Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Old news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Old news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 0z Euro is further E at hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Still further E at hr 144. S of Panama City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 As nice as that would be, it won't be feasible. If I go, it will be part of a UAH Severe/Radar group deployment. Yeah I kinda thought it might be regarding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Taiwan would be the place to be right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Josh, if it ever became apparent that Key West was going to take an eyewall hit would you go there and then drive N for a second interception? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connor McCrorey Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Every mile the track forecast moves west increases the chance that I'll be there. S FL would have been difficult to pull of from OK, but the Gulf Coast will be much more manageable. I expect Isaac to be very chaseable as hurricanes go. Moving fairly perpendicular to the coast upon landfall into an area with lots of tourism (good structures/shelter), quite possibly strengthening all the way until landfall, something for which northern Gulf Coast hurricanes aren't exactly well known. Hopefully Isaac just cooperates with the given conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Every mile the track forecast moves west increases the chance that I'll be there. S FL would have been difficult to pull of from OK, but the Gulf Coast will be much more manageable. I expect Isaac to be very chaseable as hurricanes go. Moving fairly perpendicular to the coast upon landfall into an area with lots of tourism (good structures/shelter), quite possibly strengthening all the way until landfall, something for which northern Gulf Coast hurricanes aren't exactly well known. Hopefully Isaac just cooperates with the given conditions. I would caution against any sort of thought that there is an increased chance of Isaac strengthening all the way to landfall. With the current drought over much of the US and the recent cooler/drier spell across the eastern US, I would think that the potential for dry, continental air getting drawn into Issac is higher than even a typical Gulf Coast landfall scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Josh, if it ever became apparent that Key West was going to take an eyewall hit would you go there and then drive N for a second interception? For this one, probably not, as it doesn't look like it'll be too strong over the Keys. I'd rather focus energy on the main landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Like Tony says, I would caution against any assumptions Re: strengthening up to landfall. Contrary to common mythology, hurricanes can and do strengthen up to landfall on the N Gulf Coast, but that tends to be the exception when it comes to majors. Stepping back... Isaac is looking a bit more interesting today. I do like the W shift-- it makes the setup cleaner and less complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 While dry air entrainment is possible, this system will not be feeling the effects of a trough to its west (increasing shear) , which tends to make more north Gulf systems susceptible to the drier continental air. Btw Josh, I tried to send you a pm but you are very popular an your inbox is full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 While dry air entrainment is possible, this system will not be feeling the effects of a trough to its west (increasing shear) , which tends to make more north Gulf systems susceptible to the drier continental air. Btw Josh, I tried to send you a pm but you are very popular an your inbox is full. This is a good point, and could be huge in the long run if this does make it to the central Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 should have gone for this bad boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 should have gone for this bad boy Yeah nice Cat 4 coming right on in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 should have gone for this bad boy I considered it, actually. Yeah nice Cat 4 coming right on in... The JTWC's new warning has it at 110 kt-- a strong Cat 3. Either way, a really awesome, red-meat cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connor McCrorey Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 While dry air entrainment is possible, this system will not be feeling the effects of a trough to its west (increasing shear) , which tends to make more north Gulf systems susceptible to the drier continental air. This is my point. I'm certainly not "assuming" Isaac will be strengthening until landfall, but that's what I'm willing to forecast right now, as foolish as it often is to issue forecasts so far in advance. Isaac shouldn't feel the effects of a nearby trough the way that many N Gulf Coast hurricanes do, and I expect to be conditions to be fairly conducive for steady strengthening for most of Isaac's time over the Gulf. That said, Josh pointed out that hurricanes strengthening until landfall are the exception when it comes to majors, and that is very accurate. I don't expect Isaac to be a major though. I wouldn't rule out Cat 3 intensity at landfall if Hispanola isn't too rough on Isaac, but right now I'm leaning towards an intensifying high-end Cat 2 from Gulfport to Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 0z GFS Marathon Pensacola/Panama City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 I wouldn't rule out Cat 3 intensity at landfall if Hispanola isn't too rough on Isaac, but right now I'm leaning towards an intensifying high-end Cat 2 from Gulfport to Pensacola. That's kind of what I'm thinking. For some reason, this one isn't screaming "Epic, Career-Changing Chase" to me-- but rather, "Another N-Gulf Cat 2". That having been said, a hurricane is a hurricane. I love 'em all, and I would enjoy even that. Hey, I got a lot of thrills out of that Cat 1 (possible Cat 2) a couple of weeks ago. 0z GFS Marathon Pensacola/Panama City So, 24 hr later, we're still talking about the FL Panhandle. Consistency is cool, I guess. Can't wait to see the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Euro through 48 hrs is further N and E coming off Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Hr 120 heading towards Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Hr 120 heading towards Pensacola. Looks like LF is somewhere between Mobile and Pensacola late Tuesday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 HPC: ...ISAAC EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY NEXT FRIDAY... THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ARE NORTH OF WHAT IS NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS FORCES ENERGY TO POOL DOWNSTREAM, ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A WARM CORE RIDGE EXPECTED TO WAVER IN POSITION AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE GENERAL IDEAS. THE MODEL CHOICE THIS PERIOD WAS PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED BY THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) FORECAST FOR ISAAC, WHICH RESEMBLED A 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WAS USED THEREAFTER TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL FROM THURSDAY AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION HAD TO BE THROWN OUT BY DEFAULT. THIS LED TO REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE EARLY MORNING PRESSURES. TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC ====================== THE 06Z GFS RECURVES THE SYSTEM QUICKER THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY. THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND DROPS ENERGY FROM THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ISAAC, CLOSING OFF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS TEXAS BY NEXT FRIDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THE COL IN THE STEERING PATTERN SO FAR SOUTH THAT ISAAC WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, INITIALLY LURED BY A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY (SIMILAR TO DEBBY IN LATE JUNE BUT FARTHER TO THE WEST). HEAVY CORE RAINFALL WITH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 8-9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA/THE FLORIDA KEYS/THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING PER THE 09Z NHC TRACK, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH BY NEXT FRIDAY NEAR ITS TRACK, ITS DRAPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND WITHIN ITS MAIN INFLOW BAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON ITS EASTERN SIDE. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND WHERE ITS MAIN INFLOW BAND SETS UP AND PIVOTS, WHICH COULD BE AS FAR EAST AS GEORGIA. THE CURRENT SIZE AND FORECAST TRACK FOR ISAAC RESEMBLE HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005. CENTRAL GEORGIA REMAINS IN AN EXCEPTIONAL, LONG-DURATION DROUGHT SO THEY COULD USE THE RAINFALL. NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WERE SATURATED FROM BERYL AND DEBBY AS WELL AS SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, SO THE RAIN WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN THAT AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Good news/bad news short term, vis imagery and recon does suggest this will catch the Southern peninsula of Haiti, but I think it misses the worst of Haiti, and with improved recon reports, and sweet looking outflow developing, may be near a minimal cane passing Haiti, and if it doesn't hit too much of Florida, should be entering the Gulf. and if it doesn't get too much of Cuba, should be a near hurricane strength entering the Gulf. 6Z GFS looks to keep it too close to the Florida peninsula for max strengthening on the way to the Panhandle. Edit for horribly constructed sentence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 If you do end up in Pensacola, you MUST eat at McGuire's! Trust me. http://www.mcguiresirishpub.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 12 GFS has a decent shift. Upper Keys/Cutler Bay *edit* Moves across and out back into the Gulf around Naples/Cape Coral Just offshore Tampa hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 End up near Apalachicola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 At this point, the situation is increasingly becoming a war between SE FL (increasingly the upper Keys/Miami metro) and the FL Big Bend near Apalachicola-Panama City. Given the fact that the models have only recently picked up the trough split over the Midwest, I think further east shifts through 00Z tonight by days 3-5 look likely. The question then becomes whether 1) Shredderola and a large, ill-defined center would counteract the 72 hours of warm water/favorable anticyclonic winds over the Bahamas before SE FL or 2) the system would be just as good or better in SE FL...as a strengthening system coming from the SE...rather than in the Big Bend...where climatology shows systems recurving from the S tend to have more interaction with the cooler shelf waters and might not transfer winds to the surface efficiently. Ugh, choices, choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Illustrate what I was talking about in the email. Just in case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Small adjust to the E at 5. Near Key West Inlet Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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