HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Well my argument here is three-fold. First of all, I think we are seeing the beginning signs of a more poleward movement with Rina in the last several frames. This motion will likely continue to gradually become more poleward with time as the storm continues to move very slowly. That said, the storm has already come further west than I was expecting. In fact in the last 21 hours the system has only gained .2 degrees in latitude against 1.2 degrees gained in longitude... so its been on a close to due west track. This means the turn it will need to make in the next 48 hours to avoid landfall will need to be sharp. I'm becoming convinced it won't be quite sharp enough given the small size of the storm's circulation not having as great of an impact on the mid-level flow as I was expecting. Thus, I think we will see the center cross land, somewhere just E of Cancun. However, the strong winds with Rina will likely be on the E half of the system as it starts to move more poleward. This works against your favor unless the entire inner core moves onshore. That's a harder thing to determine at this time. The final factor is how strong will Rina be. I think the storm is about 12 hours or less away from peaking, and there is already evidence that the outflow on its eastern flank is starting to become restricted once again. As we saw with Paula last year, even small storms can be somewhat resilient of vertical wind shear if its restricted to 200mb only. It does appear that the 300mb flow will remain favorable for a longer period of time even as the 200mb flow increases. Thus, I'd only expect a slow rate of weakening even as the 200-850mb vertical wind shear ramps up close to 30 knots. Thus, I'm thinking a potential landfall intensity of 85 knots looks pretty reasonable right now. I don't think this will fall apart like the ECWMF is continually trying to predict. Thus if you can be ok with chasing an 85 knot storm where you might not get into the max winds (like you did with Jova) then I say go for it. Otherwise, you probably already had this experience multiple times in 2010. Thanks, Phil. Your reasoning makes sense to me. I think a Cat-2 landfall on the NE tip of the Yucatan seems like the most likely scenario at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Even with the crappy ECM presentation, it brings the 850MB vort center into the Yucatan just south of Cozumel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Even with the crappy ECM presentation, it brings the 850MB vort center into the Yucatan just south of Cozumel. Oh, very cool. I'm liking the consensus. Really, only the GFS has me worried, and that came a bit W tonight. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Even with the crappy ECM presentation, it brings the 850MB vort center into the Yucatan just south of Cozumel. Looks like it makes landfall twice... First near Punta Allen and then again farther north near Xelha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The problem is I'm leaving myself hanging, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So did he go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So did he go? WTNT43 KNHC 261736 TCDAT3 HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RINA REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 982 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS THAT...AT THE MOST...SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT. THUS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE ARE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS WIND RADII FORECAST AND NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1730Z 18.1N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN There is always virgin cocktails in coconut shells and the catch of the day mojo de ajo, and maybe bringing a bottle of fine aged tequila back for his business partner if he did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yes, I went. I'm en route to CUN to chase a naked swirl with a feminine name. It may be a huge bust, but given the NHC's forecast and my passion for Yucatan cyclones, I couldn't afford not to go. Simple as that. At the very worst, it'll be a nice three-day getaway in CUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 lmao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yes, I went. I'm en route to CUN to chase a naked swirl with a feminine name. It may be a huge bust, but given the NHC's forecast and my passion for Yucatan cyclones, I couldn't afford not to go. Simple as that. At the very worst, it'll be a nice three-day getaway in CUN. Have fun Josh, you still have a hurricane moving on in. It may not be a cat 3 monster but it's still likely to be fun to watch come on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Have fun Josh, you still have a hurricane moving on in. It may not be a cat 3 monster but it's still likely to be fun to watch come on in. Hey, thanks, man. That's exactly how I'm looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 lmao... Why? I'm hoping for a miracle comeback, or at least one day of good beach weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I don't expect continued weakening...at least in the short term. As a matter of fact, there's a slight possibility of some rebound in the short term, as recon is showing pressure falls in the latest fix. It will be a hurricane near Tulum to Paamul at landfall, probably a strong cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Big expansion of -80ºC or colder cloud tops can't be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good luck, Josh! As previously mentioned, Rina is firing off some pretty healthy convection right now. Maybe a comeback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Hey, guys-- I'm in Playa del Carmen. Thanks to the nice guys in this thread who posted words of encouragement. Comfortably settled and ready to rest a little. I suppose I should start an actual chase thread since I took the trouble to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Hey, guys-- I'm in Playa del Carmen. Thanks to the nice guys in this thread who posted words of encouragement. Comfortably settled and ready to rest a little. I suppose I should start an actual chase thread since I took the trouble to get here. you live the life bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Have a very successful chase, Josh! I have to agree with the others that the cold tops and good-looking convection are encouraging. Speaking of cold, it's been gloomy and drizzly/rainy here all day. With the sun getting lower, well, I am now sitting here watching flurries fluttering down outside my window, lol. I can't believe the baseball game was postponed for tonight. The RUC is hardly showing any precip for the St. Louis area for tonight. Wimps. Sorry. Way O/T I know, but hey, we're all just sitting around bored right now, aren't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Wow-- that eyewall looks weirdly awesome. Way better than I would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good luck Joshypoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Wow-- that eyewall looks weirdly awesome. Way better than I would have expected. Seriously, it looks better each frame on the IR. I hope Scott doesn't mind me copying his image link so I can bump it to the new page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks, guys. I started a chase thread-- figured why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Very nice cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hey, guys-- I'm in Playa del Carmen. Thanks to the nice guys in this thread who posted words of encouragement. Comfortably settled and ready to rest a little. I suppose I should start an actual chase thread since I took the trouble to get here. Thanks. Good luck, have fun, and happy chasing. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Goofy, Man of La mancha impossible dream question- could you get some kind of sponsorship to purchase a small truck portable Doppler radar? I was watching the tornado chaser show, the engineer-chaser (as compared to the movie maker chaser and the thrill seeker met claiming to be interested in research) had laid out $600,000 for a doppler radar apparently sufficient to measure and record velocities in a tornadic supercell if he gets close, like the DOW but smaller. The last two shows he has refused to punch cores, worried about hail damage on the radome, but that wouldn't be an issue in the deep tropics. Doesn't look commercial airline travel checked bag portable, you'd probably have to pick a territory and outfit a truck, and leave it. No idea of the logistics on garaging what would probably be a three quarter or one ton in Mexico. But you could bastardize it (pun intended) to the nth degree, and Southern Mexico intercepts would be with almost a full surface observation station. With multiple fixed video cameras. Details fuzzy, just throwing an idea out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 and the thrill seeker met claiming to be interested in research so true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Goofy, Man of La mancha impossible dream question- could you get some kind of sponsorship to purchase a small truck portable Doppler radar? I was watching the tornado chaser show, the engineer-chaser (as compared to the movie maker chaser and the thrill seeker met claiming to be interested in research) had laid out $600,000 for a doppler radar apparently sufficient to measure and record velocities in a tornadic supercell if he gets close, like the DOW but smaller. The last two shows he has refused to punch cores, worried about hail damage on the radome, but that wouldn't be an issue in the deep tropics. Doesn't look commercial airline travel checked bag portable, you'd probably have to pick a territory and outfit a truck, and leave it. No idea of the logistics on garaging what would probably be a three quarter or one ton in Mexico. But you could bastardize it (pun intended) to the nth degree, and Southern Mexico intercepts would be with almost a full surface observation station. With multiple fixed video cameras. Details fuzzy, just throwing an idea out. Like I mentioned in the Rina thread, it sounds awesome, and someone should do that, because it's a shame some of these remote landfalls go essentially undocumented. That having been said, this sort of thing is way beyond my skills set. You'd need a serious meteorological technician to handle something like this-- and while I dig collecting a little data and try to do it really accurately, the main goal for me is and always will be just to be in the cyclone-- feel it, experience it, and maybe capture a little of the experience on video so I can "bring it home" with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 OK, here's my season scorecard, rating each cyclone on a scale of 1-10 by two metrics: A) the coolness of the storm and B) the quality/accuracy of the chase. A is essentially a measure of the severity and quality of the cyclone-- i.e., was it a good one? B is rating how close I came to meeting my objectives on the chase, regardless of what the storm did/didn't do: Don A: 1. Completely disintegrated-- couldn't have been any crappier. Shockingly crappy. B: 10. Hit the center exactly, which was the stated goal. Irene A: 5. A so-so hurricane-- just kinda whatevz. B: 8. Hit the center exactly, but the winds were probably a little higher a few mi further E. Jova A: 8. A surprisingly violent little cyclone-- one of the better ones I've been in, regardless of the category. B: 9. Didn't hit the center, but pretty sure we got very close to or perfectly nailed the right side of the RMW-- so placement was near-perfect to experience the cyclone's max winds. And for me that's maybe even better than getting in the eye. Rina A: 3. Really fell apart and was basically a big bust-- but it still had a coherent, observable structure. B: 10. Hit the center exactly, which was the stated goal. In a nutshell: the cyclones under-performed but the chases all went really well. So except for Jova, I guess I'll call this a good practice year. Looking forward to 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Cool to see this scorecard. I'm glad you were able to chase Jova since that made up for the otherwise mediocre crap you encountered. For Don you should have included "landfall circulation only detectable by clear-air mode radar and pressure changes of 4 millibars". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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