Jonesing for a Chase

[Cory]

I can't wait to see the iCyclone Cherry Popper hoping across the Western Basin...

I forgot about that.

[HurricaneJosh]

I can't wait for something to beat the living **** out of BASTARD.

Oh, totally.

I think I told you this, but it's my fantasy to be in 140-kt winds and afterward take a picture of a completely fried, denuded landscape-- with the BASTARD still affixed atop a blasted out shell of a car.

I want that impeller to fry, baby.

[Cory]

Oh, totally.

I think I told you this, but it's my fantasy to be in 140-kt winds and afterward take a picture of a completely fried, denuded landscape-- with the BASTARD still affixed atop a blasted out shell of a car.

I want that impeller to fry, baby.

[HurricaneJosh]

Cory, that reminds me: for our testing in Texas in July, I'm going to bring a few extra impellers, so we can really test hard without worrying. They're cheap-- I'll get a bunch.

[Cory]

Cory, that reminds me: for our testing in Texas in July, I'm going to bring a few extra impellers, so we can really test hard without worrying. They're cheap-- I'll get a bunch.

Awesome. I was thinking about that the other day. I don't know what the max velocity of a leaf blower is, but my dad has a huge air compressor that will blast the crap out of an impeller and we can see just how much it can handle before it blows apart (if it does). I'm assuming that firing that airstream at close range would be 150-200 mph.

Oh, Scott and I were trading PM's about building his own BASTARD, and he mentioned that when he held his Kestrel manually in a hurricane, he didn't notice much of an impact on the wind speeds from the heavy rain. It'll be interesting to simulate wind-driven rain and see if there really is an issue with it, or if your Karl experience was just a fluke.

[HurricaneJosh]

Awesome. I was thinking about that the other day. I don't know what the max velocity of a leaf blower is, but my dad has a huge air compressor that will blast the crap out of an impeller and we can see just how much it can handle before it blows apart (if it does). I'm assuming that firing that airstream at close range would be 150-200 mph.

Oh, Scott and I were trading PM's about building his own BASTARD, and he mentioned that when he held his Kestrel manually in a hurricane, he didn't notice much of an impact on the wind speeds from the heavy rain. It'll be interesting to simulate wind-driven rain and see if there really is an issue with it, or if your Karl experience was just a fluke.

Oh, wow-- that leaf blower thing is strong. D*mn. The Kestrel peaks at 118 kt, I believe, so we might want to go easy on it.

Yeah, during Gustav, Scott held a Kestrel in his hand and got a gust to 68 kt at a height of ~2 m near Morgan City, just a little while before the calm-- and I remember it was raining quite heavily in that eyewall. I felt that reading correlated fairly well with what we were seeing and was comfortable with it (also assuming it was highly unlikely we sampled the highest winds).

My readings during Karl in Veracruz, on the other hand, seemed to have no connection to what I was seeing and experiencing, and I believe (and hope) it was must a defective model. The Kestrel folks very graciously replaced it when I explained my concerns afterward-- so this new one is not the one I had in Karl.

[Floydbuster]

Here ya go, Josh....spent a good amount of time when I could be resting for work but am too hyped up on caffeine working on this for you in particular.

Hurricane landfalls of your Cat-4 or Cat-5 intensity are rare, but possible. In order to record actual sustained winds of Category 4 or higher the last 10 years, you would have had to have been:

- Iris '01 - Monkey River Town, Punta Gorda or Placencia, Belize - 145 mph sustained

<--- There ya go, Josh...stripped trees. A horrific but often forgotten hurricane. Imagine being set up in a place like Port O'Connor on a hot August afternoon and having a tiny-buzz saw rip through. It would be nasty, indeed.

- Michelle '01 - Near Bay of Pigs, Cuba - 135 mph sustained

<---- Miles inland, steel bent by Michelle's Cat-4 winds. I remember tracking Michelle well when I was 13 years old. The weekend after my last Halloween trick-or-treating, and the week of Game 3 of the World Series. I remember chowing down on candy from Halloween as Bill Keneely was on TWC sweating in sunny Key West knowing they'd probably just get a little squall.

- Charley '04 - Cayo Costa/Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte, Florida - 150 mph sustained

<---- Aerial view of Captiva Island, note the extreme wind damage to trees but the strong building codes that held up to sustained winds bursting to the surface of 130 kts. Only in America...

Ivan '04 - Grand Cayman, Island - 150 mph sustained

<--- Often overshadowed by it's other impacts, Grand Cayman received sustained winds near Cat-5 strength. YouTube has a good video taken as Ivan roared past. It's eerie and one of the more violent hurricane videos I've seen. Just search "Hurricane Ivan, Grand Cayman".

Dennis '05 - Near Punta Mangles Altos, Cuba - 140 mph sustained

You would've had a ball scaling the south Cuban coast while Dennis teetered between a measly 135 mph and a modest 150 mph.

Emily '05 - Playa del Carmen, Mexico - Sustained 135 mph winds

<--- I would have bet money based on satellite that Emily was 115 mph rather than 115 kts in Mexico, but obviously it was a furious Cat-4 at landfall. 1987 Cat 3 into DR, 1993 Cat-3 impact on NC, 2005 Cat-4 into MX....I hate to see what Emily does next.

Wilma '05 - Cozumel, Mexico - 150 mph sustained

150 mph landfall with that eye directly over you, you would've HAD to have some amazing video.

Dean '07 - Costa Maya and Majahual, Mexico - 175 mph sustained

<--- You had a great chase, maybe it's a good thing you WEREN'T in Costa Maya or Majahual.

Felix '07 - Punta Gorda and Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua - 160 mph sustained

Between Iris, Charley and Felix...towns named "Punta Gorda" have bad luck.

Gustav '08 - Paso Real de San Diego, Cuba or Isle of Youth - 155 mph or a wind gust to 211 mph

Knowing you Josh, your blog would say, "SET-UP IN SOME TOWN CALLED PASO REAL DE SAN DIEGO" then a few minutes later "WIND GUST TO 211 MPH...CLOTHES STRIPPED OFF BODY"

Ike '08 - Turks and Caicos Islands, Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba - 135 mph sustained

<--- I have a feeling Ike didn't have nearly as much Cat-4 gusto in the Turks and Caicos and Northeast Cuba than it would have had with another 36 hours over the Gulf Stream before hitting Southeast Florida had the ridging been just a bit weaker. Hurricane Ike could have been a Category 4 or 5 South Florida landfall, easy.

Paloma '08 - Cayman Brac, Cayman Islands - 140 mph sustained

<--- Your stripped trees and bent steel from little-known Paloma.

Since then, that's all she wrote. Realistically, with the exception of your Dean chase, and U.S. landfall of Charley...options are limited but Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls may not be just quite as rare as people are made to believe. With the three year drought across the Atlantic, and seven year drought in the U.S. (with the exception of that weak and disorganized 920 mb landfall in Louisiana in 2005), luck won't last forever. Will it be Corpus Christi? Sanibel Island? Edisto Beach? Who knows...that's why we watch every seedling.

Too bad you can't chase in Cuba.

Captain Ron: Yeah, squirt. Pirates are easy to deal with. It's the Cuban cops that you gotta worry about.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey, Mike!

Thanks for pulling these cool pics together-- I'd never seen some of them!

Iris 2001 is one of my all-time favorites-- my kind of cyclone-- and I would chase something down there now-- no prob. (I tried to get to BZ for Richard 2010 but didn't make my connection in San Salvador due to engine troubles.)

That Charley 2004 pic is very cool-- as that's the exact location that had the presumed 130-kt winds. Like you said, the houses are surprisingly unscathed when compared with the trees-- it's impressive! Lesser building codes would have made an ugly scene.

I am still pissed about missing Dean 2007's eyewall by just a few miles. Ugh.

Felix 2007 would have been tough to chase. With the exception of perhaps Bluefields (raked by Cat-4 Joan 1988) and maybe Puerto Cabezas, those towns along the NI coast are pretty hard to get to.

Thanks for creating this cool scrapbook of Cat 4/5 landfalls!

[Floydbuster]

You bet. You're lucky I don't work for 11 hours, I can still get good sleep

Yeah, 2010 wasn't that bad a season for tracking/chasing. Think about it, 5 major hurricanes...and had Alex, Paula, Richard or Tomas gotten just a bit stronger...that would've been 9 major hurricanes for the season. Hell, Hermine could have even been one had it pulled a Bret '99 and stayed over the Bay of Campeche (or as I like to call it, the Bay of sexy tropical cyclones) a bit longer.

I know you can't say for certain whether storms will hit land, but I'd be very surprised if this year doesn't bring any landfalls. It would be very unusual to have a sixth year without a 100 kt+ storm in the U.S. and a third year without a hurricane at all in the U.S.

Of course, this year's name list has brought us past storms of significance...Floyd, Lenny, Dennis,Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma....we shall see.

[HurricaneJosh]

You bet. You're lucky I don't work for 11 hours, I can still get good sleep

Yeah, 2010 wasn't that bad a season for tracking/chasing. Think about it, 5 major hurricanes...and had Alex, Paula, Richard or Tomas gotten just a bit stronger...that would've been 9 major hurricanes for the season. Hell, Hermine could have even been one had it pulled a Bret '99 and stayed over the Bay of Campeche (or as I like to call it, the Bay of sexy tropical cyclones) a bit longer.

I know you can't say for certain whether storms will hit land, but I'd be very surprised if this year doesn't bring any landfalls. It would be very unusual to have a sixth year without a 100 kt+ storm in the U.S. and a third year without a hurricane at all in the U.S.

Of course, this year's name list has brought us past storms of significance...Floyd, Lenny, Dennis,Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma....we shall see.

Yeah... I don't buy the whole "overdue" argument, because it has no scientific basis-- but that having been said, it would be exceedingly unusual for the USA to go another calendar year without a 'cane or a 100-kt storm.

For historical perspective... The USA has already had 5 consecutive calendar years without a major (2006-2010). The last time this happened was 1910-1914, and also 1901-1905. If the USA doesn't get a major this year, that will be 6 consecutive years-- something that has not happened since 1861-1868! (I suppose it's possible that one of the 'canes in this period might have been a major, but based on reanalyzed data, none of them are believed to have been.)

Given the above... I'm hoping for some USA-based, 100-kt chase action this season.

[Floydbuster]

Yeah... I don't buy the whole "overdue" argument, because it has no scientific basis-- but that having been said, it would be exceedingly unusual for the USA to go another calendar year without a 'cane or a 100-kt storm.

For historical perspective... The USA has already had 5 consecutive calendar years without a major (2006-2010). The last time this happened was 1910-1914, and also 1901-1905. If the USA doesn't get a major this year, that will be 6 consecutive years-- something that has not happened since 1861-1868! (I suppose it's possible that one of the 'canes in this period might have been a major, but based on reanalyzed data, none of them are believed to have been.)

Given the above... I'm hoping for some USA-based, 100-kt chase action this season.

Well if 2011 is anything like 1906 or 1915...

[am19psu]

1906 #8 would be a nightmare.

[HurricaneJosh]

1906 #8 would be a nightmare.

It would especially be from a chase perspective-- there'd be that whole anxiety about whether it will hit FL or miss to the E.

[Ed Lizard]

1906 #8 would be a nightmare.

Whatever turned it around seems to have done a number on it. Katrina and Ike are about the only two storms that come to mind that were moving South of due West that weren't weakening while doing it.

Katrina really stood out for me doing that.

[Floydbuster]

Talk about anxiety...1932. A Cat-5 near the Abaco Islands moving west-northwest...then suddenly shunted out to sea.

[HurricaneJosh]

Whatever turned it around seems to have done a number on it. Katrina and Ike are about the only two storms that come to mind that were moving South of due West that weren't weakening while doing it.

Katrina really stood out for me doing that.

Actually, my feeling is that the cyclones moving S of due W tend to be under better conditions, with a nice strong ridge to the N (rather than a d*mn trough). The best example would be Anita 1977, which became a 150-kt Cat 5 while moving WSW and plowing into the MX coast.

[Floydbuster]

Actually, my feeling is that the cyclones moving S of due W tend to be under better conditions, with a nice strong ridge to the N (rather than a d*mn trough). The best example would be Anita 1977, which became a 150-kt Cat 5 while moving WSW and plowing into the MX coast.

Originally forecast to strike Texas, mind you. Goes to show a 150 kt landfall along the Texas coast is a possibility any season.

[Floydbuster]

The southeast coast of Florida is always on my mind during hurricane season...really until mid-September when the biggest threat time from Cape Verdes and the pattern ends.

The amount of damaging major hurricanes, even steady Category 4 landfalls, that occurred in Southeast Florida from 1926-1950 was extreme. Since then with the exception of Andrew and Jeanne, the east coast has been lucky. Andrew, while a Cat 5, missed the heavy population center of Miami, and Jeanne was a larger, ragged 105 kt storm striking an area already damaged by Frances while still missing West Palm or Fort Lauderdale.

If a solid 125 kt Cat 4 strikes Key Largo, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Miami or anywhere near that area...the results will be horrendous. We saw it so much last century...it makes 2004 and 2005 look like nothing.

[Ed Lizard]

OK, we know Josh is a bit of a self described tight core snob, but just for the pure history, would he park himself in Coney Island for a transitioning Cat 2/low end Cat 3 that was a pure Cat 4 or 5 monster 48 hours earlier when South of 30ºN?

If it was transitioning, and most of the wind was East of the Center, would he chase the wind and not the center? I've seen worst case SLOSH derived maps that put storm surge to near Sunrise Highway/the Babylon line of the LIRR. Try to get to high ground and film surge? I'd think the expanding wind field of a transitioning storm might support surge levels not normally associated with a Cat 2 or low end 3.

Weeniesh question, after the disappointment of Belle, I used to imagine a real TC coming to Long Island with spiral bands and everything.

[Floydbuster]

Earl could have easily caused problems in New England with just a small shift in track.

It is odd how just a little movement in a short period of time makes all the difference in the end. Had Hurricane Charley spent 4-6 more hours over water and stuck land near Tampa Bay, FL...do you honestly think it would've been the intense monster it was? Shear was just about to rip Charley to shreds...the tiny eyewall would've collapsed and after peaking at 130 kt, Charley would have probably weakened before landfall.

[Ed Lizard]

I just posted this vid in OT, but imagine if Josh got arty and used black and white film instead of video tape.

[Scorpion]

Me too.. I badly want to experience the full brunt of a major hurricane. I envision driving into the center of one and taking shelter under a highway overpass or something of that nature. I want to be in the most dangerous part of the hurricane.

[toad strangler]

Me too.. I badly want to experience the full brunt of a major hurricane. I envision driving into the center of one and taking shelter under a highway overpass or something of that nature. I want to be in the most dangerous part of the hurricane.

I am not as sure as you on the "full brunt" of a major. I used to think about that alot living up north but reality was that I knew the chances were slim to none every year. Now that I am in a much better spot for this I am wary of what I wish for. If I had the choice, I would pick a weakening 3 or a healthy 2 to test the waters. Also, having a family and home to worry about puts a damper on rooting for an all out monster major. I guess I am a big bag of wuss lol.

EDIT - I am in no way a tropical debbie downer lol. I follow each and every system that forms with interest and excitement and look forward to when Josh books a plane ticket.

[am19psu]

Me too.. I badly want to experience the full brunt of a major hurricane. I envision driving into the center of one and taking shelter under a highway overpass or something of that nature. I want to be in the most dangerous part of the hurricane.

[Ellinwood]

Me too.. I badly want to experience the full brunt of a major hurricane. I envision driving into the center of one and taking shelter under a highway overpass or something of that nature. I want to be in the most dangerous part of the hurricane.

This post has so much fail I don't know where to begin, though I think "taking shelter under a highway overpass" takes the cake.

[Ed Lizard]

Strongest I have ever experienced, inside a well built brick house, was sustained Cat 1 winds. Thats it. And that was freaking loud and spooky.

And no TV, sports or air conditioning for almost a week.

Hence, why I appreciate Hurricane Charley chase videos so much, It was shot in Florida.

[Eyewall2005]

This post has so much fail I don't know where to begin, though I think "taking shelter under a highway overpass" takes the cake.

I second this...

I for one enjoy tropical meteorology tracking tc's but I won't mind one bit if they all stay out to sea this year again. Hurricanes bring devastation and loss of life to community's and being threw my fare share i.e; Andrew in Florida city it just takes 1 storm to change your life for ever.

[HurricaneJosh]

This post has so much fail I don't know where to begin, though I think "taking shelter under a highway overpass" takes the cake.

Except for the highway-overpass part-- which was of course foolish-- what else about his post had fail in it? Any hurricane chaser who's really serious and isn't p*ssying around is seeking out the most dangerous part of the cyclone. That's the whole point. (At least for me it is.)

[HurricaneJosh]

I am not as sure as you on the "full brunt" of a major. I used to think about that alot living up north but reality was that I knew the chances were slim to none every year. Now that I am in a much better spot for this I am wary of what I wish for. If I had the choice, I would pick a weakening 3 or a healthy 2 to test the waters. Also, having a family and home to worry about puts a damper on rooting for an all out monster major. I guess I am a big bag of wuss lol.

EDIT - I am in no way a tropical debbie downer lol. I follow each and every system that forms with interest and excitement and look forward to when Josh books a plane ticket.

[Ed Lizard]

As I said, "don't dream it, be it" sadly, its for Josh, not me. Maybe a tornado tour with one of my then teenaged children and English tourists in Nebraska led by an experienced guide in 2022, but as a homeowner with kids, hurricanes should really stay in Florida. Worst case, Corpus Christi. A Houston major in 15 plus years, I'll deal. Insurance.

The old fantasy, walking outdoors to a Cat 3 or Cat 4 stadium effect eye at high noon, that was goofy. I can deal with Cat 1. Tropical storms are actually fun if there is no flooding. A Rita type storm (locally, not LCH), less than a day without power, some trees, fences and traffic signals down, but no homes damaged, perfect.

But Florida has earned its reputation from location and climatology. The Miami storm. Okechobee. The Labor Day Storm. Andrew. Charley. Wilma. Its the price they pay for not having temperatures in the mid 20s in the Winter damaging the orange trees.