Uncle Bobby Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Howdy, kiddo-- how are ya? Kiddo? LOL... maybe you should call me "Grandpa". I'm great! I don't want to clog up this thread, and tried to take it private for a brief "hello", but as usual your box is full. See ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 The GFS (which was the most agressive model) has backed off a bit from yesterday, although it still shows a TD/TS strength storm that seems to fall apart as the system approaches the lesser Antilles. That's probably due to the upper level pattern, which isn't nearly as favorable in the Caribbean as it was depicting yesterday. However, convection is ramping up a bit tonight which seems to be in anticipation for both the diurnal max and the incoming convectively coupled kelvin wave. I think there is a decent chance (40-50%) that we see this become a TC, but there are questions about what type of environment the system will encounter when it hits the Caribbean. I was hoping for something a little spicier. Can't you at least give it a positive spin? The SHIPS makes it a hurricane in four days-- why? Kiddo? LOL... maybe you should call me "Grandpa". I'm great! I don't want to clog up this thread, and tried to take it private for a brief "hello", but as usual your box is full. See ya! Ha ha ha, you're not clogging up this thread-- it's been tumbleweeds for weeks now. Nice to see ya lurking, at least. Is my box here full? I didn't realize. You can always eMail me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I was hoping for something a little spicier. Can't you at least give it a positive spin? The SHIPS makes it a hurricane in four days-- why? SHIPS is not a good tool to use for systems that have not yet become tropical cyclones, since the cases SHIPS are based on are only previous TCs. With that said, I think the medium to long range forecast for 99L is still very much up in the air. The ECMWF actually has a more favorable regime than the GFS in the East Caribbean, and perhaps its overdoing the weakening the system might observe as it crosses the lesser Antilles. My gut though, is telling me we could see a similar situation to Earl (2004) which became a moderate tropical storm east of the Lesser Antillies, but quickly unraveled as the low-level flow accelerated like is usually does in the Caribbean this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I am obviously cheering for the 240 hour Canadian, but being the Canadian, the Euro 240 of a surviving and possibly strengthening system (TD or TS judging from ~1010mb pressure but still offshore) moving NW towards Northeast Mexico, prime Jorge/Josh chase country, isn't a bad alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I am obviously cheering for the 240 hour Canadian, but being the Canadian, the Euro 240 of a surviving and possibly strengthening system (TD or TS judging from ~1010mb pressure but still offshore) moving NW towards Northeast Mexico, prime Jorge/Josh chase country, isn't a bad alternative. Metfan found this. The Canadian ensembles. No, I don't trust them either, but Josh chasing a 944 storm to his old neighborhood? It would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Really? GGEM ensembles? I guess it's that time of year again. Anyone want to post the latest KMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Really? GGEM ensembles? I guess it's that time of year again. Anyone want to post the latest KMA? Metfan posted them first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Really? GGEM ensembles? I guess it's that time of year again. Anyone want to post the latest KMA? I'll be sure to post the HIRES NAM if it makes you feel any better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Metfan posted them first. So? You are a tropical fan. You should know better. Metfan hasn't learned anything in his 10 years on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 So? You are a tropical fan. You should know better. Metfan hasn't learned anything in his 10 years on the forum. I wasn't going to post it in the actual tropical forum. I thought the chase thread was a little more lighthearted when there wasn't an actual chase underway. No more Canadian ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 I wasn't going to post it in the actual tropical forum. I thought the chase thread was a little more lighthearted when there wasn't an actual chase underway. No more Canadian ensembles... Well, this is a lighthearted thread-- but I don't think we want 1938 fantasies even here. I think we're all on the same page now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Assuming the 12Z Euro is correct, how much can a fairly weak disturbance spin up crossing the Bay of Campeche? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 I was wondering about the Day 10 prognosis as well. A closed low in the BoC at the beginning of August is at least mildly interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 In other news... I was called a "Latitudist Pig" today because I favor cyclones that are S of 30N. Is it such a crime to have this preference? I don't think so-- and so I will unapologetically embrace this title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In other news... I was called a "Latitudist Pig" today because I favor cyclones that are S of 30N. Is it such a crime to have this preference? I don't think so-- and so I will unapologetically embrace this title. South of 30N or bust. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In other news... I was called a "Latitudist Pig" today because I favor cyclones that are S of 30N. Is it such a crime to have this preference? I don't think so-- and so I will unapologetically embrace this title. That's just crazy talk. You still kiss ass with the 35N crew and it's always embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In other news... I was called a "Latitudist Pig" today because I favor cyclones that are S of 30N. Is it such a crime to have this preference? I don't think so-- and so I will unapologetically embrace this title. I'm with ya josh, everytime a TC goes above 30N, no matter the strength, it just looses the visual appeal. It all just goes (as Ian would say) "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 South of 30N or bust. End of story. Us real Tropical Dudes gotta stick together. That's just crazy talk. You still kiss ass with the 35N crew and it's always embarrassing. You're in trouble now. I can't help that I grew up at 41N and experienced my first three 'canes N of 40N. I'm with ya josh, everytime a TC goes above 30N, no matter the strength it just looses the visual appeal. It all just goes (as Ian would say) "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Us real Tropical Dudes gotta stick together. You're in trouble now. I can't help that I grew up at 41N and experienced my first three 'canes N of 40N. Seems like you underwent tropical transition in your 20's and 30's. The systems we have had thus far this year must be a dark reminder of your past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Seems like you underwent tropical transition in your 20's and 30's. The systems we have had thus far this year must be a dark reminder of your past Don't let him fool you. Next time there is anything remotely threatening the EC he will be all up in those forums reminiscing about 55kt gusts and clear skies and no rain. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Seems like you underwent tropical transition in your 20's and 30's. The systems we have had thus far this year must be a dark reminder of your past I went down to Texas and experienced a real 'cane, and then I was like, "Aaaaaah, so that's a hurricane." And there was no lookin' back. Irene reinforced my Latitudist Pig prejudice. (Although I'm sure Hugo would have helped somewhat.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Lol Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Don't let him fool you. Next time there is anything remotely threatening the EC he will be all up in those forums reminiscing about 55kt gusts and clear skies and no rain. Pathetic. WTF?? C'mon. That is just not nice, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Lol Irene. The lamest 'cane I've ever been in. I hate to crap on it so harshly, but that "eyewall" just had no kick to it. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I went down to Texas and experienced a real 'cane, and then I was like, "Aaaaaah, so that's a hurricane." And there was no lookin' back. Irene reinforced my Latitudist Pig prejudice. (Although I'm sure Hugo would have helped somewhat.) I'm good with hunkering down at the church in Sarita for my predicted cat 4/5 within the next few years. Getting a little iffy on that rest stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Jorge is a Latitudist Pig, since nothing hitting N of 25N (i.e., anywhere in the USA) is even remotely interestin' to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Jorge is a Latitudist Pig, since nothing hitting N of 25N (i.e., anywhere in the USA) is even remotely interestin' to him. And west of 120 W (lets get HI out of the way too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 And west of 120 W (lets get HI out of the way too) At least you're honest. But Iniki was hawt-- even though it was a once-in-50-year event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I can't help, having grown up on Long Island, and living through a rather unimpressive Hurricane Belle, but getting the bug, sort of hoping for a 1938 storm, although it s pretty clear the storms that look best on satellite don't get much above 30ºN. I was unimpressed with Simon and Justin's Irene North Carolina chase on TWC. Just seems like best vids come from Florida. Still impressed, considering it was 20 years ago, how much good video came from Kaui and Iniki. And wonder, if only Andrew had made landfall 12 hours earlier or later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 If one has eaten at a What-a-Burger, one will never voluntarily choose a McDonalds' again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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