HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 In other news, I am furious with Jorge for missing in action this afternoon. He's not even on Skype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah, that's how I justified it to my biz partner-- I was like, "There will not be anything else this year, and next year's gonna suck with the El Nino, so this could be my last meal in a really long time, and please don't be angry..." He was cool. He really is so supportive and caring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Casa Magna Marriott in Cancun available from tomorrow until the 31st for $83 per night. PM me if you want the hookup for the rate. Casa Magna Cancun Marriott . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Casa Magna Marriott in Cancun available from tomorrow until the 31st for $83 per night. PM me if you want the hookup for the rate. Casa Magna Cancun Marriott . Aw, thanks very much, David. I already made some arrangements, but that is really nice of you to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Aw, thanks very much, David. I already made some arrangements, but that is really nice of you to offer. No Problem. Just want your chase to be successful. Good Luck if you decide to go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 No Problem. Just want your chase to be successful. Good Luck if you decide to go for it. Thanks so much. I'll need it with this one-- the track looks like it'll be a dreadful cliffhanger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 On the NHC site... <refresh> <refresh> <refresh> <refresh> Dying to see what the 11 pm EDT track is. What's the furthest-W point in the forecast? It was 87.2W, then it was 87.0, and the last forecast had it at 86.9W. Will it continued nudging E, or will it nudge back W? So much depends on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 The new forecast track nudged E another 0.1 of a degree. I feel like I want to put my fist through a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 When is your go/no go time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 I dunno. Within the next couple of hours, I guess. I have to say, all three chase subjects this year have been unf*ckingbelievably irritating with regard to track: total uncertainty until the very last minute Re: whether a landfall might occur: Irene almost missed Cape Hatteras, Jova could have almost swung wide and missed Cabo Corrientes, and Rina is pulling the same sh*t with the Yucatan. So sick of this sh*t. Whatever happened to Janet 1955/Joan 1988/Iris 2001/Dean 2007-style landfalls? Do those happen anymore or did they run out of stock on that item? F*ck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Its your money, but a year from now, the regret will be greater if you don't go and the eye passes over Cancun, than if you did go and the center stays 50 miles offshore. You only live once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON-TIME... 29 DROPSONDE AND 9 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS WERE AVBL FOR GFS INGEST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I dunno. Within the next couple of hours, I guess.I have to say, all three chase subjects this year have been <b>unf*ckingbelievably</b> irritating with regard to track: total uncertainty until the very last minute Re: whether a landfall might occur: Irene almost missed Cape Hatteras, Jova could have almost swung wide and missed Cabo Corrientes, and Rina is pulling the same sh*t with the Yucatan. So sick of this sh*t.Whatever happened to Janet 1955/Joan 1988/Iris 2001/Dean 2007-style landfalls? Do those happen anymore or did they run out of stock on that item?F*ck. Josh, I hear ya, man. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Its your money, but a year from now, the regret will be greater if you don't go and the eye passes over Cancun, than if you did go and the center stays 50 miles offshore. You only live once. And on the other hand....... The trend is not favorable. You had a tremendous success with Jova. There will be many more canes in your lifetime with better odds than this. Why push your business relationship further than it needs to go on a mid-grade system with such a tenuous track? You may want to draw on your "relationship capitol" for some other reason, and taking a pass on this one may prove beneficial in ways you cannot anticipate now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Steady motion across tip of Cozumel and grazing Cancun so it might be too far off the mainland if it doesn't start turning soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 That's the GFS? If so, it's shifted left a bit, which is cool. Previous runs took it through the Channel-- it's been the right outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 And on the other hand....... The trend is not favorable. You had a tremendous success with Jova. There will be many more canes in your lifetime with better odds than this. Why push your business relationship further than it needs to go on a mid-grade system with such a tenuous track? You may want to draw on your "relationship capitol" for some other reason, and taking a pass on this one may prove beneficial in ways you cannot anticipate now. I totally see what you're saying-- you raise good points. The things that are pushing me to chase this, despite the negatives, are: * I have a particular interest in Mexican hurricanes-- it's sort of become a specialty for me-- an area of differentiation. * Being on the Yucatan and having a good cyclone miss would suck. Being in California and watching a good cyclone hit the Yucatan from afar would send me over the edge. So... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
left_gulley Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I totally see what you're saying-- you raise good points. The things that are pushing me to chase this, despite the negatives, are: * I have a particular interest in Mexican hurricanes-- it's sort of become a specialty for me-- an area of differentiation. * Being on the Yucatan and having a good cyclone miss would suck. Being in California and watching a good cyclone hit the Yucatan from afar would send me over the edge. So... So...........? So...........? You can't just leave us all hanging like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 So...........? So...........? You can't just leave us all hanging like that! The problem is I'm leaving myself hanging, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Phil's about to post-- most likely to dash my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 He's still working on it. I'll bet it's going to be blistering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 He's still working on it. I'll bet it's going to be blistering. Just MHO and I have no $$ riding on it, but if I was in your shoes, I'd be booking my flight to Cozumel ASAP. IR presentation looks much better than 3 hours ago, and you already saw the last MI pass. It might pass just east, but I think a western eyewall hit is getting pretty close to a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Just MHO and I have no $$$ riding on it, but if I was in your shoes, I'd be booking my flight to Cozumel ASAP. Please expand on your thinking, if you wouldn't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Please expand on your thinking, if you wouldn't mind. Sure. Shear certainly doesn't look prohibitive to strengthening, and while there is some dry mid and upper tropospheric air to the north and west, the upper oceanic heat content along Rina's forecast track is about as high as you could ask for. As far as the track goes, if you take a consensus of the 00Z GFS and GFDL, it's a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Sure. Shear certainly doesn't look prohibitive to strengthening, and while there is some dry mid and upper tropospheric air to the north and west, the upper oceanic heat content along Rina's forecast track is about as high as you could ask for. As far as the track goes, if you take a consensus of the 00Z GFS and GFDL, it's a direct hit. And it's also the NHC forecast, so maybe ya having somethin' there. The new advisory indicates the motion is still due W. This is good-- the further W it gets before the turn, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00Z GFS, GFDL, and the consensus runs (TVCA, TVCC, and TCON) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 00Z GFS, GFDL, and the consensus runs (TVCA, TVCC, and TCON) Noice. I believe the GFS has shifted left a tad-- a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Upper oceanic heat content... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Upper oceanic heat content... D*mn. You tryin' to get me all worked up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Well my argument here is three-fold. First of all, I think we are seeing the beginning signs of a more poleward movement with Rina in the last several frames. This motion will likely continue to gradually become more poleward with time as the storm continues to move very slowly. That said, the storm has already come further west than I was expecting. In fact in the last 21 hours the system has only gained .2 degrees in latitude against 1.2 degrees gained in longitude... so its been on a close to due west track. This means the turn it will need to make in the next 48 hours to avoid landfall will need to be sharp. I'm becoming convinced it won't be quite sharp enough given the small size of the storm's circulation not having as great of an impact on the mid-level flow as I was expecting. Thus, I think we will see the center cross land, somewhere just E of Cancun. However, the strong winds with Rina will likely be on the E half of the system as it starts to move more poleward. This works against your favor unless the entire inner core moves onshore. That's a harder thing to determine at this time. The final factor is how strong will Rina be. I think the storm is about 12 hours or less away from peaking, and there is already evidence that the outflow on its eastern flank is starting to become restricted once again. As we saw with Paula last year, even small storms can be somewhat resilient of vertical wind shear if its restricted to 200mb only. It does appear that the 300mb flow will remain favorable for a longer period of time even as the 200mb flow increases. Thus, I'd only expect a slow rate of weakening even as the 200-850mb vertical wind shear ramps up close to 30 knots. Thus, I'm thinking a potential landfall intensity of 85 knots looks pretty reasonable right now. I don't think this will fall apart like the ECWMF is continually trying to predict. Thus if you can be ok with chasing an 85 knot storm where you might not get into the max winds (like you did with Jova) then I say go for it. Otherwise, you probably already had this experience multiple times in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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