HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Dude, those visibles are sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 GAME TIME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Scott just called me-- woke me up outta bed-- with some talk of a close eyewall. I thought he was joking. He wasn't. Wtf?? Amazing what happens when a storm becomes vertically coherent. Its these type of reorganizations that the models poorly handle. You can throw out the GFS/ECMWF right now which had no idea this was about to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Just now heading back in for another center fix before the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 HWRF looks like a pretty reasonable scenario based on what's going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 will this cause a more nw motion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Scott just called me-- woke me up outta bed-- with some talk of a close eyewall. I thought he was joking. He wasn't. Wtf?? Hey Josh - do you have an RSS feed for your blog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Hey Josh - do you have an RSS feed for your blog? Nope-- but you can just bookmark it (http://icyclone.com/now/) or follow on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/iCyclone). Please Like my page! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It has the "shrimp" minimal hurricane look. I'd start looking at options soon for MX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 It has the "shrimp" minimal hurricane look. I'd start looking at options soon for MX We're thinking more to Belize right now-- but let's see what the latest VDM suggests with regard to center location. By "shrimp", do you mean a microcane? If so, yeah-- agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looks like it might still be gaining lat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looks like it might still be gaining lat... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Recon looks to have missed the center. Could be farther NW. Down to 996.5 with 29 knot winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Think this NW motion may ensure it clears Honduras, which is good for Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 80.5W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Of course the new forecast brings it ashore right at the the BZ/MX border. Ugh!! Decisions, decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 061450 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012 A. 06/14:36:30Z B. 15 deg 51 min N 080 deg 26 min W C. 850 mb 1402 m D. 67 kt E. 293 deg 4 nm F. 029 deg 51 kt G. 286 deg 5 nm H. 996 mb I. 17 C / 1556 m J. 22 C / 1510 m K. 16 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. E09/10/5 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 14 MAX FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Oh, yeah-- look at value D. It wasn't reflected in the advisory. If it's legit, this baby's a 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Judging by the only RSO source available right now, this should continue to be an interesting situation. Really digging the sat appearence as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Judging by the only RSO source available right now, this should continue to be an interesting situation. Really digging the sat appearence as of now. Agreed-- it looks awesome. Weirdly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Isn't much real change in the 12z GFS. Still takes it in around the Belize/Mexico border, drives it due W and then ends up drifting S about halfway to Veracruz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Wistful, looking at GFS 500 mb and 700 mb forecasts @84 hours, if this could have just gotten about 19ºN, this might have had a shot at Northern Tamps, maybe even BRO. ETA: ifs and butts, at 96 hours, it would have been turned back WNW or W, but at 23º or so, with all that extra time over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 I wish the trends would suggest one side of the border or the other. Grrrrrr. The latest: http://icyclone.com/now/2012/aug/06-august-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Latest visible isn't as salty as before with what looks like a dry slot to the N. Possibly see the eye clearing out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Latest visible isn't as salty as before with what looks like a dry slot to the N. Possibly see the eye clearing out though. Yeah, convection on IR seems to be warming quite a bit. Could be a result of this really expanding and having a larger breathing area. Could have taken in more stable air. Recon has the mean heading around 300-310 over the past 4 VDM's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 The short-term intensity trends don't matter so much to me right now, as long as the general, smoothed trend is good and there are no major hiccups. What I really care about right now is heading, as I'm trying to get clarity Re: which side of the border this baby's gonna come ashore on. That is the million-dollar question for me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I wish the trends would suggest one side of the border or the other. Grrrrrr. The latest: http://icyclone.com/...ugust-2012.html I would hedge my bets 70/30 Belize/Mexico right now. Deep layer steering suggests a predominantly westward motion, perhaps just north of west. On top of that, BAMD is the furthest south of all the guidance right now, and the cyclone has deepened quite a bit faster than expected. However, if it's right on the border, you're going to get the strongest winds / best storm surge to the north of center, so it might be best to err on the north side. So yeah, that probably doesn't help you at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 I would hedge my bets 70/30 Belize/Mexico right now. Deep layer steering suggests a predominantly westward motion, perhaps just north of west. On top of that, BAMD is the furthest south of all the guidance right now, and the cyclone has deepened quite a bit faster than expected. However, if it's right on the border, you're going to get the strongest winds / best storm surge to the north of center, so it might be best to err on the north side. So yeah, that probably doesn't help you at all. Yep. This is exactly the conversation that's going on inside my head. Even within the iCyclone team, there's no consensus on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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