobile homes, it has very few hotels, although I did find one decent-sized one whose rooms are on a second story, well above sea level. Then I drove E, around the Bay: * Point Comfort (pop. ~780) (red) is a village across Lavaca Bay from Port Lavaca, next to a giant refinery. There seemed to be no hotels and it did not strike me as a good chase destination. * Palacios (pop. ~5K) (yellow) is one of the more substantive cities in this region-- a little bigger and a little brighter and fresher than some of the other towns. But, like the others, it looks extremely vulnerable to me. (By the way, although the town's name is Spanish, it is correctly pronounced in the harshest gringo style: “Puh-LASH-us”. Ugh. ) * Matagorda (pop. ~700) (green) is fishing village near the E entrance to the Bay. Again, it looks exceedingly vulnerable to me. A great, fancy bridge connects the church-dotted town center to a long string of beach houses (many on stilts) on the barrier island-- all of it about 3 ft above sea level. IMPRESSIONS A few overall observations: * Elevation. I was really stricken by how low-lying all of the towns are: they're all right on the water and barely a few feet above sea level. Not only that, but the slope of the land is so gentle, you can drive miles inland and not gain much elevation. While I've come to expect this sort of extreme vulnerability in the LA bayous, I was surprised to see it firsthand in this part of TX. * Buildings. There's a general lack of big, sturdy, multistory, modern buildings in this region. Scott747 once said to me, "Any town in TX with the word 'Port' in its name is flimsy and rundown." Totally true-- not just of the "ports", but really of all the towns around Matagorda Bay. There just aren't a lot of options for riding out extremely high winds-- not to mention, there are very few places to safely park a car (i.e., elevated parking structures). My overall impression is that the Bay would be awesome for chasing Cat-1/2 hurricanes or ones that are smaller in size (i.e., Claudette), and very tough for stronger cyclones (i.e., Carla) or ones that are very large and surgey (i.e., Ike). I'd be cool with riding out a Cat 3 or even a 4 in a second-story hotel room in most of these towns, but the car is a problem-- where to put it. Given this, if a really large, intense hurricane were approaching the Bay, I would probably use Victoria (purple) or Bay City (red) as a staging area and leave the car there, and pay a local (or whomever) to drive me out to my chosen bayside destination to ride out the storm. That seems to be the best general plan. Anyhoo, who knows when I’ll need to actually enact any of this planning-- but thinking ahead is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Riding out a Cat 4 in any wooden constructed motel would be dangerous I think. I would only feel safe using a concrete building (An elevated Parking garage is the ideal place in my mind). Just giving my advice from an architecture standpoint. Glad you had a good time in Texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Josh should have switched to tornadoes this year (although chase-wise this year was about the equivalent of the 2010 hurricane season unless you like chasing in mountains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I have a solution to Josh's low elevation problem: the bonus is that it would get the BASTARD closer to the standard 10m elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Riding out a Cat 4 in any wooden constructed motel would be dangerous I think. I would only feel safe using a concrete building (An elevated Parking garage is the ideal place in my mind). Just giving my advice from an architecture standpoint. Glad you had a good time in Texas! Generally, I agree-- although it would also depend on the size and age of the structure. Some wood frame structures can be really solid if built properly. There were some brick and concrete structures in these towns-- and of course those would be my first picks. Josh should have switched to tornadoes this year (although chase-wise this year was about the equivalent of the 2010 hurricane season unless you like chasing in mountains). Nah, not me-- my heart is with tropical cyclones. That really is my passion and I am a diehard Tropical Dude through and through. (That having been said, I'd like to do a tornado chase at some point-- but only as a side diversion.) I have a solution to Josh's low elevation problem: the bonus is that it would get the BASTARD closer to the standard 10m elevation It's funny you bring up vehicles, because Scott747 and I had a discussion about exactly this topic today: going in on a chase vehicle together-- one that we co-own and keep stored in TX for Gulf/FL chases. Having such a vehicle would bring a variety of benefits, and it would pay for itself after a few chases. We're probably going to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 One thing that's become really important to me on chases: getting super-accurate air pressure readings. When Cory and I were in TX, I noticed that my Kestrel was off from his-- by as much as 1 mb or more. Cory checked his against his equipment at work, and it's accurate-- so mine must have been off. Since then, I've recalibrated it by visiting the KSMO METAR station at the Santa Monica Airport (34.0210N 118.4471W) and setting my instrument to match the latest METAR value. I can get to within ~90 yd of the actual station instrumentation, which I can actually see as I calibrate my instrument. One tricky thing is figuring out one's altitude-- which is critical to getting an accurate air pressure reading that's corrected to sea level. To get that, I've tested about five iPad apps over the last couple of days. I was unhappy with most of them, which showed wild and inexplicable fluctuations-- by as much as 60 ft or sometimes more-- in a fixed location. I finally found a really good one called Elevation Pro. Using GPS, it locates your current position in Google Maps and then gives you the USGS elevation for that location. You can also click anywhere on the map to get elevations for other locations. I tested it against a few places where I know the elevation: the beach, Badwater Basin in Death Valley, the KSMO METAR station, etc.-- and it seems very accurate. Yay! OK, where's the cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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