Ground Scouring Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Wow-- that looks nothing like 24 hr ago. Hmmm. I might also add that the 0300Z NHC track at 12 hours shows very little land interaction after Isaac skirts Shredderola...so the prospect that it will retain its tight inner core as it crosses and moves off extreme E Cuba is probable, thereby increasing the potential for a strong hurricane in the SE Gulf. Given the slow movement of the TC, it will have more time over the next six hours to reach hurricane intensity before spending a very brief hiatus over SW Shredderola...in the least mountainous part (Google Earth says the NHC track goes over an area just a few hundred feet above sea level in pockets, not everywhere). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 I might also add that the 0300Z NHC track at 12 hours shows very little land interaction after Isaac skirts Shredderola...so the prospect that it will retain its tight inner core as it crosses and moves off extreme E Cuba is probable, thereby increasing the potential for a strong hurricane in the SE Gulf. Given the slow movement of the TC, it will have more time over the next six hours to reach hurricane intensity before spending a very brief hiatus over SW Shredderola...in the least mountainous part (Google Earth says the NHC track goes over an area just a few hundred feet above sea level in pockets, not everywhere). Yeah, it's looking quite a bit more interesting, all of a sudden, since it might not get totally destroyed by the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Yeah, it's looking quite a bit more interesting, all of a sudden, since it might not get totally destroyed by the Greater Antilles. Will be interesting to see what the 00z GFS says... NHC favored GFS over 18z UKIE and 12z EC in their 11 pm disco re trough placement in FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 00Z GFS is rolling out...the trough is less progressive and allows Isaac to hit Islamorada, FL, by 2100Z Sunday afternoon...by 54 hours the system appears farther east in the Gulf than at 18Z and looks bound for a landfall closer to Apalachicola based upon the synoptic set-up. By the way, I see Phil lurking...I have been waiting all day for his analysis tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 0z GFS Pensacola/Panama City Very slow as it's landfalling Latest NHC track was right over Destin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 B.A.S.T.A.R.D. Best Automated System To Acquire and Report Data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 0z GFS Pensacola/Panama City Very slow as it's landfalling Latest NHC track was right over Destin Cool. I'm starting to research Panhandle hotels-- and also into AL/MS. B.A.S.T.A.R.D. Best Automated System To Acquire and Report Data Do you like the way the new one looks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 So Phil these ahe High pressure heights(?) and the info is telling the it's alittle stronger than anticipated correct?I am assuming that but are these that far off to affect model output?Then if it just got sampled yesterday and these are enough to matter why the delineation so quickly from 24hrs ago? Thanks Phil so it was possibily enough to kick it W some,interesting. As WxSouth mentioned, the dropsondes only give out values every 10m... so as long as the model is within +/- 10m its doing pretty well. In this case, the GFS is on the money. So, then, the further-W solution seen in the 18Z might actually be reality-based? Curious now to see the 00Z. (Well... Of course I was already curious to see it...) I think both the 18z and 0z are reasonable solution. In addition, both solutions put the storm over very little land, with the largest impact being the next 12 hours. One thing that also needs to be mentioned is that the GFS continues to be way too fast. Unless the storm accelerates in the next 2 hours, it will be south of the 06z point by the 00z gfs but some margin. This slower initial track is important, because the weakness in the ridge is currently at its weakest. If the storm is further south when it builds back in, it could mean a more westward track in the 24-72 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 I think both the 18z and 0z are reasonable solution. In addition, both solutions put the storm over very little land, with the largest impact being the next 12 hours. One thing that also needs to be mentioned is that the GFS continues to be way too fast. Unless the storm accelerates in the next 2 hours, it will be south of the 06z point by the 00z gfs but some margin. This slower initial track is important, because the weakness in the ridge is currently at its weakest. If the storm is further south when it builds back in, it could mean a more westward track in the 24-72 hour period. Thanks, Phil. So, bottom line: do you expect a decent (Cat-2+) Panhandle landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The track looks pretty favorable for catching it if worry more about it slowing and weakening in the end but I suppose that's always a concern up in that area. At least the weakening part.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Thanks, Phil. So, bottom line: do you expect a decent (Cat-2+) Panhandle landfall? Yep... working on a map right now, so you will see soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 The track looks pretty favorable for catching it if worry more about it slowing and weakening in the end but I suppose that's always a concern up in that area. At least the weakening part.. The weakening I just expect. But the slowing would be weird for a Panhandle landfall. It's not climatologically normal-- cyclones hitting the Panhandle are usually accelerating-- sometimes very rapidly-- so I'm going to take this run as noise for now. Yep... working on a map right now, so you will see soon enough Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Just curious. Fly to a big city and rent a car, or a smaller city via the local big airline affilated puddle jumper airlines? Because my late father was retired from American, when my grandmother died, I caught an American Eagle puddle jumper from Intercontinetal to DFW to connect to a flight to Boston. Morning of the day Hurricane Claudette made landfall,. Cloudy, breezy, some rain, but not turbulent, and halfway from IAH to DFW completely broke into blue skies. Closest I'll ever come to being a hurricane hunter. Except maybe the time I had a Heinken high over Texas on a G-IV. BTW, not as bad as I thought. You could get fairly close to the ocean. Assuming it is Santa Rosa County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Just curious. Fly to a big city and rent a car, or a smaller city via the local big airline affilated puddle jumper airlines? Always big city, rent car. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The weakening I just expect. But the slowing would be weird for a Panhandle landfall. It's not climatologically normal-- cyclones hitting the Panhandle are usually accelerating-- sometimes very rapidly-- so I'm going to take this run as noise for now. I dunno.. the pattern supports it heavily. This is not your being yanked heavily by a trough like is the case of most speedy sys in the area. It might end up a little faster but I wouldn't bet on it. Not sure how much it'll matter... I haven't really taken a stab at intensity as I kinda like NHC for now and well it would just be a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 pretty cool how the latest track has isaac weaving through the islands and avoiding land. The florida keys better be preparing for a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 latest GEM run puts a big hurt on New Orleans, not that I trust it that much, but still it is what is shows. I would guess that it will be a outlier, but I have seen on the various threads from some people that a west ward track while unlikely is still plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 I dunno.. the pattern supports it heavily. This is not your being yanked heavily by a trough like is the case of most speedy sys in the area. It might end up a little faster but I wouldn't bet on it. Not sure how much it'll matter... I haven't really taken a stab at intensity as I kinda like NHC for now and well it would just be a guess. Basically agreed on both fronts. Re: the motion... I'm not a climo slave, but I'd just like to see that stall scenario play out another couple of runs before worrying about it. Re: the intensity forecast... My feeling these days is that it is a complete, 100% crap shoot. There is essentially zero skill predicting it 3 days out. So my feeling is, if they show a hurricane in the Gulf, and there are no obviously negative factors, I just have to go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 To support your point, Ian: Elena 1985 was a NE-Gulf cyclone that did stall out and move very erratically. Easy 1950 was another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Basically agreed on both fronts. Re: the motion... I'm not a climo slave, but I'd just like to see that stall scenario play out another couple of runs before worrying about it. Re: the intensity forecast... My feeling these days is that it is a complete, 100% crap shoot. There is essentially zero skill predicting it 3 days out. So my feeling is, if they show a hurricane in the Gulf, and there are no obviously negative factors, I just have to go for it. Yeah Im not sure it's a game changer. It is kinda good it won't have to live up to a former cat 4 self or something. On other hands the calmer environ might be good. It will be interesting to watch. I've been researching tornadoes in Gulf systems this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 To support your point, Ian: Elena 1985 was a NE-Gulf cyclone that did stall out and move very erratically. Easy 1950 was another. I wouldn't necessarily expect it to truly stall over water.. that seems like it might come further along if at all. I'd actually probably lean toward it not stalling but that's getting way out into range. But I thought the idea of an extra dry CONUS plus some issues you often see in that part of the GOM are at least a consideration, which I'm sure you're making -- random banter (wrong thread?), not suggestions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Basically agreed on both fronts. Re: the motion... I'm not a climo slave, but I'd just like to see that stall scenario play out another couple of runs before worrying about it. Re: the intensity forecast... My feeling these days is that it is a complete, 100% crap shoot. There is essentially zero skill predicting it 3 days out. So my feeling is, if they show a hurricane in the Gulf, and there are no obviously negative factors, I just have to go for it. If it looks like Isaac is a go for a U.S. Hurricane landfall, I'd say go for it. It can't be any worse than Don....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm slowly committing to a Panhandle Plan. I'm not sold on the Keys potential-- nor am I really sold on the idea of a strong Panhandle landfall. But as I've said many times, I get such delight out of hurricanes of all categories-- and also, I've not chased on the FL Panhandle (or AL or MS) before, so it would be something new and interesting, even if it is only an 80-kt cyclone. And as much as I adore Mexico more than anywhere on earth when it comes to cyclones, the idea of chasing something in the USA for a change seems rather cozy and comfortable to me-- like the chaser's version of a warm bowl of mac-and-cheese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Forget the panhandle, head to Seoul, South Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 4am track Big Pine Key El Centro Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 4am track Big Pine Key El Centro Beach I'm feeling good about the Panhandle setup. The 80 kt is well before landfall, suggesting they're expecting it to perhaps be stronger. Hey, I'll take a strengthening Cat 2 in Fort Walton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Forget the panhandle, head to Seoul, South Korea. I should spend $2,000 on a 16-hour flight so I can get an unraveling Cat 1 in E Asia? C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Convection is exploding on the southern side of the center, it is forming on the eastern side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I should spend $2,000 on a 16-hour flight so I can get an unraveling Cat 1 in E Asia? C'mon. Yeah, Okinawa probably about to take a huge hit in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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