Turtle Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Hey, Eleanor!! I'm actually in a dorm room on the Harvard campus in Cambridge as I type this. (Actually, we don't call 'em "dorms" in these parts-- we call 'em "houses". ) It's so nice being back here. Cambridge and Boston are gorgeous-- I forgot how much I liked it here. KEWL! You realize we've got a STS off the SE coast, I'm sure. I'm off this weekend, but back in on the holiday at 730 AM (that is, of course, Mother Nature throws us a curve!). I hope you have a BLAST at Hahhhhvahhhd. (hehe) When do you fly home? (just wondering...) --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 26, 2012 Author Share Posted May 26, 2012 KEWL! You realize we've got a STS off the SE coast, I'm sure. I'm off this weekend, but back in on the holiday at 730 AM (that is, of course, Mother Nature throws us a curve!). I hope you have a BLAST at Hahhhhvahhhd. (hehe) When do you fly home? (just wondering...) --Turtle I'm having an awesome time-- it's so nice being back here. Until yesterday, I actually hadn't even set foot in the State of Massachusetts since I graduated 20 years ago-- so it was time to "'come home", as they say. It's just been awesome seeing everyone, walking around Harvard Yard, hitting my old haunts, and so on. I'm flying back to L.A. Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Bud. It was a major hurricane threatening the Pacific coast of MX just 24 hr ago. Sorry, it was a little humor...the infared image you posted time-sensitive, showed barely a naked swirl approaching land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Bump. Well... Let's just say this one is creating "anti-tingles", because I'm stuck in Europe through the 1st-- so I'm kind of scared this will become a nice Gulf cyclone. Please, no!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Josh are you thinking 30/19/13 is a good forecast for this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Josh are you thinking 30/19/13 is a good forecast for this season? Quiet. You troll me enough on that other forum-- no need to stalk me into legit weather conversations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Well... Let's just say this one is creating "anti-tingles", because I'm stuck in Europe through the 1st-- so I'm kind of scared this will become a nice Gulf cyclone. Please, no!!1! Maybe Chris will hold together a bit longer than forecasted.....how is the chasing in W. England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 If this indeed a 1997 style burst of close in development early in the season before El Nino really shuts things down, if the world is lucky enough that soon to be Debby is this year's Hurricane Danny, except headed for Corpus Christi, I'd hope bad memories of another D storm, Don, not withstanding, plans to chase even a Cat 1 in South Texas would not be dismissed just because it isn't the 'hawtest' storm ever. Oh, clap, I just remembered the anti-tingles July 1st thing. Hoping for a prolonged stall over the loop current then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 I'm coming back to the USA tomorrow, and will remain through the fall. So the season can start now. Just wanted to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 I'm coming back to the USA tomorrow, and will remain through the fall. So the season can start now. Just wanted to say that. Good luck chasing Josh. I'll look forward to more of your videography. I think you'll have a good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Good luck chasing Josh. I'll look forward to more of your videography. I think you'll have a good season. JB on Twitter touting 1954, 1991 analogs, not sure why except they had Northeast storms, and with warmer than usual water, maybe won't have slopcanes transitioning to extra-tropical that Josh isn't so fond of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Technically, Taiwan may be an island, but it is a really big island. Amd have you seen the CFS MJO forecasts for the next six weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Good luck chasing Josh. I'll look forward to more of your videography. I think you'll have a good season. Sorry I missed this when you posted it. Thank you! Technically, Taiwan may be an island, but it is a really big island. With a ton of mountains that do a nice number on a cyclone's inflow. Just not into it. Mountains, islands, Commies, language barriers, megacyclones with loose gradients, etc. The WPAC leaves me limp. Others cover that region-- and they do it enthusiastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Not trying to be Debby Rainstorm, but lots of signs pointing to this year as a depressing mashup of 1986, 1997 and 2009. You're going to hope for a late season East Pac recurve, I suppose. Kinda too bad the El Nino wasn't stronger, in a way, with the Atlantic looking bad anyway, something favorable for a Linda except it doesn't miss the trough and does SoCal and you could chase from the hometown, that'd be cool. Would it be weakening, even in an ultimate El Nino year, from cold water off SoCal, sure, but even a videographed Cat 1 would be historic. And after the wind blown palms at the beach segment, roaring mudflows down the canyon segments, Anywa, for WestPac action, http://www.typhoonfury.com/ has typhoons and the occasional volcano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Not worried. It's July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Just watched the loop, ( http://www.atmos.alb...DSAT/allen.html ) and was thinking, would the i-Cyclone team have been happy about a major on the border, or disgusted about how badly it fell apart just before landfall? I appreciate the positive vibes of mentioning Hurricane Allen. Phil mentioned Allen in same post as 99L... I have to bump this into i-Cyclone chase thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Phil mentioned Allen in same post as 99L... I have to bump this into i-Cyclone chase thread... What's funny is that Allen formed at the end of July, too. 'Tis the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 I am liking some of the suggestions of a Caribbean Cruiser track with 99L. It's all I live for these days. My interest in weather has become narrower and narrower-- so that now I only like a specific kind of hurricane in a specific place. This fetishization of a very narrowly-defined phenomenon is troubling-- like a progressive mental illness, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Probably also side effects of not having an interesting landfall in the US since 2008... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 My interest in weather has become narrower and narrower-- so that now I only like a specific kind of hurricane in a specific place. This fetishization of a very narrowly-defined phenomenon is troubling-- like a progressive mental illness, I suppose. Admitting the problem is a good first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 The models aren't bad-- they don't scream "fish"! The GFS track is sexy. And the SHIPS now brings it to a hurricane in a few days. It's just a low-level tingle-- but it is a tingle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I recall another Ernesto that busted in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I am liking some of the suggestions of a Caribbean Cruiser track with 99L. It's all I live for these days. My interest in weather has become narrower and narrower-- so that now I only like a specific kind of hurricane in a specific place. This fetishization of a very narrowly-defined phenomenon is troubling-- like a progressive mental illness, I suppose. You just need the inevitable "perfect scenario" chase in order to satisfy your need to experience and document it. Once that DOES happen, you will be much more open to slop LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 You just need the inevitable "perfect scenario" chase in order to satisfy your need to experience and document it. Once that DOES happen, you will be much more open to slop LOL Sicko. You better just hush up. P.S. I agree with the bold part-- but only that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Lurker alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Lurker alert Howdy, kiddo-- how are ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 What's funny is that Allen formed at the end of July, too. 'Tis the season. Thats the whole reason why I posted it . Early season cape verdes have had their moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Thats the whole reason why I posted it . Early season cape verdes have had their moments. Oops, gotcha. Latest thoughts Re: 99L? More or less yummy prognosis than yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Oops, gotcha. Latest thoughts Re: 99L? More or less yummy prognosis than yesterday? The GFS (which was the most agressive model) has backed off a bit from yesterday, although it still shows a TD/TS strength storm that seems to fall apart as the system approaches the lesser Antilles. That's probably due to the upper level pattern, which isn't nearly as favorable in the Caribbean as it was depicting yesterday. However, convection is ramping up a bit tonight which seems to be in anticipation for both the diurnal max and the incoming convectively coupled kelvin wave. I think there is a decent chance (40-50%) that we see this become a TC, but there are questions about what type of environment the system will encounter when it hits the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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