andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It was Euro vs. the rest of the guidance, and the Euro has been crap this year. Not surprising to see the switcheroo at all. It isn't that far off the 12z consensus between the GFS/Euro...I'd tend to think the Euro has been more unstable with intensity rather than track (With Ernesto being a good example of this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm over it. I was foolish to expect something interesting from this crap system. Next! Relax man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Relax man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Hmm. Taking it over the western tip and into the channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It splits the channel again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah, yeah. Contaminated garbage. It can brush the Outer Banks as a 60-kt extratropical slopgyre for all I care. I'm not going to pay attention to the tropics until we have a true, clean sample to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah, yeah. Contaminated garbage. It can brush the Outer Banks as a 60-kt extratropical slopgyre for all I care. I'm not going to pay attention to the tropics until we have a true, clean sample to track. Given that the shear picks up substantially north of the Caribbean, this is a valid scenario if Isaac takes an east-of-GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Hmm. Taking it over the western tip and into the channel. It splits the channel again Well, what kind of silly track is that? I don't trust it. I'm sorry for being so negative. I just had a moment. I'm better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Overall, bad model is bad. Look at it; still trying to run an open wave through the Yucatan Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 lol What a tease at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Overall, bad model is bad. Look at it; still trying to run an open wave through the Yucatan Channel. The banter thread might be more for your liking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So much for the Euro being N and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z all over again with the final position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ends up heading NW/WNW into Central Louisiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Not sure what the pressure is there...but it really bombs in the Gulf... Edit: Not quite as intense as the 12z run, but still around 970 mb at 216 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ends up heading NW/WNW into Central Louisiana... What a bizarre run. The important inflection point remains the interaction with Hispaniola and the subsequent mid-level ridge building that takes place afterwards. The biggest differences I see at this time period are: A. GFS remains very strong with the cyclone through Hispaniola and remains vertically stacked. The ECWMF decouples the circulation and does not remain vertically stacked. B. Its around this point where the ECMWF keeps growing the mid-level ridge... the GFS does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's amazing. No storm is ever easy. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 What a bizarre run. The important inflection point remains the interaction with Hispaniola and the subsequent mid-level ridge building that takes place afterwards. The biggest differences I see at this time period are: A. GFS remains very strong with the cyclone through Hispaniola and remains vertically stacked. The ECWMF decouples the circulation and does not remain vertically stacked. B. Its around this point where the ECMWF keeps growing the mid-level ridge... the GFS does not. Yeah it definitely was odd. Looked like it was about to latch on to what the GFS has been showing but like you said the rebuilding ridge keeps shunting it further W. Euro is an incredible outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah it definitely was odd. Looked like it was about to latch on to what the GFS has been showing but like you said the rebuilding ridge keeps shunting it further W. Euro is an incredible outlier now. Yeah it looked like it was gonna go through the SW part of Hispaniola like the GFS and then re emerge in the SW bahamas. But instead it just turns west. Not much support for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 So, how plausible is this Euro solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Earlier tidbit from HPC. Euro v GFS. NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012 ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS BECOMES QUESTIONABLY FAST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS ON DAY 5 AND THUS IS NOT PREFERRED COMPARED TO THE BETTER SUPPORTED ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR DAYS 6-7/MON-TUE...GENERALLY PREFER THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLENDED SLIGHTLY WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR AMPLITUDE. THIS APPROACH IS ALSO USED FOR THE TRACK OF TD NINE CURRENTLY NEARING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE NHC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY DAY 6/MON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Updated HPC disco should be out in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As expected 6z guidance has shifted further E. Venture to guess the next update will show something heading in the general area of the upper Keys/Miami. Will be interesting to see how much they shed on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 348 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012 VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012 .WHILE A BROAD WEAKNESS IN MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LINGERS OVER THE EAST COAST. DESPITE THE COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH ABOUT DAY 4/SAT...WITH ALMOST ANY SOLUTION QUITE GOOD...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO WITH THE 00Z GFS SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK AND APPEARING TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. BEGINNING WITH DAY 5/SUN HOWEVER...THE SPREAD QUICKLY INCREASES PARTICULARLY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CROSSING CANADA...WITH THE GFS THE FIRST SOLUTION TO DEVIATE MOST FROM THE CONSENSUS AND THUS LESS PREFERRED COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL FORM THE BASIS OF THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONT. REGARDING TS ISAAC...THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS EXTREMELY LARGE...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN THE FIRST TO CURVE ISAAC TO THE NORTH...BRINGING ISAAC TOWARD MYRTLE BEACH BY NEXT MONDAY... WHILE THE GFS/UKMET AFFECT SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND ECMWF ACROSS WESTERN CUBA BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL USE THE LATEST POINTS RELAYED IN THE 08Z COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NHC FOR DAYS 3-5...BEFORE BLENDING DAYS 6/7 WITH YESTERDAY'S COORDINATED POINTS. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR TS ISAAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Looks like a dead-on, bull's-eye Shredderola hit setting up. Given this, I hope it stays loose and disorganized up to then. Maybe it's a superstition, but it just seems like loose, crappy circulations survive the trauma better than nice, tight ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 OK, I looked at the 00Z Euro myself, and, actually, it doesn't look that weird. It seems like a believable lifecycle. (Well, the strengthening up to landfall on the C Gulf Coast is maybe a little weird, but...) Anyhoo, just wanted to save this for posterity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 OK, I looked at the 00Z Euro myself, and, actually, it doesn't look that weird. It seems like a believable lifecycle. (Well, the strengthening up to landfall on the C Gulf Coast is maybe a little weird, but...) Anyhoo, just wanted to save this for posterity: Wait, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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