HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Kinda getting bored with this one. If it's just going to be a pathetic, Fay-style land-crawler, I wish swift death upon it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Kinda getting bored with this one. If i's just going to be a pathetic, Fay-style land-crawler, I wish swift death upon it. Everything near SE FL since 1992 has been a dud, frankly. (I am excepting Frances and Jeanne 2004, which struck north of the Miami metro, and Wilma 2005, which came from the west and mostly produced Cat.-1 winds in SE FL.) I would give you 1926 Miami or 1928 Okeechobee anytime. Most big systems here tend to cross the Atlantic north, not south, of the Greater Antilles--think the 1920s hurricanes, 1947 Fort Lauderdale, 1965 Betsy, 1992 Andrew, et cetera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Everything near SE FL since 1992 has been a dud, frankly. (I am excepting Frances and Jeanne 2004, which struck north of the Miami metro, and Wilma 2005, which came from the west and mostly produced Cat.-1 winds in SE FL.) I would give you 1926 Miami or 1928 Okeechobee anytime. Yeah, agreed. I would gladly take a King or a Cleo, but that kind of rapid bomb-out after land passage is kind of hard to anticipate. I just wish the modeling would really pick a W or E solution-- W well into the Gulf or E into the FL Straits/Bahamas as quickly as possible. These hints of a messy, down-the-middle solution are just really annoying. I forgot how much I just really passionately hate this part of the basin-- this elongated triangle created by Cuba, Shredderola, and FL. It's just complicated and stupid every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Most big systems here tend to cross the Atlantic north, not south, of the Greater Antilles--think the 1920s hurricanes, 1947 Fort Lauderdale, 1965 Betsy, 1992 Andrew, et cetera. Of course-- but there have been some really awesome exceptions, like King 1950 and Cleo 1964. Anyhoo, I am not rooting for a SE FL solution-- I never wanted that out of this. I wanted it to pass S of these stupid islands and yield a clean Gulf/Panhandle solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Yeah, agreed. I would gladly take a King or a Cleo, but that kind of rapid bomb-out after land passage is kind of hard to anticipate. I just wish the modeling would really pick a W or E solution-- W well into the Gulf or E into the FL Straits/Bahamas as quickly as possible. These hints of a messy, down-the-middle solution are just really annoying. I forgot how much I just really passionately hate this part of the basin-- this elongated triangle created by Cuba, Shredderola, and FL. It's just complicated and stupid every time. Yeah I absolutely hate that area. So much drama. Every time. It's annoying that so many storms in the past decade (Ernesto 06, Gustav/Ike 08, Dennis 05, etc.) have been through this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Yeah I absolutely hate that area. So much drama. Every time. It's annoying that so many storms in the past decade (Ernesto 06, Gustav/Ike 08, Dennis 05, etc.) have been through this region. Yep. Totally. And tracking a cyclone through this region is like a 48-hr dentist visit-- only he's drilling without Novocaine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 New GFS is Mobile-ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 New GFS is Mobile-ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 No offense Josh but I really don't want to see you here for this occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 No offense Josh but I really don't want to see you here for this occasion. Well, that's just hurtful. Sure you wanna see me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Kinda getting bored with this one. If it's just going to be a pathetic, Fay-style land-crawler, I wish swift death upon it. I think thats a low probability event given the recent modeling. Fay was much more poorly organized than Isaac at this point. It is interesting that the ECMWF insists that little to no weakening will take place as the system skirts Hispaniola and Cuba. The GFS is even suggesting now that the system avoids the vast majority of land as it actually gets far enough away from Cuba, then turns wnw only clipping the FL coastline. If this storm is still a moderate to strong Tropical Storm when it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, I'm thinking Cat 2 minimum given a 48 hour window over the GOM. I'll post some more detailed thoughts later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 I think thats a low probability event given the recent modeling. Fay was much more poorly organized than Isaac at this point. Is is interesting that the ECMWF insists that little to no weakening will take place as the system skirts Hispaniola and Cuba. The GFS is even suggesting now that the system avoids the vast majority of land as it actually gets far enough away from Cuba, then turns wnw only clipping the FL coastline. If this storm is still a moderate to strong Tropical Storm when it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, I'm thinking Cat 2 minimum given a 48 hour window over the GOM. I'll post some more detailed thoughts later tonight. Thanks. I'm feeling a little better with the 18Z GFS. Also, Adam talked be back from the ledge, too-- via text. Did you chase Ivan, Josh? The place where we stay in Jan/Feb is the Phoenix X condo building, on the beach, in AL. Perdido Beach Blvd. It's actually about 5 feet from the FL state line. The famous FloraBama nightclub is right next door, on the FL side. Kenny Chesney's "Coastal" mentions the FloraBama. Ivan left the area a total wreck, of course. Then there was the oil spill, but despite my best efforts I could not find a single tar ball on the beach in Jan of 2011. I love it there. Jimmy Buffet's sister, Lulu, also has a nightclub/restaurant a couple miles from there. I did not chase any 'canes in 2004-- was stuck in Europe. Grrrr. I'd be excited to chase in that area-- always been curious about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Kinda getting bored with this one. If it's just going to be a pathetic, Fay-style land-crawler, I wish swift death upon it. Fay = 22" in my neighborhood. https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.101894349822412.4166.100000055419653&type=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Fay = 22" in my neighborhood. https://www.facebook...55419653&type=3 Yikes! Just to be clear, I'm not dissing it from an impact standpoint-- I totally respect that it had impact. I just found it very frustrating as a cyclone and a fake chase subject. After days and days, I felt like a sucker-- angry and defeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Yep. Totally. And tracking a cyclone through this region is like a 48-hr dentist visit-- only he's drilling without Novocaine. Yes only how about a 96 hour root canal where "we are always getting there but not quite done yet, or this is a little tricky it is going to take a little while longer"....the disorganized structure with occasional convective flare up, getting vertically stacked just in time to run into Hait, the trek near Cuber, and finally the FL penninsula is in the way again, BUT some time down the road "it might" blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Yes only how about a 96 hour root canal where "we are always getting there but not quite done yet, or this is a little tricky it is going to take a little while longer"....the disorganized structure with occasional convective flare up, getting vertically stacked just in time to run into Hait, the trek near Cuber, and finally the FL penninsula is in the way again, BUT some time down the road "it might" blow up. Yep. Bingo. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 For the record, I totally do not want to see it hit New Orleans-- would absolutely hate that-- I'm just excited by some of the further-W solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Interesting how the Euro is stronger than both of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I hate how they use 900 mb wind speed, which totally makes it look stronger than it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I hate how they use 900 mb wind speed, which totally makes it look stronger than it actually is. Agreed. Wait what were you implying in the WC thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 If anything that's got to be unsettling for NO Emergency managers, the angle of approach on the HWRF being worse case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 By the way... Cory has re-engineered the BASTARD. I received the new-and-improved one (2.0) this week, and you can see it here. So, what's improved? The mast is much taller. Now, actually, Cory didn't make it quite this tall-- but I integrated a section of the original version (1.0) into the new one, so what you see here is an augmented version-- very tall! Cory and I decided that I'll take it out on some desert roads this weekend-- to see if I can go sufficient speeds without it falling off. We're honestly not sure. No, it's still not 10 m, but this much taller mast should really help me sample more representative winds than I was able to do with the previous BASTARD 1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 What does BASTARD stand for? Also, looks very promising as long as you park it in an open area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 AMSUB analysis looks *hot*...and actually shows the center a bit farther south, with a tight core forming that is less vulnerable to downslope conditions from Shredderola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Josh, do you do night time hurricane intercepts? Isaac would make landfall prob around midnight or so if the new NHC path was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Josh, do you do night time hurricane intercepts? Isaac would make landfall prob around midnight or so if the new NHC path was right I'm pretty sure he only does night intercepts. Not intentionally of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 What does BASTARD stand for? Also, looks very promising as long as you park it in an open area. Oh, of course. Open exposure is critical. P.S. Honestly, I forgot what the acronym stands for. Cory can remind us. AMSUB analysis looks *hot*...and actually shows the center a bit farther south, with a tight core forming that is less vulnerable to downslope conditions from Shredderola. Wow-- that looks nothing like 24 hr ago. Hmmm. Josh, do you do night time hurricane intercepts? Isaac would make landfall prob around midnight or so if the new NHC path was right No one chooses or knows in advance whether the chase will be at nighttime or not. You usually don't know until after you've committed. I feel like you've followed my chases before... But, anyway, my portfolio is half-and-half: http://icyclone.com/chases/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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