Ground Scouring Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I hate Shredderola Cuba this storm. If the center cannot reform over water, just let Isaac die and spare us further misery. There, I vented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 12z GFS is Mobile AL landfall looks like Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 12z GFS is Mobile AL landfall looks like Josh I've liked Mobile for 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Fly into Pensacola & you will be within a little over 2 hrs from Slidell, LA to Mexico Beach, FL via I-10 or Hwy 98. You may not be able to traverse some of the roads if the storm gets to Cat.2 as they may start contra flow for evacuations. Most of this area closes bridge beach access when winds get to about 40 mph. Tons of hotels on Pcola beach, The Island in FWB, Destin, & PCB. Navarre is the coastal town in Santa Rosa County. No hotels on the beach there but, you could probably get a killer condo. (I would assume there is going to be a rash of cancellations) I lived in FWB for 6 years & still keep a boat there I visit the area 5-6X a year. Let me know if you need any info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 If I have to fly, I prefer Southwest, and not just for the fares. They have non-stops from Burbank to both NOLA and Panama City. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Decisions decisions for Josh .. EURO went east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Fly into Pensacola & you will be within a little over 2 hrs from Slidell, LA to Mexico Beach, FL via I-10 or Hwy 98. You may not be able to traverse some of the roads if the storm gets to Cat.2 as they may start contra flow for evacuations. Most of this area closes bridge beach access when winds get to about 40 mph. Tons of hotels on Pcola beach, The Island in FWB, Destin, & PCB. Navarre is the coastal town in Santa Rosa County. No hotels on the beach there but, you could probably get a killer condo. (I would assume there is going to be a rash of cancellations) I lived in FWB for 6 years & still keep a boat there I visit the area 5-6X a year. Let me know if you need any info. Thanks for the info! As a rule, I avoid flying into coastal airports-- I fly into an inland airport and then drive. It's safer this way-- removes one potential land mine: flight cancellations. If I go, I'll fly into Atlanta tomorrow afternoon-- which I believe will be early enough to get down there. A condo may be a good option in places that don't have hotels. Anyhoo, thanks very much for the info-- always good to get the local knowledge. Decisions decisions for Josh .. EURO went east It's actually not a problem. The models are fairly well-clustered Re: landfall in a relatively small area (MS to FL Panhandle). As long as I know it's that general area, that's fine for now. The model shifts within that area are just static-- I doesn't affect what airport I fly into. What I do feel sure about now is that the Keys scenario is going to bust-- as I had suspected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Thanks for the info! As a rule, I avoid flying into coastal airports-- I fly into an inland airport and then drive. It's safer this way-- removes one potential land mine: flights cancellations. If I go, I'll fly into Atlanta tomorrow afternoon-- which I believe will be early enough to get down there. A condo may be a good option in places that don't have hotels. Anyhoo, thanks very much for the info-- always good to get the local knowledge. It's actually not a problem. The models are fairly well-clustered Re: landfall in a relatively small area (MS to FL Panhandle). As long as I know it's that general area, that's fine for now. The model shifts within that area are just static-- I doesn't affect what airport I fly into. What I do feel sure about now is that the Keys scenario is going to bust-- as I had suspected. Atlanta welcomes you. It sucks that a storm will be coming within driving distance of my location and I will not be able to chase it. I'll catch the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 4pm track shifts slightly E Inlet Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 You can just go ahead and pull the trigger anytime Josh. You know you're going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 You can just go ahead and pull the trigger anytime Josh. You know you're going Ha ha ha, you know me too well. Yep, I'm close to pulling the trigger-- in fact, I already have a flight and strategically positioned hotel reservattions. It's looking like a go. I'm very excited to be chasing again in the USA agent all these foreign chases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I give anything to be in Key West right now. Perfect starter storm for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connor McCrorey Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I give anything to be in Key West right now. Perfect starter storm for me. Irene was a pretty sweet starter storm (I don't count Edouard). The location made things difficult, I already hate the Outer Banks after one chase there. But it was great to get a feel for 'cane chasing with one that was a solid hurricane, but nothing extreme. Now I feel more ready for whatever Isaac decides to toss this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Irene was a pretty sweet starter storm (I don't count Edouard). The location made things difficult, I already hate the Outer Banks after one chase there. But it was great to get a feel for 'cane chasing with one that was a solid hurricane, but nothing extreme. Now I feel more ready for whatever Isaac decides to toss this way Totally agreed with you about E NC. It's just not good chase turf-- and, to add to that, the area rarely gets really good, really tropical hurricanes. Irene was a good example-- I was really not happy with that one. It was so blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connor McCrorey Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Totally agreed with you about E NC. It's just not good chase turf-- and, to add to that, the area rarely gets really good, really tropical hurricanes. Irene was a good example-- I was really not happy with that one. It was so blah. Yeah, we were fortunate enough that we positioned near Beaufort, so we at least got to experience some 100+ mph winds at times. That was the only area, to my knowledge, that even recorded any winds that high. I was pretty disappointed Irene didn't manage to strengthen more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Good luck Josh... hopefully by Monday you will have a firm place to chase from now that teh 18z GFS has went west into LA/MS border area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 GFS says you'll be in MSY while this is stalled out and causing major flooding. The good news I have for Josh is that the LLC is very much intact and already looks to be in the re-organizational process. Chances of this getting into the GOM with perfect UL winds and a decent inner core are steadily increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Yeah, we were fortunate enough that we positioned near Beaufort, so we at least got to experience some 100+ mph winds at times. That was the only area, to my knowledge, that even recorded any winds that high. I was pretty disappointed Irene didn't manage to strengthen more though. Honestly, I really don't think Beaufort or my location (to the E, in Marshallberg-- also in that map's orange zone) had winds anywhere near 100 mph. I'd say we had winds around 50 kt with gusts to minimal hurricane force-- that would be my best guess. That storm really lacked punch-- it was unraveling, high-latitude crap. Just wait until you're in a real hurricane-- you'll be like, "Oh, wow! Totally different!" You get in the core of even a strengthening Cat 2, and it has real bite-- a real edge to it. Maybe you'll get a taste of that soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 GFS says you'll be in MSY while this is stalled out and causing major flooding. The good news I have for Josh is that the LLC is very much intact and already looks to be in the re-organizational process. Chances of this getting into the GOM with perfect UL winds and a decent inner core are steadily increasing Hey, thanks, man. Yeah, I'm definitely getting some tingles at the idea of a solid Gulf cyclone. It's been a while... Good luck Josh... hopefully by Monday you will have a firm place to chase from now that teh 18z GFS has went west into LA/MS border area Hey, thanks, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 By the way... Cory has re-engineered the BASTARD. I received the new-and-improved one (2.0) this week, and you can see it here. So, what's improved? The mast is much taller. Now, actually, Cory didn't make it quite this tall-- but I integrated a section of the original version (1.0) into the new one, so what you see here is an augmented version-- very tall! Cory and I decided that I'll take it out on some desert roads this weekend-- to see if I can go sufficient speeds without it falling off. We're honestly not sure. No, it's still not 10 m, but this much taller mast should really help me sample more representative winds than I was able to do with the previous BASTARD 1.0. That looks huge on that car. I do hope you get to test it out before sending it out into Isaac. I'm a little nervous since the horizontal force testing on the 36" mast was getting within 5 pounds of the limit predicted by the equation. We may be pushing it with the 42" but if it holds up in a desert road test drive, go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 That looks huge on that car. I do hope you get to test it out before sending it out into Isaac. I'm a little nervous since the horizontal force testing on the 36" mast was getting within 5 pounds of the limit predicted by the equation. We may be pushing it with the 42" but if it holds up in a desert road test drive, go for it. It's probably pushing it to try and make it work. I'll probably chop it down to the intended size. IT was just tempting, since I have the pieces here to make it even longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 The new wider base with the redneck paint job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 You're an artist as well as an engineer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Convection is increasing over the LLC, which is moving near 310° and is just north of the NHC track...by the time it turns WNW, it will be bound for the sweet spot in terms of Gulf OHC and maximum time over the Gulf. Good luck. I think the trends are auspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Honestly, I really don't think Beaufort or my location (to the E, in Marshallberg-- also in that map's orange zone) had winds anywhere near 100 mph. I'd say we had winds around 50 kt with gusts to minimal hurricane force-- that would be my best guess. That storm really lacked punch-- it was unraveling, high-latitude crap. Just wait until you're in a real hurricane-- you'll be like, "Oh, wow! Totally different!" You get in the core of even a strengthening Cat 2, and it has real bite-- a real edge to it. Maybe you'll get a taste of that soon. Yeah my mom is still in Beaufort. She slept through most of it and was so unimpressed she put her bird feeders back out during the eye. Granted when you've lived on the NC coast for 60 years you have seen more hurricanes than most. Not all NC hurricanes are unraveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yeah my mom is still in Beaufort. She slept through most of it and was so unimpressed she put her bird feeders back out during the eye. Granted when you've lived on the NC coast for 60 years you have seen more hurricanes than most. Not all NC hurricanes are unraveling. Sorry, I didn't mean to diss NC 'canes-- there are certainly some important exceptions, like Hazel 1954 (although there are indications that, despite its ferocity, it was not 100% tropical when it raked NC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Have fun man, I wish I could go. My friend has a place in Mobile but, school starts this week. Dang it, why couldn't it come on a weekend or a week earlier. haha. Someday i'll get to chase one of the bad boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Have fun man, I wish I could go. My friend has a place in Mobile but, school starts this week. Dang it, why couldn't it come on a weekend or a week earlier. haha. Someday i'll get to chase one of the bad boys. Awwww, I remember being in school and feeling that way. This is one of the advantages of being an adult, I guess-- the freedom. Well, don't worry-- I'm sure you'll chase soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anyhoo, I'm close to pulling the trigger. In fact, I've made most of the arrangements at this point. I literally just need to fire the gun. I'll be leaving L.A. tomorrow morning-- that's the plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Awwww, I remember being in school and feeling that way. This is one of the advantages of being an adult, I guess-- the freedom. Well, don't worry-- I'm sure you'll chase soon enough. Ya hopefully next year. I'll only have a few classes to finish up. Will then just need a good storm. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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