HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hilary is just pure perfection-- a gorgeous cyclone: symmetric, with mega-cold cloud tops surrounding a sharp, pinhole eye. What I would give to get right in the core of that. I would gladly go three years without a 'cane in return for it. Oh, the sweet agony of hawt mircocane porn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hilary is just pure perfection-- a gorgeous cyclone: symmetric, with mega-cold cloud tops surrounding a sharp, pinhole eye. What I would give to get right in the core of that. I would gladly go three years without a 'cane in return for it. Oh, the sweet agony of hawt mircocane porn... you are such a liar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 What a dreadful lull this has been. Just dreadful. I'm furious with Adam and Jorge. They've not been very supportive during these hard times-- despite my practically begging for the tiniest scraps. We're almost into October. It's do or die-- or I'm going to have to fly to Oz and chase among the kangaroos to get any real action this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I think that description just about says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 What a dreadful lull this has been. Just dreadful. I'm furious with Adam and Jorge. They've not been very supportive during these hard times-- despite my practically begging for the tiniest scraps. We're almost into October. It's do or die-- or I'm going to have to fly to Oz and chase among the kangaroos to get any real action this year. October 10th plus. It actually looks good ... hopefully steering currents cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 October 10th plus. It actually looks good ... hopefully steering currents cooperate. Thx. This is a small but important step toward repairing relations. Oh, EPAC or NATL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Thx. This is a small but important step toward repairing relations. Oh, EPAC or NATL? NATL, but the EPAC might spin one or two in the mean time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 NATL, but the EPAC might spin one or two in the mean time. OK, cool. Any details to share-- Re: why you think this or where we might be looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 OK, cool. Any details to share-- Re: why you think this or where we might be looking? Favorable high amplitude MJO wave entering phase 8 early Oct, plus some favorable low level westerly anomalies in the EPac...if we can time it right with all that energy forecasted to crash the SW USA coast, we can get a recurving storm in this basin. After that, we might see the table set for some SW caribbean action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 Favorable high amplitude MJO wave entering phase 8 early Oct, plus some favorable low level westerly anomalies in the EPac...if we can time it right with all that energy forecasted to crash the SW USA coast, we can get a recurving storm in this basin. After that, we might see the table set for some SW caribbean action. OK, cool. Thx. I think I'll do a post about October EPAC landfalls tonight. That's always a heartwarmin' topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 OK, cool. Thx. I think I'll do a post about October EPAC landfalls tonight. That's always a heartwarmin' topic. I even like those for IMBY reasons. The San Jacinto River catching fire during floods from ex-EPac Hurricane Rosa was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 The global models are really showing an active pattern for Mexican cyclones in the EPAC next week-- run after run. Adam says it's OK to have some mild tingles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 With the global models showing a really active, "Mexican" pattern in the EPAC over the next 10 days-- while simultaneously looking mega-lame on the NATL side-- I'm really pinning the remainder of my 2011 hopes on a landfall on the W coast of MX in the next two weeks. There's a do-or-die feeling-- that this upcoming EPAC burst might be the last chance to catch a good landfalling cyclone in the N Hemisphere this season. So I suppose my optimism is driven slightly by desperation. There-- I said it. I think it's important to share your inner fears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Mi inspiración. :wub: :wub: :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 With the global models showing a really active, "Mexican" pattern in the EPAC over the next 10 days-- while simultaneously looking mega-lame on the NATL side-- I'm really pinning the remainder of my 2011 hopes on a landfall on the W coast of MX in the next two weeks. There's a do-or-die feeling-- that this upcoming EPAC burst might be the last chance to catch a good landfalling cyclone in the N Hemisphere this season. So I suppose my optimism is driven slightly by desperation. There-- I said it. I think it's important to share your inner fears. I'm excited about the EPAC next week, but I wouldn't rule out a SW Caribbean storm quite yet, either. We're going to have a solid 10-14 day period of favorable conditions in the Atlantic, though part of that will be eaten up by the stupid STS next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Potential for an EPac MX landfall soon is very high, and I'm pretty confident about it ... we'll just have to wait a bit more to see how the cyclone-trough interaction goes. Like I said to Josh before, troughs are a double edged sword, since they can enhance or shear a storm markedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 TD 10E has formed. The forecast track is solid, suggesting a landfall near Manzanillo around Tuesday. The official intensity forecast peaks at 55 kt, which seems vaguely in line with the SHIPS. However, some of the other models are way more aggro, including the pornographic HWRF, which has it at 120 kt and still strengthening as it approaches the coast on Day 5. (Whoa. ) It's just a first forecast. Overall, I'll say it shows a sh*tload of potential-- and it certainly justifies some Code Yellow tingles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 The new (2 am PDT) forecast brings a hurricane ashore near Manzanillo on Tuesday-- the first explicit forecast of a hurricane landfall on this side this season. The recurve is a little sharper and a little to the right of the previous forecast-- a trend which may continue-- suggesting that the landfall might even happen on Monday. The selection of flights from LAX to ZLO isn't so hawt-- but they're wicked cheap and plentiful to GDL and PVR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The new (2 am PDT) forecast brings a hurricane ashore near Manzanillo on Tuesday-- the first explicit forecast of a hurricane landfall on this side this season. The recurve is a little sharper and a little to the right of the previous forecast-- a trend which may continue-- suggesting that the landfall might even happen on Monday. The selection of flights from LAX to ZLO isn't so hawt-- but they're wicked cheap and plentiful to GDL and PVR: What's your intensity threshold for chasing one of these bad boys in MX? (I'm sure you wouldn't have gone to MX for a Don, or would you?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Judging from the 2PM (PDT) advisories on Irwin and Jova, it looks like we might have two cyclones slamming eastward into Mexico next week, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 What's your intensity threshold for chasing one of these bad boys in MX? (I'm sure you wouldn't have gone to MX for a Don, or would you?) The current forecast-- showing a strengthening Cat 2 approaching the coast-- is enough for me to pull the trigger. I will by tomorrow morning if these kinds of forecasts persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Total hawtness with the latest forecast. I especially love the track. While something accelerating to the NE sucks in the NATL, it's pure awesomeness on this side-- it means a straight, predictable path right up to landfall. Intense tingles. Very close to pulling the trigger on this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 So it appears the weekend may bring some Josh chase entertainment. Cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Total hawtness with the latest forecast. I especially love the track. While something accelerating to the NE sucks in the NATL, it's pure awesomeness on this side-- it means a straight, predictable path right up to landfall. Intense tingles. Very close to pulling the trigger on this: The key is intensity. If Jova rapidly intensifies, it could be a Category 4 hurricane approaching Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 The key is intensity. If Jova rapidly intensifies, it could be a Category 4 hurricane approaching Mexico. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 I know this is so mega-weenie of me, but Jova's forecast track has a totally Kenna-esque vibe to it. Very October-ish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I know this is so mega-weenie of me, but Jova's forecast track has a totally Kenna-esque vibe to it. Very October-ish: Not trying to call out a track here, but on that projection it wouldn't take much for that to go right into Puerto Vallarta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Not trying to call out a track here, but on that projection it wouldn't take much for that to go right into Puerto Vallarta. Yeah, right now it looks like Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo are the most likely targets. But this can evolve quite a bit over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I think we can call the "tingles", "tremors" or "goosebumps" at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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