andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Would you like to chase a Hurricane Gilbert type storm? Oh, for sure. Strong Yucatan hurricanes are my favorite kind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ha ha ha, totally agreed. Same thing in this video of the Dallas 1957 tornado-- the same awesome combo of the over-the-top score and the melodramatic, almost operatic narration. Start at 0:30: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1uY3evy61k holy crap, I watched that in my high school meteorology class! I agree, the 1950s stuff is pretty funny, with the dramatic newsreel-style stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 holy crap, I watched that in my high school meteorology class! I agree, the 1950s stuff is pretty funny, with the dramatic newsreel-style stuff. Yep, I remember seeing this film in elementary school in the 1970s-- when it was really the only decent, up-close tornado footage. More than fifty years alter, it's still great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 When Camille was in the gulf and headed towards the coast, my father packed us all up and we drove up to Montgomery, Alabama from here in Pensacola. (I was 8 yrs old) He had been on a ship at some point in his military career and forced to ride out a hurricane at sea. After that point in his life, he swore he would never ride out a hurricane again. And we never did. Not even a catagory 1...if a storm was headed within 200 miles of our area, we were gone in a flash. I remember all the adults talking about how many were killed and the destruction in Mississippi. I admire you Josh for chasing hurricanes and enjoy watching all your film footage. Stay safe out there, and thanks for all the posts concerning the information on all the past storms, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ethel, however... Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 12 hrs, then Cat 1 6hrs later...The decision to chase this, in time, would be nightmarish, I'd imagine. Landfall intensity was 60 kt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ethel, however... Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 12 hrs, then Cat 1 6hrs later...The decision to chase this, in time, would be nightmarish, I'd imagine. Landfall intensity was 60 kt! Yeah, that's a major overestimate. My guess is that the 972 mb matches well with about a 105 mph Category 2 that was likely similar to Hurricane Earl in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Me neither so I cannot comment on this one way or another. This was the storm that ad the highest winds in an adbvisory right 190 MPH? in other hurricanes how about Hazel or the long island express? Two hurricanes officially had sustained winds of 190 mph: Camille (1969) and Allen (1980). Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) were close with 185 mph, as well as Mitch (1998) and Rita (2005) at 180 mph. However, maximum 1-min sustained wind is even more difficult to correctly sample than minimum SLP due to a number of factors, including rapid natural fluctuations of the storm, as well as the fact that it's easier to drop a dropsonde in the middle of a well-defined eye than it is to find the exact part of the eyewall that contains the highest winds. So these are all pretty good estimates, but interpret them with error bars. Category 4/5 storms can also contain very intense meso/misovorticies that are also very difficult to sample in the right place at the right time, e.g. "tornado-like vortices" associated with Hugo (1989) in St. Croix, or the 253 mph wind gust associated with Cyclone Olivia (1996) near Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It's times like this that I start gettin' all nostalgic and whipping out the vintage porn. Gimme one of them old-style sexycanes, please-- one of them deep-tropical, industrial-strength, no-messin'-around deals. Here are my faves, in order of hawtness: I guess XTRP is probably your favorite model, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ethel, however... Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 12 hrs, then Cat 1 6hrs later...The decision to chase this, in time, would be nightmarish, I'd imagine. Landfall intensity was 60 kt! Probably the most brutal dry air entrainment ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It would be nice if they could make the reanalysis of Camille a special project and get it done. That 190 mph is so distorted and often misused/misquoted. Recon had some crazy reports. On the 16 they penetrated the storm with a 908 mb reading with no reported windspeed estimates, then six hours later it was 905 mb with surface winds at 90 kts and flight level winds of 140 kts. There was the jump between the August 16 intermediate advisory at 3 pm of (est 115 mph) to the 5 pm full advisory #11 of (est 150 mph) that came from that recon report and from what I'm getting it was based on the flight level readings and not the estimated surface report. On the 17th is where the infamous 190 mph came from and after doing some research I found out that the report back was of 901 mb and 180 kts - not 190 mph. Then you had the jump from advisory #15 (est 160 mph) to advisory #16 (est 190 mph) based on that last recon report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1969-prelim/camille/prelim19.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1969-prelim/camille/prelim20.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Got some chills reading those...although not as much as the advisories from Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 When Camille was in the gulf and headed towards the coast, my father packed us all up and we drove up to Montgomery, Alabama from here in Pensacola. (I was 8 yrs old) He had been on a ship at some point in his military career and forced to ride out a hurricane at sea. After that point in his life, he swore he would never ride out a hurricane again. And we never did. Not even a catagory 1...if a storm was headed within 200 miles of our area, we were gone in a flash. I remember all the adults talking about how many were killed and the destruction in Mississippi. I admire you Josh for chasing hurricanes and enjoy watching all your film footage. Stay safe out there, and thanks for all the posts concerning the information on all the past storms, Thanks very much-- I'm so glad you like my chases. That is very interesting Re: your dad-- how that hurricane at sea made such a strong impression on him. Pensacola got hit pretty well by the fringes of Camille-- I think the winds there reached 60 kt-- so I imagine there was some damage? Yeah, that's a major overestimate. My guess is that the 972 mb matches well with about a 105 mph Category 2 that was likely similar to Hurricane Earl in 1998. Agreed-- I think Ethel is going to be majorly demoted in reanalysis. Two hurricanes officially had sustained winds of 190 mph: Camille (1969) and Allen (1980). Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) were close with 185 mph, as well as Mitch (1998) and Rita (2005) at 180 mph. However, maximum 1-min sustained wind is even more difficult to correctly sample than minimum SLP due to a number of factors, including rapid natural fluctuations of the storm, as well as the fact that it's easier to drop a dropsonde in the middle of a well-defined eye than it is to find the exact part of the eyewall that contains the highest winds. So these are all pretty good estimates, but interpret them with error bars. Category 4/5 storms can also contain very intense meso/misovorticies that are also very difficult to sample in the right place at the right time, e.g. "tornado-like vortices" associated with Hugo (1989) in St. Croix, or the 253 mph wind gust associated with Cyclone Olivia (1996) near Australia. I feel pretty certain that the Camille winds are going to come down in reanalysis-- especially the landfall value. The winds were not 165 on the MS coast-- no way. I guess XTRP is probably your favorite model, huh Ha ha ha-- yeah, I do like those straight-line tracks. It would be nice if they could make the reanalysis of Camille a special project and get it done. That 190 mph is so distorted and often misused/misquoted. Agreed. I think they should treat it like Andrew in 2002 and do it out of order. It's that important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Tingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Tinglier and tinglier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Man if this gets to the Gulf relatively intact, judging by the SSTs... It. Is. On. (And yes I'm going Oscar Mayer mode right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Man if this gets to the Gulf relatively intact, judging by the SSTs... It. Is. On. (And yes I'm going Oscar Mayer mode right now) Hey, that's OK in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok you kept me up for the always venerable 6z run. Still Eastern Cuba and Miami and a tad further W up the spine. Inside lala land with Euro v GFS from a modeling standpoint... 22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok you kept me up for the always venerable 6z run. Still Eastern Cuba and Miami and a tad further W up the spine. Inside lala land with Euro v GFS from a modeling standpoint... 22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z. Nudge it further S and W, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Earlier tidbit from HPC. Euro v GFS. NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012 ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS BECOMES QUESTIONABLY FAST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS ON DAY 5 AND THUS IS NOT PREFERRED COMPARED TO THE BETTER SUPPORTED ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR DAYS 6-7/MON-TUE...GENERALLY PREFER THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLENDED SLIGHTLY WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR AMPLITUDE. THIS APPROACH IS ALSO USED FOR THE TRACK OF TD NINE CURRENTLY NEARING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE NHC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY DAY 6/MON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I didn't actually check the full run of the 00z Euro until just now...and that's a nice 960 mb at the end there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Josh, do Texas storms excite you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Josh, do Texas storms excite you? Oh, for sure! In the USA, it's my favorite chase turf, by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Oh, for sure! In the USA, it's my favorite chase turf, by far. Florida has better near shore roads not in the immediate surge/drowning zone. BTW, if Euro is up towards Florida Big Bend, well, forgive me for invoking Joe Bastardi, but back in the AccuWx days, he'd say storms approaching the Big Bend from the South or Southwest would produce Easterly winds which would tend to push water away from shore and upwell cooler water, limiting max potential instensity. Looking at AccuWx PPV 6 hour time steps, Euro isn't far from being a good thing, moving almost due North, a tad farther West and it would be Panama City Beach. Anything from Panama City Westward seems to usually work out for good storms. We are talking 9 1/2 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 12z GFS has shifted W coming off Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Across Marathon then just offshore of Cape Coral and general Tampa Bay area hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Across Marathon then just offshore of Cape Coral and general Tampa Bay area hit. well that makes this naples boy tingly as all get out. my backyars is nearly the naples airport which is a tropical storm evac area. my pregnant wife not happy..maybe i send her to parents on ec and come chase from my homefront with you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 OPERATIONS NOAA-P-3s Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012 NOAA-42: Will ferry from MacDill to Barbados. The scheduled take-off is 14 UTC (10AM). No HRD scientists will be on this flight. Wednesday, Aug 22, 2012 NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 2000 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados. Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight. Thursday, Aug 23, 2012 NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 0800 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados. Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Josh - you need to get some more video of storm surge / large waves! Obviously there are some other considerations, such as where you are - you might not want to be on the coast in Flamingo, FL where you have no higher ground to go to - and it's also difficult to film the sea during a nighttime chase. But still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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