HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wait, what? As it moves N across the Gulf (d 7-9), it strengthens. That's not too common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As it moves N across the Gulf (d 7-9), it strengthens. That's not too common. I do like how the Gulf has been essentially untouched this year as far as tropical activity, and you could probably fry an egg on the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As it moves N across the Gulf (d 7-9), it strengthens. That's not too common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Looks like a dead-on, bull's-eye Shredderola hit setting up. Given this, I hope it stays loose and disorganized up to then. Maybe it's a superstition, but it just seems like loose, crappy circulations survive the trauma better than nice, tight ones. I think there is validity to this. Weaker storms fare better than stronger storms with issues like Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Stewart drops in the always saucy dual outflow channels in the disco after Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 I think there is validity to this. Weaker storms fare better than stronger storms with issues like Hispaniola. Thanks. Glad it didn't sound like total nonsense. Stewart drops in the always saucy dual outflow channels in the disco after Cuba. Omg, totally. It's a titillating forecast. The brisk strengthening between Cuba and S FL has a King/Cleo vibe. Kinda interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Well... As a precaution, I'm looking at flights to FL late this week. If it's going to hit Metro S FL, I'm going to get there mega-early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Latest detailed track has it going just N of Key Largo with Homestead in its sights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Latest detailed track has it going just N of Key Largo with Homestead in its sights. Yep. If models converge on a S-FL scenario, I'm gonna fly out Friday and get there mega-early so I can really get in a good spot. It's giving me a King/Cleo vibe, which I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm falling into the typical run to run trap. Solid shift W. Ends up missing S Fla and into the southern edge of the Big Bend. *edit* 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm falling into the typical run to run trap. Solid shift W. Ends up missing S Fla and into the southern edge of the Big Bend. *edit* 6z GFS The key difference in this run is that it take a Hispaniola track very similar to the ECMWF with more weakening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yep. If models converge on a S-FL scenario, I'm gonna fly out Friday and get there mega-early so I can really get in a good spot. It's giving me a King/Cleo vibe, which I like. I approve of this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm falling into the typical run to run trap. Solid shift W. Ends up missing S Fla and into the southern edge of the Big Bend. *edit* 6z GFS Given the topography/surge potential in the Big Bend (even with a weak hurricane), that would actually probably be a less-ideal chase scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 OK, I'm not gonna pretend: colliding with Shredderola majorly sucks for a hurricane. It can even be fatal. But it's not an automatic death sentence. Here are post-1950 examples of cyclones that 1) passed over Shredderola and 2) went on to hit the USA as major 'canes. (Beulah 1967 just barely scraped the S coast, but technically, it did landfall.) These heartwarmin' tales o' recovery can give us the strength to get through Isaac's upcoming collision with that wicked, hideous landmass: Two more examples are Hilda '55 and Inez '66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm falling into the typical run to run trap. Solid shift W. Ends up missing S Fla and into the southern edge of the Big Bend. *edit* 6z GFS I'll take it. The key difference in this run is that it take a Hispaniola track very similar to the ECMWF with more weakening as well. Ahhh, makes sense. I approve of this message. You like your FL daytime footage. Given the topography/surge potential in the Big Bend (even with a weak hurricane), that would actually probably be a less-ideal chase scenario. It would be tougher, but I'll take it. Anything that gets it into the E Gulf and gives it some time to regroup between the Greater Antilles and the USA. Two more examples are Hilda '55 and Inez '66 I was limiting my sample set to American majors, but yeah, those would be good MX examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Hope this one doesn't do a Fay and ruin any chase chances for you josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Hope this one doesn't do a Fay and ruin any chase chances for you josh. Ugh, exactly, dude!! P.S. How are you, shaggy? Haven't seen you in a while. I've already gotten in a chase this year-- in Mexico-- so that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ugh, exactly, dude!! P.S. How are you, shaggy? Haven't seen you in a while. I've already gotten in a chase this year-- in Mexico-- so that's cool. I'm good and I was following your chase. I have been hanging out with this girl quite a bit and she doesn't have internet at her place so when i'm there i'm out of the loop. Other than that works been busy and with new equipment coming I have to travel to the west coast september 10th through the 14th right at the peak of the season so expect a cat 4 to be bearing down on NC coastline around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I probably know your answer already, but I'll ask anyway... I have a cousin in Marathon. I just saw her a few weeks ago at a reunion in Illinois. She's 70-ish, a very sweet lady, and a hippy, LOL. You wouldn't have any interest in using her place as a base, would you? I think she'd be cool with it. She'd probably evac anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z Euro is giving in finally... *edit* Meant to have a ? in there. Starts to turn over western/central Cuba. Then heads WNW/NW towards the central gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Hr 168 looks about due S of Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z Euro is giving in finally... *edit* Meant to have a ? in there. Starts to turn over western/central Cuba. Then heads WNW/NW towards the central gulf. Its certainly further north than the last two runs in the Caribbean, mainly due to the stronger base state of the TC post Hispaniola, but in the end it still takes it wnw it appears as the ridge builds in strong. On that track, its going to pass over the warmest water in the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Roughly skirts the MoM heading towards Gulfport/Mobile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm good and I was following your chase. I have been hanging out with this girl quite a bit and she doesn't have internet at her place so when i'm there i'm out of the loop. Other than that works been busy and with new equipment coming I have to travel to the west coast september 10th through the 14th right at the peak of the season so expect a cat 4 to be bearing down on NC coastline around that time. Don't think negatively like that! You gonna be in SoCal? If so, let's meet up! I probably know your answer already, but I'll ask anyway... I have a cousin in Marathon. I just saw her a few weeks ago at a reunion in Illinois. She's 70-ish, a very sweet lady, and a hippy, LOL. You wouldn't have any interest in using her place as a base, would you? I think she'd be cool with it. She'd probably evac anyway. Wow-- would she be cool with that? Because if it headed for the Keys, that would be a great option if lodgings are hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 OK, so basically, the Euro is holding firm to the idea of a C Gulf chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 OK, so basically, the Euro is holding firm to the idea of a C Gulf chase. Oh. Hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Oh. Hey. Just got your eMail. I'm here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wow-- would she be cool with that? Because if it headed for the Keys, that would be a great option if lodgings are hard to find. Wow is right. I didn't expect you to like that idea. I don't have her... Michelle's... contact info, but I can get it. I'll see what I can find out. Stay tuned. BTW, years ago I and an ex-gf spent a week in Marathon. I didn't even know Michelle was there at the time. We stayed at a Best Western, but it may be something else now. It was a pretty good-sized motel, IIRC... 2-story building. So that's another possibility for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wow is right. I didn't expect you to like that idea. I don't have her... Michelle's... contact info, but I can get it. I'll see what I can find out. Stay tuned. BTW, years ago I and an ex-gf spent a week in Marathon. I didn't even know Michelle was there at the time. We stayed at a Best Western, but it may be something else now. It was a pretty good-sized motel, IIRC... 2-story building. So that's another possibility for you. Yeah, those big, solid chain hotels are good for riding out cyclones in exposed places, so that could be an option. Thanks for checking! If she's not cool with it, I totally understand. Honestly, I wouldn't be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connor McCrorey Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I have a good feeling about the central/western Florida panhandle for Isaac. Assuming this pans out, Isaac will be my third TC chase (Edouard the lame, Irene). Looking forward to having a shot at a "real" hurricane intercept, hopefully with Isaac. Irene was a nice taste, it sure is different from storm chasing in the plains like I'm used to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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