Uncle Bobby Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah, those big, solid chain hotels are good for riding out cyclones in exposed places, so that could be an option. Thanks for checking! If she's not cool with it, I totally understand. Honestly, I wouldn't be! You're welcome! I got her phone # and email addy from another cousin and left voicemail and an email. Awaiting a reply. Of course, given all the elements of the whole scenario, a chase along the Gulf Coast would be a whole lot more interesting. Just stay away from Orange Beach AL, please. I and family spend every January there, LOL. Yeah, it won't be any surprise at all if she's not cool with it, even though she's one of these people you never ever see without a smile on her face. We'll see. I tried to explain the situation to her as best as possible, and explained how this is a no-pressure suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I think there is validity to this. Weaker storms fare better than stronger storms with issues like Hispaniola. A study of the effects of passage over Luzon by WPAC storms in fact did find that weaker less organized storms were affected less by the passage than the strong very organized ones. At the time is was attributed to the fact that the main inflow and strong circulation were in the lower levels and hence easily disrupted by the terrain than the looser storms which tended to still have a fairly strong mid level core and inflow. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Don't think negatively like that! You gonna be in SoCal? If so, let's meet up! Wow-- would she be cool with that? Because if it headed for the Keys, that would be a great option if lodgings are hard to find. Gonna be in Vancouver,Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Reply received. "good to hear from you....I live in a tiny duplex with a marvelous man and 2 cats ,,,no room for guests ..." Plus, she said they evac'ed for one storm and it was a nasty experience, so they would ride it out rather than evac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 I have a good feeling about the central/western Florida panhandle for Isaac. Assuming this pans out, Isaac will be my third TC chase (Edouard the lame, Irene). Looking forward to having a shot at a "real" hurricane intercept, hopefully with Isaac. Irene was a nice taste, it sure is different from storm chasing in the plains like I'm used to! Have fun and be safe! A study of the effects of passage over Luzon by WPAC storms in fact did find that weaker less organized storms were affected less by the passage than the strong very organized ones. At the time is was attributed to the fact that the main inflow and strong circulation were in the lower levels and hence easily disrupted by the terrain than the looser storms which tended to still have a fairly strong mid level core and inflow. Steve Ah, cool-- so I wasn't totally talking nonsense. Gonna be in Vancouver,Washington. OK. Reply received. "good to hear from you....I live in a tiny duplex with a marvelous man and 2 cats ,,,no room for guests ..." Plus, she said they evac'ed for one storm and it was a nasty experience, so they would ride it out rather than evac. Makes sense. A big hotel is preferable anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm really wanting this to edge W and clear the W coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm really wanting this to edge W and clear the W coast of FL. noooo w coast fl or bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Each forecast track nudges a little further W. It's starting to look interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 So are the hairs standin up yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 TS Watches went up for SE bahamas... have to think ones for FL are about 36 hrs behind -- at least for the Keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 So are the hairs standin up yet? A little tiny bit. The W nudge makes it more interesting to me, because the Cuba/Keys/S FL thing is sooooo much more complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Not sure if the 0z run received any of the data from the NOAA flight. Through hr 96 is a tad further N and E coming off Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Track wise doesn't look to be that much of change, although it looks stronger based on the isobaric presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 If Isaac becomes a Gulf Coastal threat, then I will likely be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 If Isaac becomes a Gulf Coastal threat, then I will likely be there. You should perhaps try to team up/work in tandem with Josh somehow if that turns out to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Hr 117 it's just offshore Naples/Cape Coral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 You should perhaps try to team up/work in tandem with Josh somehow if that turns out to be the case. As nice as that would be, it won't be feasible. If I go, it will be part of a UAH Severe/Radar group deployment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 You should perhaps try to team up/work in tandem with Josh somehow if that turns out to be the case. Ha ha ha, I'm really a lone wolf when I chase-- under the belief that every chaser really has their own way of doing it-- but I appreciate the matchmaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Hr 117 it's just offshore Naples/Cape Coral. Where was it on the 12Z? Was it in the Gulf or onshore? I guess it's a small victory that the GFS actually gets it into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Hr 144 going in near Apalachicola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Hr 144 going in near Apalachicola. Not bad. I think that represents a small shift left, actually. Not bad for the right-side global model. Very curious to see what the Euro says-- of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Where was it on the 12Z? Was it in the Gulf or onshore? I guess it's a small victory that the GFS actually gets it into the Gulf. About the same. Ends up moving a bit more to the W as it approaches the panhandle before leveling out and heading N into Apalachicola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 About the same. Ends up moving a bit more to the W as it approaches the panhandle before leveling out and heading N into Apalachicola. OK, cool-- so there's a W nudge. Slowly but surely. Would like to see the 00Z Euro stick to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 OK, cool-- so there's a W nudge. Slowly but surely. Would like to see the 00Z Euro stick to its guns. Yup. Think the trend to the W has leveled out though unless the Euro decides to throw a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 About the same. Ends up moving a bit more to the W as it approaches the panhandle before leveling out and heading N into Apalachicola. The core clears the coast a good bit quicker over s fl.. considerably better looking sys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Yup. Think the trend to the W has leveled out though unless the Euro decides to throw a surprise. Well, hopefully not. I'd really like to see it get further from the Peninsula. As long as it's so close and moving parallel to it, it's a sh*tty, messy setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Well, hopefully not. I'd really like to see it get further from the Peninsula. As long as it's so close and moving parallel to it, it's a sh*tty, messy setup. Agreed and I'm more or less talking about a more westward shift, say Louisiana. Won't take much for this to move further towards Panama City/Pensacola from a modeling standpoint with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Agreed and I'm more or less talking about a more westward shift, say Louisiana. Won't take much for this to move further towards Panama City/Pensacola from a modeling standpoint with the GFS. OK, I gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Center is reforming a few tenths of a degree south per the 2 am adv Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Center is reforming a few tenths of a degree south per the 2 am adv Josh Yeah, I just noticed, yoda! It's a very big deal, in my opinion; it puts a lot more of the Gulf in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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