Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Is crossing the border between BZ and MX that hard fot a seasoned world traveller with a well worn passport? I'd assume they'd be a nice border station in the former British Honduras... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Is crossing the border between BZ and MX that hard fot a seasoned world traveller with a well worn passport? I'd assume they'd be a nice border station in the former British Honduras... It's not a matter of my travel experience. Border crossings can always be a hassle-- especially with a hurricane coming. It's just another unwanted variable in a complex puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's not a matter of my travel experience. Border crossings can always be a hassle-- especially with a hurricane coming. It's just another unwanted variable in a complex puzzle. Not sure where I put all that info from Matthew. I know crossing into Belize from Mexico it takes a good hour or so because you have to stop and get insurance and then stop to get your car fumigated. Plus if I remember correctly they close the crossing into Belize a certain time frame before a projected landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's not a matter of my travel experience. Border crossings can always be a hassle-- especially with a hurricane coming. It's just another unwanted variable in a complex puzzle. Than what Icebreaker said. Just eyeballing visible, if it is a BZ landfall, it'd be close to the border and you'd have a decent shot of eyewall, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Not sure where I put all that info from Matthew. I know crossing into Belize from Mexico it takes a good hour or so because you have to stop and get insurance and then stop to get your car fumigated. Plus if I remember correctly they close the crossing into Belize a certain time frame before a projected landfall. Yep, I was Googling it as well. I gotta dig up that eMail you sent me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Gonna be close on the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Gonna be close on the border... If I pull the trigger, it's CUN and then a drive S. The forecast landfall point has actually nudged N and is now a little N of Chetumal. One cool thing: the slowing means it might make landfall in the morning-- rather than the middle of the night. P.S. Just tried to call you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Not sure where I put all that info from Matthew. I know crossing into Belize from Mexico it takes a good hour or so because you have to stop and get insurance and then stop to get your car fumigated. Plus if I remember correctly they close the crossing into Belize a certain time frame before a projected landfall. That would suck to miss a hurricane because of a fumigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Wasn't the previous incarnation of Ernesto a big pain in the balls too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 After taking a breather visible keeps looking better. Recon might find a bigger eye with it open to the W. Movement still looks wnw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 After taking a breather visible keeps looking better. Recon might find a bigger eye with it open to the W. Movement still looks wnw. Totally. Also, as I mentioned in the main thread, one thing I'm digging is the expansive, symmetric outflow. The "architecture" is there. I expect this to flare up again after sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Recon is going through the channel. Should start getting some data in the next hour. NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 800 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 ...ERNESTO SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 82.1W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Recon is going through the channel. Should start getting some data in the next hour. It's gaining decent latitude-- up .3 and over .5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's gaining decent latitude-- up .3 and over .5. Me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 At this point, MX definitely looks like the place to go, particularly for the right-front winds. Did you buy your ticket yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 At this point, MX definitely looks like the place to go, particularly for the right-front winds. Did you buy your ticket yet? Ugh, no! I can't decide. Going a little bit nutty over it, honestly. P.S. Agreed Re: MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Recon is getting close. So far obs are meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Recon is getting close. So far obs are meh. Grrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hmm... Yeah? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 994.5 extrap. I'll take my chances on a nice evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It looks pretty ugly. You have some cojones if you pull the trigger with what we see. I generally like NHC intensity guidance I suppose tho I could certainly see it be lower or higher. I'd lean lower for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It looks pretty ugly. You have some cojones if you pull the trigger with what we see. I generally like NHC intensity guidance I suppose tho I could certainly see it be lower or higher. I'd lean lower for now... Firing convection near the center now. I say no guts, no glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Firing convection near the center now. I say no guts, no glory. I wouldnt take my word too strongly but I am your FB friend so I wouldnt take yours too strongly either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 My 2 cents... If it continues to be weak then it will go into Belize without much umph. If it does get itself together in the next 12-18 hours or so after D-max then your looking at a track which plays on the Belize/Mexico border, but since its strong, it doesn't matter because its gotten its act together and you have another shot on the other side of the BOC in a few days... and it may even be stronger. Plus, it's the 1st one of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I wouldnt take my word too strongly but I am your FB friend so I wouldnt take yours too strongly either. Is George Takei the king of Facebook ro what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Is George Takei the king of Facebook ro what? either him or those follow back pseudo rapper teens from houston you randomly see someone like a photo from here and there -- they might be bots though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 My 2 cents... If it continues to be weak then it will go into Belize without much umph. If it does get itself together in the next 12-18 hours or so after D-max then your looking at a track which plays on the Belize/Mexico border, but since its strong, it doesn't matter because its gotten its act together and you have another shot on the other side of the BOC in a few days... and it may even be stronger. Plus, it's the 1st one of the season. But there's nothing quite like Yucatan 'canes at peak season when they come together. I bought a ticket that is fully refundable within 24 hr-- for a flight that leaves at 5 am L.A. time. So I can sit back and wait for two more advisories before deciding. I'm tending toward not going, but now I have the option to go if it pulls a dmax nutty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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