Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 First time I remember since I started paying attention to 94L/Tropical Depression 9 that the op GFS wasn't South and West of most of its ensemble members. Using 996 mb or stronger as a discriminator- lots of 996 mb or stronger storms on the ensembles, and they are distributed both sides of the op GFS track, if anything, most of them could be a little bit West of the op GFS. As mentioned above, I believe best Florida chase potential is TPA and South and PFN and West. Not too far West, ie, Louisiana, but I've been to the beach at Biloxi. Surge prone, obviously, but good roads. And the guy who chased and got a car floating into the lobby of the hotel during Katrina, well, I prefer the Charley videos, more of a wind than a surge guy, but the floating cars was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 12z Euro is a decent shift W. Shoots the channel and strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 12z Euro is a decent shift W. Shoots the channel and strengthening. Finally, some sanity in these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Finally, some sanity in these models. You should see hr 216. Looking salty and implies a La. threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Florida has better near shore roads not in the immediate surge/drowning zone. BTW, if Euro is up towards Florida Big Bend, well, forgive me for invoking Joe Bastardi, but back in the AccuWx days, he'd say storms approaching the Big Bend from the South or Southwest would produce Easterly winds which would tend to push water away from shore and upwell cooler water, limiting max potential instensity. Looking at AccuWx PPV 6 hour time steps, Euro isn't far from being a good thing, moving almost due North, a tad farther West and it would be Panama City Beach. Anything from Panama City Westward seems to usually work out for good storms. We are talking 9 1/2 days away... Yeah, the FL Panhandle is in some ways more desirable than the W coast, largely because the angle of approach would be cleaner. well that makes this naples boy tingly as all get out. my backyars is nearly the naples airport which is a tropical storm evac area. my pregnant wife not happy..maybe i send her to parents on ec and come chase from my homefront with you guys Yeah, definitely you need to put her somewhere safe so you can enjoy the cyclone. Josh - you need to get some more video of storm surge / large waves! Obviously there are some other considerations, such as where you are - you might not want to be on the coast in Flamingo, FL where you have no higher ground to go to - and it's also difficult to film the sea during a nighttime chase. But still. It's funny you say that because I decided to place more of a priority on that this year. Wind footage will always be the number-one thing for me, but when possible, I do want to try to get some more beachfront shots. First time I remember since I started paying attention to 94L/Tropical Depression 9 that the op GFS wasn't South and West of most of its ensemble members. Using 996 mb or stronger as a discriminator- lots of 996 mb or stronger storms on the ensembles, and they are distributed both sides of the op GFS track, if anything, most of them could be a little bit West of the op GFS. As mentioned above, I believe best Florida chase potential is TPA and South and PFN and West. Not too far West, ie, Louisiana, but I've been to the beach at Biloxi. Surge prone, obviously, but good roads. And the guy who chased and got a car floating into the lobby of the hotel during Katrina, well, I prefer the Charley videos, more of a wind than a surge guy, but the floating cars was pretty cool. Nice clustering in the Gulf. Woo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 You should see hr 216. Looking salty and implies a La. threat. Oh, good. We can revisit those meanie chick cops again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Oh, good. We can revisit those meanie chick cops again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 You should see hr 216. Looking salty and implies a La. threat. Implies Mobile to Apalachicola at 240, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Oh, good. We can revisit those meanie chick cops again. Might end up Bama or Mississippi law women instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Implies Mobile to Apalachicola at 240, imo I updated my outlook in post 880. Either way the SoCal fella has shown no ability to deal with Southern women that happen to hold a badge. Better that we don't revisit that sad state of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The Euro run of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 I updated my outlook in post 880. Either way the SoCal fella has shown no ability to deal with Southern women that happen to hold a badge. Better that we don't revisit that sad state of events. The problem was that they started the conversation with hostility, rather than the spirit of cooperation I was trying to foster. Anyhoo... I'm liking this latest run, obviously. I like the hearty cyclone and the clean angle of approach. I just hope it stays the f*ck away from New Orleans-- as much as I wubz hurricanes, I would hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Should see a slight shift to the W with the next advisory. Intensity models have backed off so might see a minor adjustment. Trend has been W today. HPC has it just W of the 12z GFS at day 7 after coordination with the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Cool. I don't care about intensity-- current or forecast-- right now. Just wanna see that W trend continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Bayou Buster or Mobile Mauler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Bayou Buster or Mobile Mauler? Redneck Riviera Rocker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 18z GFS shifts a tad to the E. Less time over Cuba. Near Key Largo heading WNW/NW over the Everglades and Fort Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Exits back into the Gulf near Tampa briefly heading for the Big Bend area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Complicated. Like any good relationship, it takes care and time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Like any good relationship, it takes care and time. An awesome way to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z GFS - Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yo. I'm back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 OK, I'm not gonna pretend: colliding with Shredderola majorly sucks for a hurricane. It can even be fatal. But it's not an automatic death sentence. Here are post-1950 examples of cyclones that 1) passed over Shredderola and 2) went on to hit the USA as major 'canes. (Beulah 1967 just barely scraped the S coast, but technically, it did landfall.) These heartwarmin' tales o' recovery can give us the strength to get through Isaac's upcoming collision with that wicked, hideous landmass: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z Euro is further N and E. Nearing Eastern Cuba after brushing Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z Euro is further N and E. Nearing Eastern Cuba after brushing Hispaniola. I'm over it. I was foolish to expect something interesting from this crap system. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm over it. I was foolish to expect something interesting from this crap system. Next! Just skims the Cuban coast as it heads towards the Western end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Just skims the Cuban coast as it heads towards the Western end. Yeah, yeah. Contaminated garbage. It can brush the Outer Banks as a 60-kt extratropical slopgyre for all I care. I'm not going to pay attention to the tropics until we have a true, clean sample to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z Euro is further N and E. Nearing Eastern Cuba after brushing Hispaniola. It was Euro vs. the rest of the guidance, and the Euro has been crap this year. Not surprising to see the switcheroo at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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